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-   -   7/24 (MTH): Lady's Secret S. feat. Rachel Alexandra (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37296)

westcoastinvader 07-24-2010 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 673118)
Just so ya know.. I like them both..If they were to race one another I would not be unhappy if one beat the other.. they are both great mares. However, I would like to see Zen face a bit tougher than she has.


I do not dislike Rachel Alexandra, but at present I doubt her.

I haven't figured out what to do yet, but I'm putting up between $50 and $100 on exotics banking on she does not win this race, and perhaps runs 3rd or back.

I've been streaking pretty good in 2010, and this will be my only play for tomorrow. Fun money.

If I lose, I'll still be happy that Rachel Alexandra wins.


So I win, regardless.


I like it.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-24-2010 05:54 AM

It would take a serious injury, a DQ, or Borel to fall off for her to finish 3rd or worse.

MISTERGEE 07-24-2010 06:33 AM

I think it would take one of those instances for her to lose obviously

herkhorse 07-24-2010 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 672944)
Crazy little thought/question. Any chance JJ scratches RA due to the extreme heatwave that will be hitting the east coast tomorrow? I personally think that the whole card could have been in jeporady if RA wasn't scheduled to run. But you would think that it's a huge money day for Monmouth and they would cringe just given the thought.
Is this just a crazy talk or could it be a reality?

Phily Park has already canceled.

johnny pinwheel 07-24-2010 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader (Post 673244)
I do not dislike Rachel Alexandra, but at present I doubt her.

I haven't figured out what to do yet, but I'm putting up between $50 and $100 on exotics banking on she does not win this race, and perhaps runs 3rd or back.

I've been streaking pretty good in 2010, and this will be my only play for tomorrow. Fun money.

If I lose, I'll still be happy that Rachel Alexandra wins.


So I win, regardless.


I like it.

i would save that fun money...and bet against her when she runs back in saratoga.....she will be over bet as usual and will probably lose here because it will be real competition.

slotdirt 07-24-2010 08:03 AM

Anybody betting against Rachel Alexandra today clearly has money to waste or needs a hobby. I'm still doubting whether they'll even race today - just finished yard work outside (I have a very small yard), and already had to change a shirt.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-24-2010 08:09 AM

I just jogged two miles .. hardly broke a sweat.

It ain't easy being pretty.

Indian Charlie 07-24-2010 09:27 AM

Especially if you aren't.

Coach Pants 07-24-2010 09:31 AM

I did 15 reps of 80lb squats today.

RockHardTen1985 07-24-2010 05:02 PM

2 Funny.
Imo She Looked Like ****.

Coach Pants 07-24-2010 05:03 PM

Not impressed. Just retire her, Jessica.

Antitrust32 07-24-2010 05:04 PM

i thought she did it very easily in high heat.

10 pnt move up 07-24-2010 05:06 PM

What was up with the lugging in down the lane? How good is that 2 horse, dont even know who she is?

Coach Pants 07-24-2010 05:06 PM

pfft. Always an excuse with these "Superstars"

slotdirt 07-24-2010 05:19 PM

I don't know, those were a bunch of mules out there, but it didn't seem like she exactly exerted herself.

Indian Charlie 07-24-2010 05:33 PM

She looked underweight to me.

I think she locked up HOY again with this one.

Definitely one of the best ever.

hockey2315 07-24-2010 05:34 PM

The 2 has every right to be a decent horse. She was the only horse in the race w/ any upside. I think they both ran pretty hard (probably harder than RA should've had to) and still crushed everyone else.

letswastemoney 07-24-2010 05:52 PM

Rachel measured her opponent and did what it took to win. She knows where the wire is. ;)

(hey if Zenyatta fans can say it, so can I!)

letswastemoney 07-24-2010 06:41 PM

DRF says Jackson did not even make the trip to Monmouth. That's strange.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-24-2010 07:02 PM

Maybe the dude has one foot in the casket or something - but why go all the way to Joisey to see a paid workout in like 100 degree heat?

Indian Charlie 07-24-2010 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 673475)
Maybe the dude has one foot in the casket or something - but why go all the way to Joisey to see a paid workout in like 100 degree heat?

Why go to Joisey at all?

To get a headache maybe?

golfer 07-24-2010 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 673479)
Why go to Joisey at all?

To get a headache maybe?

Hey, some of us here used to live in Joisey, OK?

I thought Queen Martha ran pretty darn good for her 1st dirt attempt, and think she might be OK going forward.

Indian Charlie 07-24-2010 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer (Post 673484)
Hey, some of us here used to live in Joisey, OK?

I thought Queen Martha ran pretty darn good for her 1st dirt attempt, and think she might be OK going forward.

And now you don't!

Metal Man 07-24-2010 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney (Post 673469)
DRF says Jackson did not even make the trip to Monmouth. That's strange.

Jess is so old that he forgot he had a horse.:zz::zz::zz:

Smooth Operator 07-24-2010 08:01 PM

Didn't catch the fake stake … but, not surprisingly, the so-called hoty continues to prove how overrated she is/was…

hockey2315 07-24-2010 08:19 PM

110 Beyer

The Indomitable DrugS 07-24-2010 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 673518)
110 Beyer

Wait - so Queen Martha got a 105 Beyer in her first lifetime dirt attempt?

Even the Euro rejects are getting it done on dirt now I suppose. Maybe she can line up a match race with St. Trinians

herkhorse 07-24-2010 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 673518)
110 Beyer

I laughed

The Indomitable DrugS 07-24-2010 08:41 PM

I'm not buying it either ... look at what that figure (RA's supposed 110) would do to the 8th race.

