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-   -   Top 25 3yo's 1987-2007 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20438)

smuthg 02-26-2008 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
He was controlling speed in every race he ran because he was an incredible talent.

Kelly's Landing (1.5 million)was a nice horse, Egg Head was going to be a very nice horse, Santana Strings (550k) was a nice horse. He ran against and drilled some very good horses. When he won he didnt outbob horses, he ran them into the ground. He danced every dance as a 3yo, the only race he didnt make was the Malibu because he had cancer. His 2yo season was also incredible, never running a sub 102 figure.

It is impossible to say how good he was, but its safe to say he was a monster and certainly deserves to be on a list of top 3yo.

I must agree. I think it was JJ Graci who said on ATRAB the day that LITF died that he had never seen any horse with Fog's ability to break from the gate and be three jumps in front of good horses before they realized what happened. Now, does that make him an all time great? No, but I think to say that he wasn't one of the best 3YO's in the last 25 years is a stretch...

slotdirt 02-26-2008 07:32 PM

Did I just see a somerfrost appearance? Perhaps a Derby angles list is forthcoming soon?

Cajungator26 02-26-2008 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
but i thought the question was top 25 three year olds?

It was... which is why I didn't include him.

somerfrost 02-26-2008 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Did I just see a somerfrost appearance? Perhaps a Derby angles list is forthcoming soon?


Perhaps...

Danzig 02-26-2008 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
It was... which is why I didn't include him.

i don't think anyone would argue that AA wasn't one hell of a horse (and he's one hell of a sire) but he doesn't fit this particular category.

KirisClown 02-26-2008 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I have to jump in this LITF debate here. Personally I think it's kind of silly to put him on the list. While it's not his fault no one ran against him up to the Breeders Cup, winning races over Egg Head doesnt make you great. His 3 year old season was very good. But unfortunately when he faced his best field he faltered. Maybe he was sick, but we'll never know for sure.

I think if he is on the list then Honour and Glory has to be also. He faced much better and actually defeated his elders, in May of his 3 year old season in the Met Mile, shading 1:33 for a mile in the process, while running hard every step of the way. He also had a full campaign running in California, New york, Canada and Kentucky. His record isn't as flashy as LITF's, but there is no doubt in my mind that if he was running in those races that LITF was he would have been undefeated and I think he was a much better horse than LITF.

Well said... to put him in the top 25 of the past 20 years is just plain wrong. Maybe a list based on emotions alone he'd belong, but that's about it...

For anoyone that forgets that 96 Met, it was a heck of a race.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abxSntBb0DE

easy goer 02-26-2008 10:58 PM

This is an interesting discussion certainly but the one thing I dont get is why are some folks so certain that Smarty Jones is overrated? The one horse that I find that looks most similar to him in terms of his career/three yr old season is Majestic Prince.

9 wins out of 10, and failed to win the Belmont.

But in Smarty's case he seems more dominant over his field than Majestic Prince. And, he came very close to winning the TC whereas Majestic Pr. really had no chance from the start. That to me makes his run at the TC even more exciting than MP.

I dunno if MP is in the Hall of Fame (I didnt look at the site) but clearly a close case can be made for him and if so...how can you be so certain that Smary is overrated?

SniperSB23 02-26-2008 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
This is an interesting discussion certainly but the one thing I dont get is why are some folks so certain that Smarty Jones is overrated? The one horse that I find that looks most similar to him in terms of his career/three yr old season is Majestic Prince.

9 wins out of 10, and failed to win the Belmont.

But in Smarty's case he seems more dominant over his field than Majestic Prince. And, he came very close to winning the TC whereas Majestic Pr. really had no chance from the start. That to me makes his run at the TC even more exciting than MP.

I dunno if MP is in the Hall of Fame (I didnt look at the site) but clearly a close case can be made for him and if so...how can you be so certain that Smary is overrated?

Here for starters:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/smartyjones.pdf

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/funnycide.pdf

Draw a line above Funny Cide's Belmont and compare the Beyers for the two to that point. Smarty got a 99 or 100 in the Belmont which is missing. There really isn't much to seperate them now is there? One just happened to run against much better horses and the other had the benefit of retiring right after his peak.

miraja2 02-26-2008 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
This is an interesting discussion certainly but the one thing I dont get is why are some folks so certain that Smarty Jones is overrated? The one horse that I find that looks most similar to him in terms of his career/three yr old season is Majestic Prince.

