I'm boxing him with SC.

I'm concerned about the distance for NP, but there's no question he's a hard trier who has already outrun his pedigree, and if you can look past the pedigree he's 4x the price of L@L for virtually the same past performances.

Personally I won't be using him much because I don't think he can get a mile and a quarter but I can't argue with anyone who says he can and 12-1 is a fair price to find out at.

Derby futures
 

Looking for some help guy.
On the future bet,(pool two) Do you get the odds the horse goes off at or
What your future odds were. I have 11 horses in Derby? (the field)

3-1

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...s/futures.html

I am using Super Saver in all spots, and it pains me because I am not a fan of Smiley Borel.

3rd off the layoff, TAP trained, familiar with Churchill and better Beyer figs each time out.

Very nice horse, and I like that he was able to rate (sort of) in the AR Derby. He also should move up on a wet track. I have a sneaking suspicion he doesn't want 10 furlongs though.

If it is sloppy I'm focusing on American Lion, Conveyance and Sidney's Candy.

Sen. McConnell picked Super Saver today. Look out.

Paddy O'Prado could love the slop as well.
giving a muddy and not real sloppy track. Could be
used in deep exotics.

Nah, however I might crow if Setsuko wins the American Turf on Friday.

In a nutshell
 

1 Lookin at Lucky (Gomez) 3-1 good horse always has trouble
2 Ice Box (Lezcano) 10-1 plods up for show
3 Noble's Promise (W. Martinez) 12-1hard knocker, user
4 Super Saver (Borel) 15-1could finish last
5 Line of David (Bejarano) 30-1same as above
6 Stately Victor (A. Garcia) 30-1peaked
7 American Lion (Flores) 30-1inconsistant
8 Dean's Kitten (Albarado) 50-1nope
9 Make Music for Me (Rosario) 50-1more nope
10 Paddy O'Prado (Desormeaux) 20-1 not terrible
11 Devil May Care (J. Velazquez) 10-1 not on Sat
12 Conveyance (M. Garcia) 12-1will fade
13 Jackson Bend (M. Smith) 15-1could be in the $
14 Mission Impazible (Maragh) 20-1wouldn't be a shock
15 Discreetly Mine (Castellano) 30-1would be a shock
16 Awesome Act (Leparoux) 10-1can't back on form
17 Dublin (Thompson) 12-1the sleeper always close
18 Backtalk (Mena) 50-1no
19 Homeboychris no
20 Sidney's Candy winner catch him if you can

Here's what I'm thinking right now (I have the right to change my opinions before the race)

$2 W Line of David for sentimental reasons

Oaks / Derby Double for #2

Blind Luck, Tidal Pool / Sid Candy, Discreetly Mine, Ice Box (may add another horse or two like Jackson Bend / Super Saver / Dublin)

$1 Exacta wheel

Sid Candy / Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Dublin

I'm keying Sid Candy on top and bottom of those horses.

It's hard to fathom that the Jockies for the 2 horses I like in this Derby may be winning riders come Saturday night. :confused:

I'm thinking of exchanging Jackson Bend for Paddy O Prado. Any thoughts?

Is Setsuko going to be the classic overbet potential Derby horse who runs up the track in the American Turf? This seems to be the sort of "consolation" race for horses pointing for the Derby who are left out of the starting gate, and none of them ever seem to run well in this spot.

I like neither so I can't help.

I said the exact same thing to somebody this morning. I don't like him near as much as others. I think he wants to go further and while his first turf race was solid, it was by no means spectacular. This field didn't turn up soft either. I think a lot of people that were hoping he got into the Derby already had decided they were going to bet him and still will even though its a completely different race.

I'm a fan of the horse, but have a sneaking suspicion dirt may be his surface of choice. I get the whole "we came all the way to Churchill, might as well run a race" deal, but I'm not sure this is the right race.

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....:zz:

Conveyance from behind?? The only time he will be behind the field is when other horses are passing him in the stretch. He will be out front