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-   -   2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27855)

pick4 02-16-2009 11:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
I'd imagine he knows already what he has and he'll maximize the opportunities for him. (Or try to considering the variable of the mercurial ownership involved.)

You're probably correct in your accessment of Pioneer of The Nile.
I don't like his chances when he moves to Churchill Downs dirt. He could clunk up for a board placing but I think that's a best case scenario. If he wins the Kentucky Derby I'll be ripping tickets.

How do you think he'll run on CD dirt?

pick4 02-16-2009 11:25 PM
Here are the charts for the races at Oaklawn on Monday 2/16.

http://www.drf.com/drfChartIndexPick...&DATE=20090216

ateamstupid 02-16-2009 11:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pick4
Who's running in the FOY?
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...tch_021309.pdf

According to Privman/Watchmaker Derby Watch Capt Candy Man,This One's for Phil, Beethoven, West Side Bernie are running.

Should be an interesting race.
Quality Road, Capt. Candyman Can, Notonthesamepage, This Ones For Phil, Beethoven, Theregoesjojo, Taqarub, Break Water Edison and Jack Spratt.

ateamstupid 02-16-2009 11:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
I think that is what is amusing about this conversation about Old Fashioned. When Peace Rules was running I remember reading on the boards that he was never brilliant enough and not very good because at the time there were some really nice horses running. Now we have a horse who, while lacking true jaw-dropping brilliance, of Derby Contenders past, has been checking the appropriate boxes and like you said is the deserving Derby favorite, yet on this board and others there are people who seem to think OF isn't deservent or head of the class. Perhaps they're holding out for brilliance we may (or may not) be seeing this year.
It's February 16. Why does there have to be a "head of the class" right now? Is it that crazy to wait until a few more preps are run? I'd say at least half of the horses that'll be in the Derby starting gate haven't even gone two turns yet. Old Fashioned looks like a nice horse, but I don't think it's outlandish to hold off on calling him the horse to beat.

citycat 02-16-2009 11:42 PM
If I got my choice of horse from the SW it would have to be Flat Out. I thought that colt had a very nice run

Coach Pants 02-16-2009 11:43 PM
I thought Flat Out was exposed. I could be wrong though. These horses are getting so ridiculously slow that he could clunk up for a placing in a TC race.

ateamstupid 02-16-2009 11:43 PM
Aside from the mysterious sixth race that completely fell apart, no horse came from further than 2 1/4 lengths back to win all day. Three horses went wire-to-wire, and another three were never further than a length behind.

blackthroatedwind 02-17-2009 12:24 AM
If you like Old Fashioned you better hope he's a lot better than he was today.

He probably is......but the real question is how much better.

pick4 02-17-2009 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
If you like Old Fashioned you better hope he's a lot better than he was today.

He probably is......but the real question is how much better.

If this was his final prep it would be cause for concern. However considering it was his first race in three months and he had to press a fast horse and he put that horse away and won I think it was a good effort.

It's early on the trail and we still have Hello Broadway going two turns at Tampa in the TB Derby. The FOY might have a runner or two that are serious racehorses with a legiit Derby chance.

Why did you dislike Old Fashioned race? He probably progesses off this race.This was the first time he was near a fast early pace and he beat the winner playing Silver City's game.

blackthroatedwind 02-17-2009 12:46 AM
What's to like? He was on a pace that was mildly fast, where his distance challenged co-dueler finished second, and only a horse that broke four lengths behind the field made up any ground.

He should improve, but today's race was singularly unimpressive, especially given the hype he has received. He might be a good horse. We'll see.

Merlinsky 02-17-2009 03:02 AM
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/49261.htm

Some guy that they quote...Steve Byk, whoever that is ;)...pointed out the matching half miles for Old Fashioned and Smarty Jones. Smarty got it done later in the Derby obviously. Doesn't mean O.F. will but is it better to compare him to a claiming mare or to a past Derby prepper/winner? I get that they ran on the same day but we gotta put this thing in context of a bigger plan.

