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-   -   3/19 (OP): Rebel S. (G2), Azeri (G3) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41417)

The Indomitable DrugS 03-19-2011 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 761945)
Let me ask you this: When you predicted a 100 for The Factor, was that based on the day's times, or Havre de Grace's last three Beyers and her final time today vs. The Factor's? Tell the truth.
The pace in the 4th race was too fast for those type of horses.

If you use a single variant and ignore the pace in the 4th race ... you could have both The Factor and Havre De Grace's race a few points faster.

Ultimately, the figure will depend on what they do with the 4th race.

justindew 03-19-2011 08:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 761957)
The pace in the 4th race was too fast for those type of horses.

If you use a single variant and ignore the pace in the 4th race ... you could have both The Factor and Havre De Grace's race a few points faster.

Ultimately, the figure will depend on what they do with the 4th race.
The magical split/single variant issue. Solves many a Beyer conundrum.

Coach Pants 03-19-2011 08:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 761928)
I'm with you. I have one foot out the door anyway, that'll be the final straw.
Could you imagine the Zenyatta crowd mixed with O'Reilly viewers? It will surely be a sign of the apocalypse.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-19-2011 08:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 761959)
The magical split/single variant issue. Solves many a Beyer conundrum.
In terms of splitting variant's and cutting races loose ... the Thoro-Graph's do it far more than anyone ... Ragozin's almost never do it ... Beyer's are a lot closer to Ragozin than TG's in that regard.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-19-2011 08:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 761959)
The magical split/single variant issue. Solves many a Beyer conundrum.
If they use a single variant - you're looking at a 104-to-107 range for The Factor ... if you cut race #4 loose - you're looking at a 99-to-101 range for The Factor IMO.

justindew 03-19-2011 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 761970)
If they use a single variant - you're looking at a 104-to-107 range for The Factor ... if you cut race #4 loose - you're looking at a 99-to-101 range for The Factor IMO.
....and if they do what they normally do, which is assign Beyers based on recent other Beyers, lengths beaten today, etc etc, The Factor will get a 99 or 100. Just look at Havre de Grace and Caleb's Posse.

hockey2315 03-19-2011 09:05 PM
105 for Havre de Grace
103 for The Factor

DaTruth 03-19-2011 09:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 761900)
If they are smart with J P's Gusto, they go straight to the Lone Star, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana Derby route and make a load of cash. He ain't bad.
FTFY

Travis Stone 03-19-2011 09:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 761904)
The pace pressure for The Factor will certainly come from somewhere else.
The far turn could get ugly if Flashpoint and The Factor both make it to the Derby gate.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-19-2011 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 761995)
The far turn could get ugly if Flashpoint and The Factor both make it to the Derby gate.
Flashpoint making the Derby is the worst thing in the world for The Factor - I agree.

Alan07 03-19-2011 11:29 PM
Who's Flashpoint?

Merlinsky 03-20-2011 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan07 (Post 762007)
Who's Flashpoint?
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...e.cgi?id=21162

Then there's this little gem: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...wale-challenge

By Pomeroy out of a Two Punch mare w/2 G2 7 furlong races going up to the Derby. Sounds like a plan to me. Even if they feel he can stretch out, it's hard to see how the lack of seasoning wouldn't cause him to hit a wall. He's also nominated to the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial, but it doesn't look like they want any part of the FD field, especially. I guess they're going to the Swale and hoping for the best on the graded stakes earnings at this point. I'm still not clear on the winner's share of that race.

I read a little farther down the Brisnet link and looks like Dutrow's dubbed This One's for Phil one of his BFFs. It's kind of sweet how attached he is to that gelding.

TouchOfGrey 03-20-2011 06:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan07 (Post 762007)
Who's Flashpoint?
New York Watch: Flashpoint



Photo by Adam Coglianese, NYRA, Inc.


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