Well, skunked in my bets. That's the way it goes. The upside:
1) she demonstrated, once again, that she's running at the level where she belongs,
2) she confirmed her ability to run on an artificial surface, thereby adding to her versatility and value,
3) she picked up a few grand more to pay the bills,
4) I now have a better chance of seeing her first win since Saratoga is within my range.
All in all, not a bad day.
Congrats everyone, and, once again, thanks Chuck and Steve for the trip.

Poor Emily nothing!

She's the root of all evil........and was probably the sole reason why Sightseek had problems with her airline today.

I am a mean girl. ;)

Welcome back from the grave. I'm not crazy how the TVG Fantasy is set up this time around...

well, if it was all her fault, then fire away! maybe you can make the next one sightseek!

i hope to make at least one more of her races this year...but we'll see. we're going to be out of pocket a good bit for hospital bills, etc, and not looking like tony will get back to work til september....we'll see!

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...071107USA8.pdf


link to the race chart.

I was kind of digging it actually----but, I messed up pretty bad last weekend. I had my little brothers bachelor party and forgot about all about Dream Rush. I just wish they showed the number of moves people have left on the scoreboard.

Sumwon ran a great race....Can't wait to witness her first victory for the Dee Tee Stable @ the Spa. Looking forward to making the trip and meeting everyone opening weekend.

lost in the last 6 strides!

willie told us she was just abit short today but she gave all she had.
no one wanted the lead so he took it. took her back to rest her but didn't want the #2 to get to far away, so they went after her.
willie LOVES our horse! told us he'd go anywhere to ride her!
another great day with the DT crew.

We'll get her to love the game yet :)
I was a little disappointed, but still proud! Runs her race everytime, now if she could only change her leads sooner.

sounds good, thanks for the info. man, it was a nail biter for sure. hate that she lost it like that, but looking GREAT!

yeah, my folks never understood my obsession--but they were pulling for her today. cracked me up listening to them--oh man, and my nephew was there too. he's about 12--he asked 'is aunt debbie driving the horse?' lol

forgot about that til just now--that's priceless right there! driving the horse....lol oh, but i wish!

Great post, Paul! This is great for everyone on this board... I was so excited, I could barely stand it and I don't even own a share.

one of the group saw the head on view and she started to stagger abit as she aproached the line.

Deb, kinda ironic that Green Door is by Danzig isn't it? :eek:

Who was staggering, someone in the partnership when they thought she was going to win, or Sumone because she hung on that lead?

I know Ive felt my knees get a little weak right before they cross the line.

that much is clearly obvious to everyone, and it is so tiresome now.

Congrads you guys/girls! She even keyed the pervert exacta (6-9) :)

Go greased lightning!!

just got back home from spending the afternoon out at AP, meeting lots of new people, watching Sumwons race, so close again.

I just have to say that you guys have latched on to such a nice one here, you all should be real proud even though she has so far only placed for you. She is real game and as you all know ran again today what could have easily been a winning race.

I have to mention something Wille said after the race that made my day.
He said in the jocks room before the race that Douglas told him "you don't have to worry about my horse". So Willie shoots back "I wasn't worried about your horse". :D That was the Pletcher horse, the 8, which Sumwon left in the dust. Willie seems like a great guy who really wanted to win for the partners today and seems to be having a blast with it.

yeah i know.....:(

well, if we had to lose to one, i'm glad it was one of his.

i kinda think it's ironic that a horse names sumwonlovesyou was behind the green door!! lol altho i'm sure no one here would have seen that movie....:eek:

:D




well maybe Morty :eek:

Please...Thebby.

was glad to meet willie at churchill, seems a nice guy--altho tony thought by seeing one of those pics that maybe he was being 'too nice'--lol...nah, not really!

that is a funny story about him and douglas tho. glad to hear you guys had a great time, and you better believe i'm proud as hell of how she's turned out.

lol

well, that just goes without saying!

Congratulations guys. I just got home and watched the race for the first time. Another good race from her.
I hope none of you are tempted to be disappointed by the fact that she hasn't won one yet. Winning horse races at places like CD and AP is pretty damn difficult. Hell, when you purchase a horse you can't even be sure that the animal will make it to the races three times, let alone turn in three strong second place performances in a row.
I guess what I'm trying to say is.....in this game there ARE points (and dollars) for second place. You guys deserve to be proud.

Fair enough, you do deserve credit for that. Certainly you handicapped this race without bias and I respect the opinions of others, hell no one is right in this game all the time, not even close. Understand, though, that those of us that are a part of this venture are a bit biased, as any owner is. I never thought she was a lock today and I was worried about her being a bit short off the layoff. That being said, I still think she was the best horse in the race and the 6 got a dream trip, but I have been around this game long enough (though mostly standardbreds) to know that you can be the best and lose. Still, you look at her last three races and the only conclusion that can be made is that she is a real competitor who wants to win, which will happen sooner or later.

She certainly COULD win sooner or later. But you never know what will happen.
I think it is important to enjoy these exciting money-winning performances, and not spend too much time focusing on the possible pot of gold (the winners' circle) that might not ever come.

Funny thing was as they were loading in the gate.. and our girl took her time, I remembered the 6-9 thing and put a quick box bet in...:p

Congratulations to the owners. She's a very nice filly and has run huge in her last two while getting anything but soft trips. One-turn/two turns, dirt/poly, she is very tough and with any kind of easier trip against similar fillies, she'll roll. It's hard to believe this is the same horse that broke her maiden for $15k at Mountaineer.

Congrats to everyone involved. She has definately been a great investment. When I win the lottery this weekend, I will be calling CHuck to find me a horse. :D

Congrats again guys! I am so happy that she is doing so well. The win will come!

Yes..way to go..never forget the "pervert" it's the best bet win or lose :p

Maybe your hosrey will wear number 11 next time.








;)

IMO, there are two reasons that you are NOT "right". First, it's very shaky to use a race to make conclusions about the odds of that race. It's a mentality that leads to thinking that the only outcome was the actual outcome. ie, the winner had a 100% chance to win the race and the rest of the field had a 0% chance to win. The outcome of a race can support or undermine a pre-race hypothesis, but it's dangerous to push that reasoning too far.

The 2nd reason I think you are not "right" is that even if you DO use the actual race to justify or reject the odds, Sumwon's performance does not invite any 2nd guessing of her odds. Sumwon's odds of 7-5 mean she would have needed a 42% (=5/12) chance to win to break even. Also, because of the 17% track take, Sumwon's 7-5 corresponds to 35% of the pool being bet on her. In other words, if Sumwon had a 35% chance to win that race, then she was neither an overlay or an underlay. (I assume an "underlay" means that you are suffering MORE than the track take.)

Do you really think that the race proved she had less than a 35% chance to win? If so, where did you expect a 35% chance horse to finish those 65% of the time when it doesn't win? Just a nose behind, and not a whole half-length?

btw, I'm not disputing your assertion that Sumwon was an underlay. (I don't have an opinion on that, because I didn't cap the race myself.) I'm disputing your assertion that the outcome of the race itself somehow shows that you were right.

--Dunbar

PS--congrats to the owners and to Cannon Shell. It's truly remarkable what you've accomplished so far!