Danzig 02-17-2009 07:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Really? You think Baffert is anxious to expose Pioneerof the Nile for the ordinary turf horse he is by running him on dirt before the Derby when he can be the likely favorite to win the $750,000 Gr. I Santa Anita Derby? I'd think this one through again.

didn't baffert say he would wait til the ky derby to find out if pioneer can handle the surface? i also don't see him leaving a good thing, for a possibly not so good thing. the $$ is in cali, and seemingly ripe for the picking by his horse. besides, if he ships to churchill and loses, everyone will excuse it, and back to cali/syns he'll go. no harm, no foul.

justindew 02-17-2009 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
The Fountain of Youth will do a lot more for determining the Derby favorite than today's race did. The way that field is shaping up, people would be insane to take Old Fashioned over anything more than a nose winner of the FOY. As for him being a Triple Crown possibility, even if he's good enough, he's by Unbridled's Song. To me, every start with a US three-year-old is like Russian Roulette. He's got a LONG way to go.
So if Notonthesamepage or Taqarub wins a one-turn mile by a length, you would take that horse over Old Fashioned?

Danzig 02-17-2009 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
I think that is what is amusing about this conversation about Old Fashioned. When Peace Rules was running I remember reading on the boards that he was never brilliant enough and not very good because at the time there were some really nice horses running. Now we have a horse who, while lacking true jaw-dropping brilliance, of Derby Contenders past, has been checking the appropriate boxes and like you said is the deserving Derby favorite, yet on this board and others there are people who seem to think OF isn't deservent or head of the class. Perhaps they're holding out for brilliance we may (or may not) be seeing this year.
i think with it being only mid-february, that it's too soon to decide who is 'head of the class'.
hell, oftentimes we've run the classics and there is still debate on that subject.

Danzig 02-17-2009 07:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Aside from the mysterious sixth race that completely fell apart, no horse came from further than 2 1/4 lengths back to win all day. Three horses went wire-to-wire, and another three were never further than a length behind.
flat out was closing late-what do you feel about his run based on how the track had been playing?
also, how possible is it to tinker with a track to benefit a horses running style-in this case, old fashioned?
it would certainly help oaklawns cause to have him win, and win big, wouldn't it?
and i'm not accusing anyone of anything untoward, i'm asking if it's possible?

The Indomitable DrugS 02-17-2009 07:35 AM
The track might have been speed favoring... but considering the hot pace ... you can't move up Flat Out that much...even with his start.

I think you might find a possible live horse or two to bet next out if you go through the races there yesterday with a slow early -fast late race shape and look for a closer who either had some trouble or was hung wide. Looking for a such horse in a race that was run fast early - slow late wouldn't be as bright of an idea.

Danzig 02-17-2009 08:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The track might have been speed favoring... but considering the hot pace ... you can't move up Flat Out that much...even with his start.

I think you might find a possible live horse or two to bet next out if you go through the races there yesterday with a slow early -fast late race shape and look for a closer who either had some trouble or was hung wide. Looking for a such horse in a race that was run fast early - slow late wouldn't be as bright of an idea.
thanks!

ateamstupid 02-17-2009 08:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merlinsky
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/49261.htm

Some guy that they quote...Steve Byk, whoever that is ;)...pointed out the matching half miles for Old Fashioned and Smarty Jones. Smarty got it done later in the Derby obviously. Doesn't mean O.F. will but is it better to compare him to a claiming mare or to a past Derby prepper/winner? I get that they ran on the same day but we gotta put this thing in context of a bigger plan.
What? So it's "better" to compare two times from five years apart than it is to compare times on the same day?

XIIPointStables 02-17-2009 08:37 AM
Did the Beyer come back from Old Fashion yet?

ateamstupid 02-17-2009 08:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
flat out was closing late-what do you feel about his run based on how the track had been playing?
also, how possible is it to tinker with a track to benefit a horses running style-in this case, old fashioned?
it would certainly help oaklawns cause to have him win, and win big, wouldn't it?
and i'm not accusing anyone of anything untoward, i'm asking if it's possible?
I wonder about stuff like that sometimes too. I'm no track superintendent, but I'd think it's possible.


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