I think it's a pretty cut and dry 102 that RA ran today imo.

hockey2315 07-24-2010 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 673537)
I'm not buying it either ... look at what that figure (RA's supposed 110) would do to the 8th race.

I think it's a pretty cut and dry 102 that RA ran today imo.

79. . . New tops for at least 1-2-3 in that race and a new top for Ask The Moon.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-24-2010 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 673547)
79. . . New tops for at least 1-2-3 in that race and a new top for Ask The Moon.

Yep. Using a 110 for RA's race and a 79 for the 8th race .. here's what the 8th race looks like

13 point new career top for winner Cause I Can

5 point new career top for 2nd place finisher

6 point new top for 3rd place

9 point new top for 4th place

2nd fastest figure in 25 career starts for 5th place

If that race gets a 71 instead of a 79 ... everything falls pretty neatly in line and the numbers look very logical.

Besides the 8th race and RA's race .. you had only one other dirt route - which was race 10.

In that race ...

* The winner got a 16 point career top (1st start of the claim for Rick Dutrow so a big jump up isn't that shocking)

* 2nd place 1 point off of career top, but 6 points better than last time out

* 3rd place 8 points off of career top, but 4 points better than last time out


Shave 8 points from the routes and that means the 1st Dutrow's career top would be just 8 points.. and that the 2nd and 3rd place finishers who were both dusted by a 19/1 shot .. ran just slightly worse than last out.

To me, the figure has to be in the 102-to-104 range. I went with a 102 but there's no way it's any faster than a 105.

DaTruth 07-24-2010 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator (Post 673507)
Didn't catch the fake stake … but, not surprisingly, the so-called hoty continues to prove how overrated she is/was…

She could have pulled a zenyatta and barely beat the tin cans.

I'm just glad to see the Rachel roadshow continue. She has now raced in more states this year than zenyatta has raced in her entire career. Shipping all the way to Kentucky, only to scratch on the day that Rachel is crowned the queen with a romp in the Oaks, doesn't count. zenyatta's connections weren't scared of the rainy conditions that day - they were scared of being outshined by Rachel Alexandra.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-24-2010 10:36 PM

Running a route horse off of a layoff over a wet race track is something that might get you beat.

TitanSooner 07-24-2010 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth (Post 673563)
zenyatta's connections weren't scared of the rainy conditions that day - they were scared of being outshined by Rachel Alexandra.

oh

my

god

DaTruth 07-24-2010 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 673570)
Running a route horse off of a layoff over a wet race track is something that might get you beat.

The great ones can usually overcome such obstacles.

philcski 07-24-2010 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 673555)
Yep. Using a 110 for RA's race and a 79 for the 8th race .. here's what the 8th race looks like

13 point new career top for winner Cause I Can

5 point new career top for 2nd place finisher

6 point new top for 3rd place

9 point new top for 4th place

2nd fastest figure in 25 career starts for 5th place

If that race gets a 71 instead of a 79 ... everything falls pretty neatly in line and the numbers look very logical.

Besides the 8th race and RA's race .. you had only one other dirt route - which was race 10.

In that race ...

* The winner got a 16 point career top (1st start of the claim for Rick Dutrow so a big jump up isn't that shocking)

* 2nd place 1 point off of career top, but 6 points better than last time out

* 3rd place 8 points off of career top, but 4 points better than last time out


Shave 8 points from the routes and that means the 1st Dutrow's career top would be just 8 points.. and that the 2nd and 3rd place finishers who were both dusted by a 19/1 shot .. ran just slightly worse than last out.

To me, the figure has to be in the 102-to-104 range. I went with a 102 but there's no way it's any faster than a 105.

Agree with your logic. Didn't do the card, how do the sprints line up? 102-103 sounds right eyeballing it, 110 seems much too high.

johnny pinwheel 07-24-2010 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth (Post 673589)
The great ones can usually overcome such obstacles.

how? by beating some grubs to the feed bag......thats about the extent of todays effort.

DaTruth 07-24-2010 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 673592)
how? by beating some grubs to the feed bag......thats about the extent of todays effort.

How does Queen Martha stack up against Tap Tam, Dance To My Tune, and Anabaa's Creation.

westcoastinvader 07-25-2010 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader (Post 673244)
I do not dislike Rachel Alexandra, but at present I doubt her.

I haven't figured out what to do yet, but I'm putting up between $50 and $100 on exotics banking on she does not win this race, and perhaps runs 3rd or back.

I've been streaking pretty good in 2010, and this will be my only play for tomorrow. Fun money.

If I lose, I'll still be happy that Rachel Alexandra wins.


So I win, regardless.


I like it.



Owning up, I put my $$ where my mouth was and lost.

I had the 2-3-7/2-3-7/all/all super for $120.

My only play of the day, and I was a loser.

That doesn't happen often.

I'm way ahead for gambling on the year, I thought I saw an angle for a shot today with a nice payoff and took it.

And lost.


Heck, it wasn't a great bet, but maybe arguably better odds than a lottery ticket.

No regrets.




I'm very happy that the Rachel Alexandra mystique continues.

2Hot4TV 07-25-2010 10:20 AM

Yesterday wasn't the day to try and beat her. The other girls in the race were slow and not really showing signs of improving.

R.A. did have alook that she was working a job that she doesnt like. I think you can beat her in the near future.


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