Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63955)

blackthroatedwind 05-24-2018 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1110059)
Hofburg had a brutal ride in the Derby...and was still running hard at the end. There’s definitely a lot to like but if he’s going off as the 2nd choice then I don’t know. I’d probably lean toward Tenfold and Blended Citizen as better values.

There was nothing wrong with his ride in the Derby. Mediocre trips aren't always rider's faults.

blackthroatedwind 05-24-2018 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1110069)
I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

It's turned into that by misuse.....sort of like the subversion of the word "value" in racing. A horse doesn't have value just because it's a big price.

moses 05-24-2018 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1110076)
There was nothing wrong with his ride in the Derby. Mediocre trips aren't always rider's faults.

You’re right. I meant to say brutal trip and didn’t mean to cast blame on the rider. I don’t think there was much the rider could have done to make it better.

RHT2004 05-24-2018 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1110046)
Agreed, though I think he’s a serious racehorse.

I think Free Drop Billy sucks.

Agree.

richard burch 05-24-2018 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1110039)
He trains the horses. He doesn't own them (at least these). Owner Gary West wants to run Restoring Hope. And he's not a guy to argue with.


I assume this has happened before in the Belmont but its still strange to me. I understand training multiples for the Derby but its not reality to think that B.B doesn't want Justify to win. Its not like he is sending a rabbit for him to close in to. I'm sure he will be happy if R.H wins but not as happy the other way around.

Interesting none the less and I would like to hear that post race press conference.

Rupert Pupkin 05-25-2018 03:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1110069)
I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.

Hickory Hill Hoff 05-25-2018 04:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 1110050)
I think that Blended Citizen might also be a candidate for that role having already won a race at Belmont (please note that I did not use the term "wise guy" :):D)

The "smart guy" horse to use underneath Justify :$: I totally agree!

blackthroatedwind 05-25-2018 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 1110088)
I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.


The definition hasn't changed....it's been subverted by people using the term inaccurately.

Been meaning to ask, how's your former protégé KYRIM?

declansharbor 05-27-2018 06:36 PM

Blended Citizen with a SHARP bullet workout @ Belmont this weekend.

Alabama Stakes 05-27-2018 07:58 PM

Maybe he will be the wise guy Hoss in the Belmont. The first wise guy hoss that I remember was McKenzie Bridge in the Belmont against Bold Forbes in 76. He was flying late and almost got up at a big price. I think this Belmont could be a similar type race with Justify on the engine 5 or 6 in front, though not necessarily in the 8 path. I'd be surprised if he didn't widen his lead and win by many but they could run in late.

taxicab 05-31-2018 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1110274)
I think this Belmont could be a similar type race with Justify on the engine 5 or 6 in front

It might be 10+ open if something with some gas doesn't appear in the entry box.

Merlinsky 06-02-2018 04:35 PM

So what was up with that work by Blended Citizen? http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42870-bl...belmont-stakes

moses 06-03-2018 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 1110497)
So what was up with that work by Blended Citizen? http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42870-bl...belmont-stakes

Yeesh. I like Blended Citizen for this race but may have to re-evaluate.

moses 06-05-2018 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1110592)
Yeesh. I like Blended Citizen for this race but may have to re-evaluate.

Doesn’t seem as troublesome as I first thought. BC looked good in those 5 furlongs.

moses 06-05-2018 10:01 AM

Out of curiosity, does anyone give any weight to Jody Demling? I always see CBS bragging about his record but it seems like a lot of fluff and hype.

Kasept 06-05-2018 04:56 PM

1. Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) 4/5
2. Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado) 30-1
3. Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) 8-1
4. Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 9-2
5. Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert/Florent Giroux) 30-1
6. Gronkowski (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) 12-1
7. Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 12-1
8. Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 8-1
9. Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) 30-1
10. Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill/Kyle Frey) 15-1

raininthrees 06-05-2018 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1110719)
1. Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) 4/5
2. Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado) 30-1
3. Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) 8-1
4. Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 9-2
5. Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert/Florent Giroux) 30-1
6. Gronkowski (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) 12-1
7. Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 12-1
8. Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 8-1
9. Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) 30-1
10. Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill/Kyle Frey) 15-1


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiKcd7yPLdU

Merlinsky 06-06-2018 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1110719)
1. Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) 4/5
2. Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado) 30-1
3. Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) 8-1
4. Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 9-2
5. Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert/Florent Giroux) 30-1
6. Gronkowski (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) 12-1
7. Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 12-1
8. Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 8-1
9. Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) 30-1
10. Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill/Kyle Frey) 15-1

Dale was in fine form for the post-draw panel. They were all great, but him in particular. If NBC's coverage of horse racing started off with a tight 5min from Dale Romans, I think you'd see a definite boost to the numbers. ;)

FATPIANO 06-06-2018 03:29 PM

Dale has FDB ready to run the race of his life. 3 bullets in his holster. And he is not gonna be wide this time. Watch out. He I a very real love longshot to juice up the exotics.

Merlinsky 06-06-2018 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1110709)
Doesn’t seem as troublesome as I first thought. BC looked good in those 5 furlongs.

During the work, sure, wouldn't have noticed anything amiss, but I never love hearing that description for how a horse wraps up their work. Is there a scenario where it's actually indicative of something positive or at least not negative? Of course Doug's gonna say it's fine. Could be, but eh.

Any thoughts on Hofburg yesterday? Seemed to recover his stride from that stumble (about 32 sec in on this footage), but you don't love the disruption. https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status...36720482926592

Alabama Stakes 06-06-2018 04:22 PM

I didn’t like the way he went. He looks tight and won’t be on any of my tickets

moses 06-06-2018 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 1110756)
During the work, sure, wouldn't have noticed anything amiss, but I never love hearing that description for how a horse wraps up their work. Is there a scenario where it's actually indicative of something positive or at least not negative? Of course Doug's gonna say it's fine. Could be, but eh.

Any thoughts on Hofburg yesterday? Seemed to recover his stride from that stumble (about 32 sec in on this footage), but you don't love the disruption. https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status...36720482926592

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1110759)
I didn’t like the way he went. He looks tight and won’t be on any of my tickets

That workout is a little more concerning. He recovers but looks to me like he doesn’t want to run.

moses 06-06-2018 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1110759)
I didn’t like the way he went. He looks tight and won’t be on any of my tickets

Before doing that, I’m going to look at his other workouts. I try not to throw a horse out for one bad race, probably fair not to do it for one bad work either.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:36 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.