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blackthroatedwind 05-04-2008 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
Andy how did you do today with your bets for the derby I hadn't heard or read your thoughts pre race. Did you have this one figured out better than my own pitiful plays today leaving out the filly is just good enough for me to have nightmares for the month of May.


If you are a DRF Plus member you could see the videos I did with Dan Illman for all the stakes both Friday and Saturday. I actually did better overall than usual but nothing special.

I lost about $100 on the Derby. I was alive to four horses in Derby/Oaks doubles......bigger to Denis of Cork and Pyro and less to Tale of Ekati and Cool Coal Man. I boxed those four in the exacta for a few bucks and keyed Denis of Cork and Pyro in some bigger exactas. Far from my worst overall opinion....but a losing one nonetheless.

I said I wouldn't be surprised when Big Brown won by three or four lengths.....but I also said I would never bet on him.

blackthroatedwind 05-04-2008 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Uh no. The horse still was dusted and more than likely didn't run above a 96 beyer.

Just because this crop is horrendous doesn't mean I have to give this plug a pass.


He did a lot better than you said he would on this board....over and over again. I don't think anyone said he was a superstar....but many of us felt that because of the inferior quality of the field he had a chance at what was a solid price.

Once again, he didn't run great, but he ran OK and is a nice horse. Now, I have to revisit the Smooth Air thread.:D

Coach Pants 05-04-2008 01:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He did a lot better than you said he would on this board....over and over again. I don't think anyone said he was a superstar....but many of us felt that because of the inferior quality of the field he had a chance at what was a solid price.

Once again, he didn't run great, but he ran OK and is a nice horse. Now, I have to revisit the Smooth Air thread.:D

Yeah and most of those people excluded Big Brown in their picks. F.uck them if they think I'm going to apologize for the rest of the field sucking ass.

blackthroatedwind 05-04-2008 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Yeah and most of those people excluded Big Brown in their picks. F.uck them if they think I'm going to apologize for the rest of the field sucking ass.


You don't have to apologize.....but you were wrong about Denis of Cork and saying now that he ran poorly and was lucky, which is essentially what you are saying, makes you look silly.

Of course, and I mean this as a compliment, you go for silly quite often ( in a positive way much of the time ).

the_fat_man 05-04-2008 01:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You don't have to apologize.....but you were wrong about Denis of Cork and saying now that he ran poorly and was lucky, which is essentially what you are saying, makes you look silly.

Is it so obvious that DoC ran well rather than just happening to be the horse that ran last?

blackthroatedwind 05-04-2008 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Is it so obvious that DoC ran well rather than just happening to be the horse that ran last?


It's late, and I'm tired and sick, so I don't understand this....but assume you are making a joke.

He ran OK in a subpar race. I think that most of us that liked his chances were banking on this being a subpar race.

Coach Pants 05-04-2008 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You don't have to apologize.....but you were wrong about Denis of Cork and saying now that he ran poorly and was lucky, which is essentially what you are saying, makes you look silly.

Of course, and I mean this as a compliment, you go for silly quite often ( in a positive way much of the time ).

The thing that really makes me look silly is assuming a few in this race would improve and run about a 95 beyer. The fact of the matter is Eight Belles is probably the only horse that improved significantly and she died doing so.

I'll admit this. Denis of Cork is consistent when you throw out the Illinois Derby. He's consistently decent in a crop of absolute bums.

*throws up*

And I don't mind looking silly. I took a stand and was a little off. I still think this horse needs an absolute blistering early pace to win. Guess we'll have to wait and see if I'm right.

blackthroatedwind 05-04-2008 02:07 AM

It's horse racing....we're all wrong more than we're right. Nothing wrong with that.

By the way, the most incredible thing about the race, at least from a betting perspective, is that Big Truck was almost half the price of Tale of Ekati. If they were seperate betting interests in a random race on a Thursday at Belmont, Take of Ekati would have been 3:5 to Big Truck's 4:1. What about him did people like? Were people confused by his name starting with Big and didn't bother to see it was followed by Truck and not Brown?

I would like to see a matchup of the confusingly overated fivesome of Big Truck, Z Fortune, Visionaire, Smooth Air and Court Vision. I will say that Stutts seemed like a genuinely nice guy from the ESPN piece. It was cheesy...but he still seemed like an easy guy to root for.

What a great game.

Coach Pants 05-04-2008 02:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's horse racing....we're all wrong more than we're right. Nothing wrong with that.

By the way, the most incredible thing about the race, at least from a betting perspective, is that Big Truck was almost half the price of Tale of Ekati. If they were seperate betting interests in a random race on a Thursday at Belmont, Take of Ekati would have been 3:5 to Big Truck's 4:1. What about him did people like? Were people confused by his name starting with Big and didn't bother to see it was followed by Truck and not Brown?

I would like to see a matchup of the confusingly overated fivesome of Big Truck, Z Fortune, Visionaire, Smooth Air and Court Vision. I will say that Stutts seemed like a genuinely nice guy from the ESPN piece. It was cheesy...but he still seemed like an easy guy to root for.

What a great game.

Big Truck was probably the overwhelming favorite in the infield.

ateamstupid 05-04-2008 02:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's horse racing....we're all wrong more than we're right. Nothing wrong with that.