9 wins out of 10, and failed to win the Belmont.

But in Smarty's case he seems more dominant over his field than Majestic Prince. And, he came very close to winning the TC whereas Majestic Pr. really had no chance from the start. That to me makes his run at the TC even more exciting than MP.

I dunno if MP is in the Hall of Fame (I didnt look at the site) but clearly a close case can be made for him and if so...how can you be so certain that Smary is overrated?

He went in the HOF in 1988.

RolloTomasi 02-26-2008 11:12 PM

Top 25 Derby Also-Rans That Didn't Win The Preakness or Belmont:

Gulch- 87
Cryptoclearance- 87
Seeking the Gold- 88
Hawkster- 89
Lost Mountain- 91
Fly So Free- 91
Dr. Devious- 92
Kissin Kris- 93
Holy Bull- 94
Soul of the Matter- 94
Honour and Glory- 96
Skip Away- 96
Old Trieste- 98
Favorite Trick- 98
General Challenge- 99
War Chant- 00
Captain Steve- 00
Startac- 01
Harlan's Holiday- 02
Came Home- 02
Medaglia D'Oro- 02
Ten Most Wanted- 03
Showing Up- 06
Tiago- 07
Any Given Saturday- 07

RolloTomasi 02-26-2008 11:37 PM

Top 25 Favorite Derby Flops:

Circular Quay- 07
Sinister Minister- 06
Bandini- 05
Bellamy Road- 05
Tapit- 04
Empire Maker- 03
Saarland- 02
Point Given- 01
The Deputy- 00
High Yield- 00
Unbridled's Song- 96
Skip Away- 96
Talkin Man- 95
Holy Bull- 94
Arazi- 92
Technology- 92
Hansel- 91
Mister Frisky- 90
Easy Goer- 89
Houston- 89
Western Playboy- 89
Private Terms- 88
Lively One- 88
Demons Begone- 87
Capote- 87

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 11:37 PM

I'll give you a horse that I assume hasn't been mentioned, and probably has no business being on a legitimate list, but was one of the best 3YOs of the last 20 years when sound.......Unbridled's Song.

King Glorious 02-26-2008 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Top 25 Derby Also-Rans That Didn't Win The Preakness or Belmont:

Gulch- 87
Cryptoclearance- 87
Seeking the Gold- 88
Hawkster- 89
Lost Mountain- 91
Fly So Free- 91
Dr. Devious- 92
Kissin Kris- 93
Holy Bull- 94
Soul of the Matter- 94
Honour and Glory- 96
Skip Away- 96
Old Trieste- 98
Favorite Trick- 98
General Challenge- 99
War Chant- 00
Captain Steve- 00
Startac- 01
Harlan's Holiday- 02
Came Home- 02
Medaglia D'Oro- 02
Ten Most Wanted- 03
Showing Up- 06
Tiago- 07
Any Given Saturday- 07

Lawyer Ron, Artax, Louis Quatorze, Serena's Song, Tabasco Cat, Devil His Due, Corporate Report. None of them could beat out Startac or Kissin Kris in your opinion?

King Glorious 02-26-2008 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'll give you a horse that I assume hasn't been mentioned, and probably has no business being on a legitimate list, but was one of the best 3YOs of the last 20 years when sound.......Unbridled's Song.

I agree.

KirisClown 02-26-2008 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'll give you a horse that I assume hasn't been mentioned, and probably has no business being on a legitimate list, but was one of the best 3YOs of the last 20 years when sound.......Unbridled's Song.

It's a real shame he couldnt stay sound... he would have had a huge year in 97 under Zito..

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-26-2008 11:50 PM

Great thread! Would like to add my input, but everyone has covered it good in my opinion. Been a trying two days with my mother-in-law very sick in the hospital and near death. This thread is one that draws varied opinions, the type I like. The only thing I would add is; the two best three year old crops within this time frame were 1987 and 2007. I still think, if AP Indy ran in the 1992 Kentucky Derby, he would have won. Thunder Gulch was one of the most forgotten three year old colts and Point Given would have been the best of the last twenty years if.....he would the Derby (naturally) and raced as a four year old.

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-26-2008 11:53 PM

Arazi was the biggest Derby flop.....hands down, ever!

