I don't see it that way, but OK.

It's s close group.

Maybe watch his last two races? He isn't much horse...at least yet.

Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

isnt he going to be third choice? Wont he be about 8/1?

Pletcher running Malagacy against the derby winner is dangerous. Todd has a big pair of...


...they just got a little smaller but much smarter!:)

Well at the end of the year lets look at the top 5 finishers from the derby, preakness and belmont from this year and 2015 and see who did better.

so far we have in 2016:

always dreaming
looking at lee
battle of midway
classic empire
Practical Joke



vs.

A.P.
Firing Line
Dortmund
Frosted
Danzig Moon
Materiality

A.D. is going to smoke this field.

Paul, I'm mostly going on what the race chart says. The chart comments took over an hour to show up. They even put up the 13th race before adding the Derby chart. I assume the comments were the result of multiple views of the race.

Here are the ones that I thought had at least some level of excuse: (the added bold emphasis is mine)

GIRVIN, bumped and in tight at the start, settled off the pace, moved up off the rail leaving the far turn, was checked sharply and bumped in traffic near the five-sixteenths then failed to seriously recover.

TAPWRIT was forced into tight quarters by IRISH WAR CRY at the break, steadied off heels in the opening furlong, gained while being brushed between foes near the five-sixteenths, altered to the fence in the lane and kept trying.

GUNNEVERA was jammed up at the break and bumped,regrouped to save ground early, angled back out nearing the backstretch, entered the far turn five wide, brushed with TAPWRIT past the five sixteenths, came sixwide for the drive, was floated out further in mid stretch then failed to seriously to sustain.

HENCE, in tight at the break, settled well back,steadied off heels leaving the five sixteenths, swung wide for the drive but failed to muster up the needed kick.

MCCRAKEN was jostled hard soon after the break, recovered and settled four wide, gained quickly when put to pressure leaving the half
milemarker, continued on into the lane, was bumped and carried out in mid stretch then came up empty.

PATCH chased off the rail, edged up between rivals leaving the far turn, was checked and bounced around with GIRVIN near the five sixteenths causing him to lose any chance and came up empty.

IRAP was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break, regrouped to chase three and four wide, steadied near the five sixteenths and weakened.

A lot of this is pretty much inevitable in a 20-horse stampede. I don't think any of these trips made it impossible for a superior horse to win. And all of these horses finished 10 or more lengths behind Always Dreaming. But adding these trips to dealing with the barrage of mud in the face that all besides the front runners had to deal with, plus the fact that some of them were probably uncomfortable running on that surface, there's plenty of room IMO for some of these horses to look substantially better next time out.

I'm not a ML maker. I think he's probably, at worst, the third likeliest winner.

To expand on that....TC races tend to be bet less efficiently than regular races due to a higher percentage of less sophisticated money.

I'm hoping this leads to 20-1 next Saturday.

Gunnevera won't be 20:1. He also did not have early trouble and actually got decent position ( for him ). He was wide ( three or maybe four on the far turn....but very wide in the stretch ) which could have been an excuse, and I can understand why his fans want to give him another chance. He also might not have loved the going.

Agreed. He was one of several horses that tipped out in the stretch and could not make up any ground, not only against the winner but the top 3.

Battle of Midway cost me ( and others ) a heavy tri & a $2 super.

Didn't have that horse anywhere NEAR my tickets, was one of my first tosses in fact. :mad:

Props to Jon Kinchen for putting listeners onto Limosuine Liberal. Would not have had him on as many tickets as i did w/o JK touting him.

My younger brother Dave got a lesson in turf races when he was laughing at me for most of the Woodford Reserve, as I needed Divisidero on many of the wagers I was linked into. I told him to let me know funny it is after they crossed the wire. All he could muster up was a $hit eatin' grin as my cousin and I were going ballistic after the 2 horse exploded in the stretch. An hour and 15 minutes later we were CRACKING UP at my brother because he picked the 2 horse, Thunder Snow.

I am with NTamm in thinking the O-W-D p3 came up a tad light. We were hoping for more than we got back, spending $80 on a $2 base ticket.

Looking to roll some of the winnings over into Pimlico, which somehow never seems to work out for me. I don't agree with a few on here and Twitter that think this race is a 2 horse race. It's a contentious field, imo. I wasn't too big of a fan of Pletcher's hand going into the Derby, as I thought a hot pace could hurt the chances of his only real shot of winning, in Always Dreaming. But as someone who backed Gunnevera, you couldnt watch the stretch drive replay of the FLA Derby and not be impressed somewhat with AD's finish. That was the sole reason I threw him on some/most tickets.