By the way, the most incredible thing about the race, at least from a betting perspective, is that Big Truck was almost half the price of Tale of Ekati. If they were seperate betting interests in a random race on a Thursday at Belmont, Take of Ekati would have been 3:5 to Big Truck's 4:1. What about him did people like? Were people confused by his name starting with Big and didn't bother to see it was followed by Truck and not Brown?

I would like to see a matchup of the confusingly overated fivesome of Big Truck, Z Fortune, Visionaire, Smooth Air and Court Vision. I will say that Stutts seemed like a genuinely nice guy from the ESPN piece. It was cheesy...but he still seemed like an easy guy to root for.

What a great game.

At the OTB, some chick was like "let's bet on the horse that sounds the slowest", and came up with him. My only explanation is that there were thousands of people that had the same angle and opinion today.

the_fat_man 05-04-2008 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's late, and I'm tired and sick, so I don't understand this....but assume you are making a joke.

He ran OK in a subpar race. I think that most of us that liked his chances were banking on this being a subpar race.

I'm not joking and my intent is not to break your balls, believe me. I know that you've been following the game for a long time, and when you banked on the race being subpar, given the way you bet it, I'm assuming that you thought the winner was a subpar horse as well. In that case, I can understand trying to beat him with horses that some would think were subpar in relation to him. But you also add that it wouldn't suprise you if he won by open lengths and to not take advantage of a $37.00 double (since you had the winner of the Oaks) just doesn't make sense to me.

And I also don't think, out of hand, that DoC is any better than some of the other closers in the race; he just happened to make the last move.

Slewbopper 05-04-2008 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
they all do at this point. what derby winner isn't the next tc winner? :rolleyes:

Giacomo

blackthroatedwind 05-04-2008 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I'm not joking and my intent is not to break your balls, believe me. I know that you've been following the game for a long time, and when you banked on the race being subpar, given the way you bet it, I'm assuming that you thought the winner was a subpar horse as well. In that case, I can understand trying to beat him with horses that some would think were subpar in relation to him. But you also add that it wouldn't suprise you if he won by open lengths and to not take advantage of a $37.00 double (since you had the winner of the Oaks) just doesn't make sense to me.

And I also don't think, out of hand, that DoC is any better than some of the other closers in the race; he just happened to make the last move.

There's probably a lot of truth in that.

As you can see from the amount I bet, I didn't bet very much in the double, and good luck finding the willpays.

2Hot4TV 05-04-2008 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Really? Who?

Casino Drive is waiting for the Belmont. The owners think that they have the hosre to get the distance. He is a half to Jazel and Rags to Riches. We will see.

zippyneedsawin 05-04-2008 09:56 AM

I wasn't a tale of ekati fan, but I was a bit surprised to see the Wood Winner at nearly 40-1.. I mean, he's not great, but he's better than Tapit!!..

blackthroatedwind 05-04-2008 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
I wasn't a tale of ekati fan, but I was a bit surprised to see the Wood Winner at nearly 40-1.. I mean, he's not great, but he's better than Tapit!!..


Why is he necessarily better than Tapit?

horseofcourse 05-04-2008 10:09 AM

Is there any chance at all Harlem Rocker goes in the Preakness?? I know he was talked about a ton here recently.

CSC 05-04-2008 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
The feet are a definite problem as already stated.
These will be the most closely watched hooves...

I don't have the stats to back this up, but it has always been my impression that Dick Dutrow horses as a rule run big races off extended layoffs, would anyone agree? If so the timing of the Triple Crown may be Big Brown's undoing and not as much to do with the competition. Dutrow usually likes to space his races out, a luxury he doesn't have here.

cowgirlintexas 05-04-2008 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse
Is there any chance at all Harlem Rocker goes in the Preakness?? I know he was talked about a ton here recently.

He was mentioned in the bloodhorse article as a possible starter.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45042.htm

CSC 05-04-2008 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas
He was mentioned in the bloodhorse article as a possible starter.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45042.htm

Things can change but this was the latest article I found on the web.

Link here for Harlem Rocker: http://www.scaredycatfilms.com/adena...ker/index.html

April 27TH, 2008

This article from the Daily Racing Form mentions that Harlem Rocker may still be pointed towards the Queen's Plate and the Queen's Plate Trial at the start of the month of June. There's also a shout out to the Adena Racing Venture, that we are a small part of. From DRF:

Harlem Rocker remains perfect in Withers
By DAVID GRENING
OZONE PARK, N.Y. - Todd Pletcher's recent assault on North America's 3-year-old graded stakes continued Saturday at Aqueduct when Harlem Rocker blew past odds-on favorite J Be K inside the eighth pole to win the Grade 3, $150,000 Withers Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths.

J Be K, who set all the early fractions under Garrett Gomez, finished second by 7 3/4 lengths over Double or Nothing. Face the Cat was last.

The victory was the third from as many starts for Harlem Rocker, a Canadian-bred son of Macho Uno owned and bred by Frank Stronach. Harlem Rocker is part of the Adena Springs Racing Venture, a package of six Stronach-bred colts that Stronach owns with other partners.


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