RolloTomasi 02-27-2008 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Lawyer Ron, Artax, Louis Quatorze, Serena's Song, Tabasco Cat, Devil His Due, Corporate Report. None of them could beat out Startac or Kissin Kris in your opinion?

Didn't you read the title? You can scratch Louis Quatorze and Tabasco Cat right away.

Serena's Song is a filly. I am a misogynist.

Lawyer Ron did what after the TC? 2nd in the Super Derby? Great.

Artax? A distant 2nd to Sea of Secrets in an allowance and a 2nd to Run Man Run in the Malibu? Stellar.

Devil His Due? Chased a NY-bred at Saratoga. A-one.

There was a bunch of good also-rans in '91 (Sea Cadet was in there, too). In my haste, I left off Travers winner Corporate Report.

easy goer 02-27-2008 12:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Draw a line above Funny Cide's Belmont and compare the Beyers for the two to that point. Smarty got a 99 or 100 in the Belmont which is missing. There really isn't much to seperate them now is there? One just happened to run against much better horses and the other had the benefit of retiring right after his peak.

So it's all based on Beyer numbers? I knew I was missing something.

Hey I'll bet I can post the BSF from a 3yr old campaign from a classic winner and you tell me which horse it was:

104-107-112-111-104

WHose that? Sea Hero? The Scoundrel? Dr. Fager? Tudor Minstrel?

easy goer 02-27-2008 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Top 25 Favorite Derby Flops:

You missed Sweet Northern Saint who in the final flash went off the favorite in Barbaro's '06 romp. SNS is still burning people's money at even money odds.

Seriously, that situation does not look like it's going to end pretty.

blackthroatedwind 02-27-2008 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
So it's all based on Beyer numbers? I knew I was missing something.


Don't sell yourself short....you're missing more than that.

Being that most top horses retire early, and never get to meet horses of other generations, there really is no unbiased way to compare them without using speed figures. Since Beyers are the most widespread it is hardly surprising that people use them as the example.

kentuckyrosesinmay 02-27-2008 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
So it's all based on Beyer numbers? I knew I was missing something.

The more you read, the more you will know that almost everything in horse racing depends on Beyer Speed Figures on this board.

They are the Bible here.

easy goer 02-27-2008 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Don't sell yourself short....you're missing more than that.

Being that most top horses retire early, and never get to meet horses of other generations, there really is no unbiased way to compare them without using speed figures. Since Beyers are the most widespread it is hardly surprising that people use them as the example.

You know what we ought to do is take the best sets of BSFs from three year olds to determine who really are the top 25. I wonder where Lionheart comes out. Or LITF, or Go for Gin..

RolloTomasi 02-27-2008 01:11 AM

Top 25 Lightning Will Not Strike Twice 3yos:

Honor Grades after Summer Squall
Tiago after Giacomo
Cahill Road after Unbridled
Prince of Thieves after Timber Country
Rebel Alliance after Sunday Silence
Demons Begone before Pine Bluff
Honor Grades before AP Indy
Pleasant Tap before Go For Gin
Hold That Tiger after Editor's Note
Tossofthecoin before Charismatic
Millenium Wind after Charismatic
So Long Birdie after Birdstone
Fast Play after Seeking The Gold
Citidancer before Will's Way
Excavate before Menifee
Bravo Mondo after Hansel
Corker after Strodes Creek
Exetera after Sea Cadet
On Target after Sea Cadet
Defere after Dehere
Pendleton Ridge before Lost Mountain
Exploit after Prized
Whywhywhy before Spellbinder
Spellbinder after Whywhywhy
Jazil before Rags To Riches

King Glorious 02-27-2008 01:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Didn't you read the title? You can scratch Louis Quatorze and Tabasco Cat right away.

Serena's Song is a filly. I am a misogynist.

Lawyer Ron did what after the TC? 2nd in the Super Derby? Great.

Artax? A distant 2nd to Sea of Secrets in an allowance and a 2nd to Run Man Run in the Malibu? Stellar.

Devil His Due? Chased a NY-bred at Saratoga. A-one.

There was a bunch of good also-rans in '91 (Sea Cadet was in there, too). In my haste, I left off Travers winner Corporate Report.