I would've loved to see that race run on a dry track, but it is what it is. I'm just glad that I didnt bet on Thunder Snow. :rolleyes:

Hi Ho Pimlico!

Ya saying he is the likely winner is a stretch. I can see him as third betting choice but don't there is much difference in him then many others. Always dreaming is the clear cut favorite but can lose no doubt. Empire had a rough trip as noted so we shall see how much gas is in his tank. I expect Gunnevera and Hence to be much better in this race if its dry.

Make it 11.. O'Neill adds late running Term of Art to Preakness with Jose Ortiz getting the call.

The following horses got crushed courtesy of Rajiv:

Sooneteer
J Boys Echo
Classic Empire
McCraken
Tapwrit

Classic Empire really ran lights out,deserves all the credit in the world.

A wild overstatement. There was bumping. Not a single horse got "crushed."

Feel free to point out one horse that steadied even reasonably hard.

OK.
FYI......I didn't look at the chart of this race until after your post because I thought the demolition derby at the beginning of the race was obvious.
I'm including the chart,and then point towards the following words/phrases:
Classic Empire: "hammered off stride".
Tapwrit: "forced into tight quarters by IWC soon after the break"
McCraken: "was jostled hard soon after the break"
J Boys Echo: "forced in and jostled with foes soon after start"
Sooneteer: "steadied out of the jam up and altered towards the fence"
Irap: "was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break"

But my favorite is the call for IWC: bore in at the break initiating a chain reaction of trouble"


http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20170506&RN=12

I'm not interested in the chart. I watched the race, and particularly the start, quite a few times. Nobody got "crushed." Hyperbole is a dangerous thing.

If people rely on the chart comments in KY for their wagering decisions, they are broke.

Well....
You asked for me "to point out one horse that even steadied hard".
I gave you six.
Far from hyperbole.........all I did was point out the facts.
Considering you watched the race,I'm quite surprised you can't see the obvious.

No, you quoted a chart. I watched the race. Nobody got "crushed." There was some bumping. It's a 20 horse field going 1 1/4. All things considered, there wasn't a significant amount of trouble.

What hurt Classic Empire most about the bumping was that it cost him position, something that was very valuable in this particular race. Couple that with him being forced to rally wide, and there's a more than reasonable argument that he ran the second best race.

IMO, it's best to focus on what actually happened, and how it may have affected the horses involved. Horses have trouble all the time that ultimately proves irrelevant.

Everybody watched the race........come on.
And everybody saw with their own eyes the bumper car chain reaction caused by IWC.
I just presented the chart and some of the quotes because they were accurate.
When word(s) such as "victim of the melee"/"hammered off stride"/"steadied out of the jam up"/"forced in and jostled"/"was jostled hard soon after the start"/"forced into tight quarters" appear,they are used because that's what actually happened..
And please spare me the cheap shot on the Kentucky chart callers trying to justify your mistaken view of the race.........they are skilled/trained professionals who do an outstanding job day in and day out.
Look,I'm sure you're a decent sort............but man you got this one wrong.

I feel so much better.

Sometimes horses get in trouble in races and it actual works to their advantage. So just saying or in this case repeating that a horse was subject to trouble only matters if it adversely effected the horses chances to get to the rail and or lead. Just repeating a chart can be dangerous, Oh and the paid professional line is a real dussy.. The kid working the Fryolator at DQ is also a professional

:tro:

Quick look at the field, feels like a pretty paceless race...should be much slower pace than derby.

Again with the chart talk ?
What went on during the initial stages was in plain view and everybody saw it.
I mentioned that I used the chart because it was convenient(and accurate).

From post #220,I explained that I didn't even look at the chart until last night after BTW post(#219):
FYI......I didn't look at the chart of this race until after your post because I thought the demolition derby at the beginning of the race was obvious

BTW.....I don't think the connections of Classic Empire or McCraken think your theory about trouble sometimes helping a horse out in a race applies in this instance.
But don't take my word for it by any means.

John Oxley's Classic Empire, fourth in the Kentucky Derby after a horrendous start and trip

Casse said Classic Empire was “wiped out” at the start of the race as he emerged from the gate,

“I watched the replay a couple of times yesterday,” Casse said. Honestly, I think our horse probably got more respect out of that performance (from) anyone who really watched the race, because he overcame a lot just to finish fourth. I'm proud of him, and look forward to trying Always Dreaming again.

