it's a speed bias track so Hesanoldsalt has a shot.

Invasor looks like a mortal lock
he's a single in the Magna pick 5

Everyone else is running for place money

Tap Dancing Mauk could complete the Superfecta

Gander, are you predicting how the betting will go, or is that an estimate of "fair odds"?

Here's my preliminary fair odds line:

PP# Horse Fair odds
1 Invasor 1-1
2 Halos Sailing Sain 60
3 AP Arrow 15
4 Chatain 10
5 Tap Dancing Mauk 125
6 Hesanoldsalt 12
7 Magna Grad 15
8 Barcola 15
9 Strong contender 10

IMO Invasor has about a 50% chance to win the race. If he has half the money in the win pool bet on him, he will be bet down to around 3-5. If he gets bet down further than that, I think he becomes a bet-against.

Anyone else think Barcola, shedding 14 lbs from his last race, is worth a look if 25-1?

--Dunbar

Strong Contender is scratched.

It is a good scratch in my opinion. The horse didnt really have a shot in this race IMO. Tough post, the race doesnt set up for him well. There are other races he could go in that are easier.

Barcola is at least going to be in front for the majority of the race. Theres nothing wrong with taking a shot with a horse you know is going to be involved and going to be trying. I cant see him winning but you never know.

Those odds were just what I thought the betting public would bet each horse down to (appx). In no way do I think 9/2 is fair for Magna Graduate. I side with those on here who regard him as never being able to run big against the best horses and Invasor should go right by him at will.

I think Invasor wins this at 80%.

My day is ruined.

It is a disappointment for us.

Do the connections of Strong Contender realize Seattle Allstar has said Invasor is free money?

they must have missed that, or they would have entered a second horse just in case SC couldn't make it.

That's fine, I get paid even more when I single Hesanoldsalt now......

With the scratch of Strong Contender, I have Invasor at almost 60% to win it. So, we are converging! ;>)

--Dunbar