I don't know why I left LQ and Tabasco Cat on there. But let's look at the rest. You obviously are looking at only what the horses did in the remainder of their 3yo seasons. So with that in mind, how do Harlan's Holiday, Cryptoclearance, and Kissin Kris make it but Flower Alley doesn't? Harlan's Holiday won the Penn Derby and Cryptoclearance won the Pegasus. You make not like fillies much but isn't Serena's Song's Haskell against the boys the equal of Kissin Kris' win in the same race? I thought that Nobiz was at least as good as Favorite Trick was.

letswastemoney 02-27-2008 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Top 25 Lightning Will Not Strike Twice 3yos:

Honor Grades after Summer Squall
Tiago after Giacomo
Cahill Road after Unbridled
Prince of Thieves after Timber Country
Rebel Alliance after Sunday Silence
Demons Begone before Pine Bluff
Honor Grades before AP Indy
Pleasant Tap before Go For Gin
Hold That Tiger after Editor's Note
Tossofthecoin before Charismatic
Millenium Wind after Charismatic
So Long Birdie after Birdstone
Fast Play after Seeking The Gold
Citidancer before Will's Way
Excavate before Menifee
Bravo Mondo after Hansel
Corker after Strodes Creek
Exetera after Sea Cadet
On Target after Sea Cadet
Defere after Dehere
Pendleton Ridge before Lost Mountain
Exploit after Prized
Whywhywhy before Spellbinder
Spellbinder after Whywhywhy
Jazil before Rags To Riches

as a kid, for some odd reason i was a huge Corker fan. i had put some money on him through my dad when he first started and broke his maiden. i wonder if he's still alive.

RolloTomasi 02-27-2008 01:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I don't know why I left LQ and Tabasco Cat on there. But let's look at the rest. You obviously are looking at only what the horses did in the remainder of their 3yo seasons. So with that in mind, how do Harlan's Holiday, Cryptoclearance, and Kissin Kris make it but Flower Alley doesn't? Harlan's Holiday won the Penn Derby and Cryptoclearance won the Pegasus. You make not like fillies much but isn't Serena's Song's Haskell against the boys the equal of Kissin Kris' win in the same race? I thought that Nobiz was at least as good as Favorite Trick was.

I missed Flower Alley, too. I don't really care for Harlan's Holiday either, so he can replace him. Cryptoclearance butted heads with all sorts of good horses in '87 and the Pegasus was still Grade 1 at the time so he stays.

Serena's Song is a filly. She doesn't qualify.

Nobiz Like Shobiz was good for about the last 400 yards of the lowly Jamaica. Other than that, his performances all year were atrocious. He sucks. Favorite Trick won the Jim Dandy. That's huge in my book.

King Glorious 02-27-2008 02:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
I missed Flower Alley, too. I don't really care for Harlan's Holiday either, so he can replace him. Cryptoclearance butted heads with all sorts of good horses in '87 and the Pegasus was still Grade 1 at the time so he stays.

Serena's Song is a filly. She doesn't qualify.

Nobiz Like Shobiz was good for about the last 400 yards of the lowly Jamaica. Other than that, his performances all year were atrocious. He sucks. Favorite Trick won the Jim Dandy. That's huge in my book.

I think Cryptoclearance was a very good horse and deserves to be on the list. He just came in a really tough year. But if winning a single grade one afterwards gets you on, there are quite a few that I wonder about. Lion Heart won the Haskell. Is the Haskell no longer up to the level of the Dandy? I notice you have Favorite Trick and Fly So Free on there (both Dandy winners) but not Lion Heart and Serena's Song, both Haskell winners. If it seems like I'm questioning your opinions, I'm sorry. I'm not meaning too. I just wondered what were determining factors for you in who does or doesn't make it. For the record, I'd agree with about 80% of your list so we aren't that far off.

RolloTomasi 02-27-2008 02:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I think Cryptoclearance was a very good horse and deserves to be on the list. He just came in a really tough year. But if winning a single grade one afterwards gets you on, there are quite a few that I wonder about. Lion Heart won the Haskell. Is the Haskell no longer up to the level of the Dandy? I notice you have Favorite Trick and Fly So Free on there (both Dandy winners) but not Lion Heart and Serena's Song, both Haskell winners. If it seems like I'm questioning your opinions, I'm sorry. I'm not meaning too. I just wondered what were determining factors for you in who does or doesn't make it. For the record, I'd agree with about 80% of your list so we aren't that far off.