“Classic Empire is very fast. Our intentions were to be up laying close to the pace. In fact, I told Julien that I'd love to be able to get up and get over. Because I thought there was definitely an advantage to being inside. And 100 yards out of the gate, it was pretty well over, I thought.

“And then (Sunday) Classic Empire could hardly open his eye. I don't know when that occurred, whether with all the bumping. First thing Julien said to me was, ‘I don't know how we didn't go down.' He said he really got hit hard. Anybody who has ever had the wind knocked out of him, you have to wonder about that as well.' He has about four or five abrasions on his right front — one was pretty close to needing stitches.

The juvenile champion did return to the barn with several superficial cuts, likely from the intense bumping at the start, as well as a swollen right eye. Mark Casse reported that the recovery of Classic Empire's eye would be a large factor in determining a Preakness try.

McCRAKEN (8th) – Trainer Ian Wilkes said that Whitham Thoroughbreds' McCraken came out of the Kentucky Derby with a puncture on his left hind leg, but otherwise was none the worse for wear Sunday morning.

“He just walked this morning,” said Wilkes, who normally jogs his horses a day after a race or work. [I]“I didn't want to risk the chance of infection.”[/i]

I took it easy on you.
You're welcome.

Timeline in the Belmont will be the wiseguy horse for sure

Im a fan, but today didnt prove much.

American Anthem could be a big time sprinter.

nah, think he beat a really bad field and got a very good ride....he can definitely pick up checks against the 2nd group of 3yo sprinters.

He tripped out for sure, but horses like him with natural speed will make the trip. The runner up has a big race at 7f and got a big pace to run into and couldnt get him. I thought he was OK today.

Emerging sires really on display in the Preakness this year.....
Bodemeister: Always Dreaming
Pioneer of the Nile: Classic Empire
Uncle Mo: Conquest Mo Money/Royal Mo
Dialed In: Gunnevera
Lookin At Lucky: Lookin At Lee

I'd say the Preakness is a pretty good calling card for Empire Maker also.
He's the sire of Bodemeister and Pioneer of the Nile.
I guess that's how you become a "sire of sires"........I suspect EM stud fee is going to crack 100k for 2018(currently 85k).

Not likely to run in Belmont. Per Chad Brown in Bloodhorse:

""I'll speak to Bill Farish, who manages this horse, and we'll go from there. We had spoken earlier in the day that if we had some success here, the Haskell (G1) is a race that we have a lot of interest in, with maybe one race between now and then," Brown said of the colt's near future. "He doesn't strike me as a mile-and-a-half horse, but I'm not going to declare him out of the (Belmont Stakes). I'll discuss that with Mr. Farish, but that wasn't really my plan going in here. We're still in the developmental stage with this horse."

Royal Mo injured during his work. Transported to New Bolton.

Gary Stevens: Royal Mo has fractured sesamoid, headed to New Bolton
Jay Privman

Royal Mo fractured a sesamoid bone in his right front ankle when working at Pimlico Race Course this morning in preparation for the Preakness Stakes next Saturday and is currently en route to New Bolton Center in Pennsylvania, according to Gary Stevens, the Hall of Fame jockey who was aboard Royal Mo for the workout.

According to Stevens, the fracture is non-displaced but will be career-ending.

"He won't run again, but he'll make a good daddy," Stevens, reached by telephone, said of the son of Uncle Mo.

Stevens was working Royal Mo five furlongs in company when the incident happened near the quarter pole.

"Luckily I had a stranglehold on him. He was just rattling off 12s. He was going to go in a minute," Stevens said. "I was thinking about how much I was going to let him gallop out. And then I heard a loud pop. I was hoping he had just overreached, but that wasn't it.

"He was relishing the track. The track had a good bottom. The track had nothing to do with it. He was on cruise control."

Stevens said Royal Mo had ankle wraps on his ankles and that those bandages, affixed by the groom, helped prevent further damage.

New Bolton is where Barbaro was treated for a hind leg fracture after he broke down in the 2006 Preakness. Stevens said trainer John Shirreffs was on the van taking Royal Mo to New Bolton.

unless it comes up muddy again, he will be hot and dirty. Would have been nice if Someone mentioned he had a good mud foot . One would think with all the people there, that someone would have noticed. I guess you don't notice unless you put your racing form or iPad down once in a while and look at the hosses.

barring something unforseen or a freak performance by Classic Empire, AD will have a chance for a Triple Crown..wow