from memory of others wont big drama be alone in front?

Rachel Alexandra has a little bit of speed.

NT

he might change his mind about weight for jocks if he's going to ride!

yes but I have a feeling borel wont go right to the lead

Theres no way D Wayne is going to miss out on the crabcakes. He want's to be seen and not forgotten...

He would have been a good fit in the now defunct Sir Barton nee Barbaro Stakes... which has produced two of the last seven Belmont winners.

Hope the filly gets stuffed in this spot.


Just wish Cal wasn't on her ... I like that little bugger.



Can't say the same about Roidmussen, tho...

Friesan Fire worked at Pimlico this morning and Jones confirmed that he will be entered.

What's up with Papa Clem's snail like work today at Pimilico - 1:05 over 5f

excerpt from DRF...

Papa Clem, Friesan Fire work at Pimlico
By Marcus Hersh
BALTIMORE - Two of the three probable Preakness starters stabled at Pimlico as of Tuesday morning put in timed workouts, with Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Papa Clem going a slow five furlongs, and Kentucky Derby 18th-place finisher Friesan Fire a fast five-eighths.

Papa Clem, working alone just after 7 a.m. under Mundo Cedeno, was given an official time of 1:05 by the Pimlico clocker, and was timed in 1:05.23 by Daily Racing Form. According to the Pimlico clocker, Papa Clem posted fractions of 13 seconds for his opening furlong, 25 seconds for his first quarter-mile, 37.60 for three furlongs, 51.80 for a half-mile, and was caught galloping out six furlongs in 1:22. Those times all are slow and slower, but the Pimlico track surface apparently was very deep and laboring before the renovation break Monday. Two other horses worked five furlongs before the break, posting works of 1:06.80 and a crazily slow 1:08.60.

"It's a little slower than I thought he'd go, but I trust Mundo, and he's already fit," said trainer Gary Stute.

Friesan Fire's work came just past 8 a.m., and was done over a track that had been harrowed and watered during the break. Still, the contrast between breezes was sharp, with Friesan Fire, jockey Gabriel Saez up, given an official time of 58.40 for five furlongs. Friesan Fire posted fractions of 12 seconds for his first furlong, 23.60 for his first quarter, and 35 for three-eighths. The track clocker had his half-mile in 47.40, but Daily Racing Form caught the half in 46.94, with a six-furlong gallop out of about 1:11.90.

What, no like 37 second gallop-out for Friesan Fire this time? Honestly, I'd have to think the horse is ready to, ahem, fire if Jones is putting him in this spot.

I hated him in the Derby but Fresian Fire has a lot of positive factors here, IMO

I worry about Big Drama getting that high Beyer speed fig on the Quality Road/Dunkirk undercard. Are those the figs that were re-touched? Both Dunkirk and QR had problems after(?), though Big Drama has a few weeks more time off.

What do those of you who know more in regards to distance pedigree think of Big Drama's chances at this distance?

Montbrook is definitely not a 9.5f specialist, I'll tell you that much. I like Big Drama, but his pedigree screams mile or less.

It'll be interested to see what a Rachel/Friesan exacta box will pay.

So it turns out that if you are a resident of the District of Columbia, there are virtually zero available online wagering sites available here. Anybody know where one might be able to wager in our nation's capitol online? Twin Spires doesn't work, nor does XpressBet.

I agree, but hasn't he already won twice at 1-1/16? Plus, the race at Delta Downs was about 4 turns, wasn't it? :)

The numbers for that day were not the problem. The problem was with 1 1/8 races from a number of cards ( I believe ).

Big Drama is a very dangerous horse in the Preakness.

Just use a fake address. Seriously, you can use my address, i don't care.

I think Big Drama is the 2nd most likeliest winner of the race, despite the somewhat questionable pedigree. I think the figure from Fl Derby day was legit- and even if he goes backwards a bit off that, he's still right in the mix. At anything higher than 6-1 he's worth a bet, and I think that'll be available.

Musket Man should have finished 2nd in the Derby and he has an even more questionable pedigree for the distance.

I like Big Drama as well, not sure about him 100% on Saturday, but overall, he's a very useful horse.

This pedigree stuff kills me. I think my lesson is officially learned with Musket Man running well in the Derby. Yonaguska on top just kept smacking me in the face. Pedigree becomes more irrelevant the more they race. I think the one exception might the Belmont Stakes.

Have you met Afleet Alex or Da'Tara?

Your odds on Big Drama are very close to my own early line. I have him at 5-1.

--Dunbar

D. Wayne is something like 0 for 42 in graded stakes tries the past 18 months.

I think Big Drama (the most likely winner) is more like 7/2 on Saturday and the 2nd choice behind Rachael. Very close (at least in odds) to Big Drama will be Pioneer of a Nile at around 5/1.

I just can't believe that many people are going to be on Big Drama for this one. I think 6/1 seems much more logical, and would suspect Pioneer of the Nile, the filly, and maybe even the Derby winner will go off at lower odds than the Montbrook colt.

He's the most accomplished fresh face and I don't think too many people were fond of the also rans in the Derby.

I agree... RA will be 1st choice, Mine that bird second for some strange reason, Pioneer will be third... and I could see Papa Clem & or Musket Man & or General Quarters (just cause people remember him from the Derby) before Big Drama.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

then i will personally buy favoritism for Pioneerof The Nile!
 

Wow, I'd like 9/1 on Big Drama and hope you are right and I am wrong about what his price will be.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Bernardini was 13/1 because of Barbaro being in the race, but you are right, Bernardini and Big Drama had pretty similar resumes heading into the Preakness. Key difference is Barbaro won the Derby that year and Mine that Bird won it this year.

If it was any race but the Preakness he would be higher... it's simply the Derby winner / public money etc.

Yes but isnt Rachel Alexandra this years Barbaro?

I don't think she's quite that powerful in terms of odds impact, but she'll definitely stirr it up.

Neither do I. She still has lots to prove and maybe she will, but my money says she wont on Saturday.

2-1 is my odds cutoff for using Rachel. Less than that, I'll try to beat her, but anything higher and she gets my money. I doubt MTB will take quite that much money. I'd say POTN will be closer to 4-1 and MTB will be closer to 7-1. Never underestimate the Baffert Buzz Factor™.

I'm bettin' the horse with front bandages ;)

Is philcski.com offering 9-1 on Big Drama?

philcski.com is bidding 9-1 on Big Drama.
He's offering it at 6-1.

Keep in mind, new shooters in the Preakness are habitually underbet relative to their actual abilities. Bernardini was 13-1. Macho Again last year, despite the fact that the Derby horses had proven they had next to zero chance of beating Big Brown, was an absurd 45-1. Scrappy T, off a sparkling Withers win, was 25-1.

My odds are "true line" odds- i.e., with a 16% takeout, so unless I'm very wrong on Rachel, MTB, and POTN, the rest of the horses can only go so low.

I can't see FF being 10-1...I'd expect him to be favored over MTB actually....

Definitely an interesting exercise, esp. with this particular race.