Lion Heart was second. I was restricting it to off-the-board horses. Serena's Song was too obvious, so I just tossed cuz she ran against fillies for the most part. Otherwise, I just went year by year and then narrowed it down to 25. I actually thought I had Corporate Report on there, but totally missed Flower Alley.

To be perfectly honest the whole impetus to make that list was to get Lost Mountain's name thrown into this thread. I always hated that horse but it's hard to deny him some recognition when he has the Peter Pan, Dwyer, and Haskell on his post-Derby resume.

NoLuvForPletch 02-27-2008 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I don't know why I left LQ and Tabasco Cat on there. But let's look at the rest. You obviously are looking at only what the horses did in the remainder of their 3yo seasons. So with that in mind, how do Harlan's Holiday, Cryptoclearance, and Kissin Kris make it but Flower Alley doesn't? Harlan's Holiday won the Penn Derby and Cryptoclearance won the Pegasus. You make not like fillies much but isn't Serena's Song's Haskell against the boys the equal of Kissin Kris' win in the same race? I thought that Nobiz was at least as good as Favorite Trick was.

If we are talking fillies, where is Silverbulletday? She won 8 Graded Stakes as a 3YO. 4 G1's, 2 G2's and 3's.

zippyneedsawin 02-27-2008 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
You know what we ought to do is take the best sets of BSFs from three year olds to determine who really are the top 25. I wonder where Lionheart comes out. Or LITF, or Go for Gin..

That may not be as easy as it appears. When the results are tabulated, they may need to 'adjust' the figures.

freddymo 02-27-2008 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg
I must agree. I think it was JJ Graci who said on ATRAB the day that LITF died that he had never seen any horse with Fog's ability to break from the gate and be three jumps in front of good horses before they realized what happened. Now, does that make him an all time great? No, but I think to say that he wasn't one of the best 3YO's in the last 25 years is a stretch...


I guess JJ never saw Groovy

horseofcourse 02-27-2008 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Here for starters:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/smartyjones.pdf

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/funnycide.pdf

Draw a line above Funny Cide's Belmont and compare the Beyers for the two to that point. Smarty got a 99 or 100 in the Belmont which is missing. There really isn't much to seperate them now is there? One just happened to run against much better horses and the other had the benefit of retiring right after his peak.

OH man...that's my schtick!! I used to get humiliated on the other board for doing this!!

SniperSB23 02-27-2008 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
You know what we ought to do is take the best sets of BSFs from three year olds to determine who really are the top 25. I wonder where Lionheart comes out. Or LITF, or Go for Gin..

Actually, that is the best idea on this thread. I wish I had access to all of them. I think 1987 was the first year they were published so they should all be out there somewhere. They (or other speed figures) are the only fair way to compare horses from different crops.

SniperSB23 02-27-2008 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse
OH man...that's my schtick!! I used to get humiliated on the other board for doing this!!

LOL, I originally credited you for it but then I wasn't sure if you'd want me to or not so I deleted it.

blackthroatedwind 02-27-2008 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
That may not be as easy as it appears. When the results are tabulated, they may need to 'adjust' the figures.

Once again, as Beyer has said, they only adjust figs in an attempt to make them more accurate.

What is your, or any of the previous posters that took silly and ignorant potshots, knowledge of figuremaking? How many years did you make them? At what tracks? Where do you stand on split variants? How do you view pace as it affects final time and do you personally adjust your numbers to take this into account?

King Glorious 02-27-2008 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
I guess JJ never saw Groovy

It's always amazing to me that pass that Groovy and Housebuster get for being brilliant in every other race and then coming up with a loss in the BC while Fog is not given the same pass. Especially since he was dead half a year later. Hell, Groovy flopped not once but TWICE, both times at odds-on.

blackthroatedwind 02-27-2008 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
It's always amazing to me that pass that Groovy and Housebuster get for being brilliant in every other race and then coming up with a loss in the BC while Fog is not given the same pass. Especially since he was dead half a year later. Hell, Groovy flopped not once but TWICE, both times at odds-on.


Housebuster was injured in the BC and Groovy didn't " flop " in the manner that Lost in the Fog did. Also, in a mild defense of Groovy, he had the unfortunate " luck " of having the BC run in California in successive years.

How familiar are you with Groovy's entire resume? How about Housebuster's before it was laid out in this thread?


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