If that hadn't happened with Switch, Zenyatta retires with 18 wins and 1 second in 19 starts.

I'm really doubtful Z wins that race.

Obviously.

And Rupert is going through her past races and picking out fractions - without taking into consideration the speed of the racing surface.

Go to Zenyatta's race two starts back at Del Mar. She was 7.5 lengths behind a 50.61 half mile going 8.5fs.

One race earlier - you had an opt claiming race for fillies at a mile on the same surface go 45.59 for a half mile. The winner of that race was a filly in for a 40K claiming tag.

So, Zenyatta's race went 5.02 full seconds - or about 30 lengths - slower to the half mile than some ordinary N1X opt claiming route for females.

Here are the charts of these two races run over the same surface 30 minutes apart:

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=8

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=9


I don't know why it is - but A LOT of people are just hopelessly lost by stuff like this. If you're going to compare fractions with fractions at different tracks - you better be able to adjust for speed of surface.

I've seen hopeless $5,000 claimers cut fractions of 21 and change 44 flat and run 1:09 at Turf Paradise. There are days at Calder where the track is so slow that Grade 1 sprinters would be lucky to beat 23 flat and run 6fs in 1:12 and change. Obviously - Turf Paradise to Calder is an extreme example - but her So. Cal pace fractions that keep getting quoted are run on faster racing surfaces than ones at most Eastern dirt tracks.

Lookin At Lucky romped in the Haskell getting 9fs in 1:49 4/5. Blame won a Grade 1 at Churchill in the Stephen Foster in 1:49 1/5.

The day Zenyatta won the Santa Margarita earlier this year - Dance To My Tune and Floating Heart finished a nose apart and both completed 9fs in 1:48 2/5.

To use the pace fractions Zenyatta ran in the Santa Margarita and compare them with other horses in the BC Classic .. is every bit as stupid as saying Dance to My Tune and Floating Heart would have won the Haskell by 8.5 lengths because their final time was 8.5 lengths faster. Just ignore the speed of the racing surface.

If Steve Haskin trained Blame - Zenyatta would be 20 for 20 right now. I actually heard him suggest on Byk's show before the Classic that he thought the best way to beat Zenyatta would be to get behind her early - and because he says "she hangs a bit when she gets to the lead" he thought a horse like Blame might be able to catch her hanging late.

Just imagine Garret Gomez going into that race and trying to wrestle Blame back behind Zenyatta early on. Blame is consistantly about 12 to 15 lengths faster than Zenyatta on pace figures this year. He couldn't get behind her early on if he was strangled back.

It's another example of not taking speed of surface into consideration. It's like they had no idea how slow paced Zenyatta's races truly were because they took her fractions at face value without using a variant to adjust for speed of surface.

But the dapples...

As Costanza says "Remember, its not a lie if you believe it."

I actually tip my cap to Zenyatta for her BC Classic race - even though the speed figure was horrible and the pace collapse benefited closers and all that - knowing Smith wouldn't let her lose contact with the field, I doubted she could sustain her run for as long as she did. I even really thought she might stop.

I'd love to see how she runs next time after a race like that. I'm not a big bounce guy - but those are the type of tough races that can lead to form declines in the near term. She looked like an extremely tired horse after the race. After those California wins - she'd come back looking not tired in the least.

For a horse who was getting used to loafing early and sprinting late in all of her races - having to run very hard for the final 8 furlongs while getting that dirt in her eyes and nose couldn't have been any fun.

would have been fun to see, IMO that was the best race, along with the 08' AB that I had seen her run. The comment line should have been "won as pleased".

Lots of people predicted the exact scenario that somewhat played out, that she would have to be used early and would not be able to make a run late because of this........I guess they believe they were proven right by the result.

WOW.

Haskin has lost it.

Then again, Zenyattas great ability to expose retardism for what it is, is priceless.

If they made a profit on the race - I doubt they'll feel like the result proved them wrong.

Either way - she was a VERY poor even money shot who happened to run fine.

You have to bet against even money shots who are wildcards. The bookies in Europe almost got smoked at 7/2 on her .. but I'm not so sure 7/2 is even a fair price on a wildcard.

If you go by results - even the very best handicappers and bettors are going to be proven wrong A LOT. They're flesh and blood animals with a human on their back. If a horse improves one second over the distance of a mile - that's six lengths. Most races are so closely matched that the way they're run will ultimately determine who wins.

Well one of them had her at 10/1 chance.........she lost so I guess they were right, I just would have loved that 10/1 at the top of the stretch, and would take it any day of the week if the race is run again and again with the same dynamics.

She was not even money on my line, I had her about 5/2 to 3/1, so she wins that race better than a quarter of the time.........after the race I think I did not give her enough credit, she probably wins it like 40%. I gave horses like Quality Road, and to a certain extent LAL to much credit for some of those easy wins against nada.

Turf Turf Dirt

If Zenyatta would have run in the allowance race at Del Mar where they went the half in :45 3/5, do you think she would have been 35 lengths back? Is that what you are saying? If you honestly think that, I give up.

In the BC Classic, there was clearly something bothering her in the early going of the race. Just watch the way she's moving. She's never looked like that before. She bobbled at least once or twice. You ask Cannon Shell or any trainer out there if that horse looked comfortable in the early going of that race.

I do agree with you that she was a very poor even-money shot. I would have made her the favorite but I made her about 5-2 or 3-1.

For a guy with an IQ well over 70 - you are truly hopeless.

No, Zenyatta would have not been 37 lengths back in that allowance race because Smith wouldn't have allowed her to race that far back. She would have been a long, long way back though.


Either you're confusing Zenyatta with Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic - or you're watching Zenyatta get outrun by much faster horses than her.


OK Cannon Shell or any trainer out there - did she look comfortable while she was getting outsprinted by MUCH faster horses in a race where the pace totally collapsed?

Also, did Ice Box and Make Music For Me look comfortable in the Kentucky Derby when they closed from 24 lengths and 28 lengths back to finish 2nd and 4th in a similar pace meltdown?

With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

I dont understand why Rupert and others are claiming that some thing was wrong with her. Was whatever was wrong with her get cured by the time she hit the backstretch? She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she is used to running against.

Over/under 5.5 emoticons used in her post:

Over: -200
Under: +180

I agree with you. As you said, "She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she's used to running against." I agree with you 100%.

There are plenty of horses that take a while to get warmed up. They're a little stiff when they first come on the track but after they warm up for a while, they look ok. As you said, she didn't warm up. That is probably why she looked so stiff and sluggish in the early stages of the race. This, along with the dirt in her face, is why she was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs instead of 14 lengths back.