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-   -   '17 CROWN TRAIL THREAD: Always Dreaming; Cloud Computing; Tapwrit (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61911)

richard burch 05-02-2017 09:56 PM

I already feel bad for whoever gets the 1 post. doomed at the start....and the 2 and 3 aren't much better. I always eliminate those 3 posts from any handicapping.

It’s been 31 years since a winner has come out of the inside-most post.

Indian Charlie 05-02-2017 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1090227)
I already feel bad for whoever gets the 1 post. doomed at the start....and the 2 and 3 aren't much better. I always eliminate those 3 posts from any handicapping.

It’s been 31 years since a winner has come out of the inside-most post.

You do realize that with twenty entries almost every year the one post should have one or two wins in thirty one years?

Kasept 05-03-2017 04:32 AM

Epicharis confirmed for Belmont Stakes; eligible for $1M bonus
By Dave Grening

Epicharis, the Japanese-bred 3-year-old who would have been eligible to run in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, was confirmed as a starter for the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes on June 10, it was announced late Tuesday night.

Should he win the Belmont, Epicharis would earn his connections a $1 million bonus the New York Racing Association announced earlier this year it was offering for any Japanese-based horse that would come and win the 1 1-2-mile race. That is on top of the $800,000 first-place purse.

It is expected that the Belmont will be offered for wagering in Japan, making it the first Triple Crown race available for simulcast in that country. Wagering will be conducted through a separate, non-commingled pool.

This will mark the second straight year that a Japanese-bred horse will run in the Belmont Stakes. Last year, Lani participated in all three Triple Crown races, his best finish being a third in the Belmont behind Creator and Destin.

Epicharis, a son of Gold Allure trained by Kiyoshi Hagiwara, won his first four starts before getting beat a nose by Thunder Snow in the $2 million UAE Derby at Meydan on March 27. Epicharis had been eligible to compete in the Kentucky Derby by earning the most qualifying points from two races that Churchill Downs dubbed as the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Epicharis is expected to ship to Belmont on June 1. His regular rider Christophe Lemaire will have the mount.

Epicharis is owned by U. Carrot Farm, a Japanese-based syndicate that won the 2005 American Oaks at Hollywood Park with Cesario, believed to be the first Japanese-bred Grade 1 winner in the U.S.

Kasept 05-03-2017 10:19 AM

143rd KENTUCKY DERBY

1 Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie) 20-1
2 Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) 20-1
3 Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Channing Hill) 50-1
4 Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
5 Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 5-1
6 State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) 30-1
7 Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) 15-1
8 Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux 15-1
9 Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) 20-1
10 Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) 15-1
11 Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavian Prat) 30-1
12 Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) 50-1
13 J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) 20-1
14 Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 4-1
15 McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 5-1
16 Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20-1
17 Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) 6-1
18 Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) 15-1
19 Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) 20-1
20 Patch (Todd Pletcher/Tyler Gaffalione) 30-1
AE/21. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) 20-1
AE/22. Master Plan (Todd Pletcher/) 50-1

hondo 05-03-2017 10:30 AM

Steve ...thanks

Your opinion....who was compromised who was helped...Appears to be speed seated in 2-6 except Untrapped)...#1 Lookin at Lee a closer so may not be hurt. Classic Empire and Mc Craken look good. Irish War Cry got the 0fer spot but is outside where probably really wanted to be.

Rudeboyelvis 05-03-2017 10:33 AM

The draw soundly eliminated 7 horses for me. CE drawing 14 may need to be reconsidered as much as I loathe his chances. If any horse is going to win from 17 Irish War Cry one that can certainly accomplish it.

knickslions2 05-03-2017 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1090246)
The draw soundly eliminated 7 horses for me. CE drawing 14 may need to be reconsidered as much as I loathe his chances. If any horse is going to win from 17 Irish War Cry one that can certainly accomplish it.

Its there for the taking for irish war cry and 6-1 would be nice. I think winner is from posts 14 through 17.

Kitan 05-03-2017 11:53 AM

DRF entries has an interesting lineup for the race...


Rudeboyelvis 05-03-2017 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1090251)
Its there for the taking for irish war cry and 6-1 would be nice. I think winner is from posts 14 through 17.

I think so too, Tom. Though I am not dismissing Hence/Irap yet. Absolutely love where McCracken and Tapwrit drew.

Rudeboyelvis 05-03-2017 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli (Post 1090248)
What 7 are u thinking. 4 inside, 3 outside?

;)

bare it all 05-03-2017 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1090253)
DRF entries has an interesting lineup for the race...


Oh I think I'd take 3yo Giants Causeway there.

Secretriat34 05-03-2017 12:17 PM

Irish War Cry draws post 17

NO COLT has ever won the KD in 142 years starting from post 17

hondo 05-03-2017 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Secretriat34 (Post 1090257)
Irish War Cry draws post 17

NO COLT has ever won the KD in 142 years starting from post 17

But he is a Jersey Bred, he does not know better...I think the preferred him on the outside.

knickslions2 05-03-2017 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1090254)
I think so too, Tom. Though I am not dismissing Hence/Irap yet. Absolutely love where McCracken and Tapwrit drew.

Agree they got perfect spots for both of them and expect them to be much better than that last race.

tywizard 05-03-2017 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Secretriat34 (Post 1090257)
Irish War Cry draws post 17

NO COLT has ever won the KD in 142 years starting from post 17

It wasn't attempted in 104 of the 142 derbies.

cakes44 05-03-2017 01:19 PM

Any free PPs with post positions included out there? I have to throw someting together quick for an office pool. Thanks in advance.

Holybull1 05-03-2017 01:25 PM

Twinspires/Brisnet has one. I tried attaching it but the file is too large.

Kasept 05-03-2017 03:10 PM

SATURDAY OVERNIGHT: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...C-CD-20170506D

richard burch 05-03-2017 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Secretriat34 (Post 1090257)
Irish War Cry draws post 17

NO COLT has ever won the KD in 142 years starting from post 17

BUT 17 is better than the 1 post.

richard burch 05-03-2017 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1090229)
You do realize that with twenty entries almost every year the one post should have one or two wins in thirty one years?

I do realize that!. So go ahead and bet / lose your money on those horses. I will look elsewhere.

Looking at these horses, when the favorite is listed at 4-1 there really is no fav in this race. Really wide open and should pay well in exotics. I'm thinking of just boxing some low cost supers and see what happens and just enjoy the race.

I am fortunate enough to have at least one more Derby to watch with my parents who are still married and both 91 years old...and it's Moms birthday too and she always says how beautiful they are in the post parade.

Hoblin 05-03-2017 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1090253)
DRF entries has an interesting lineup for the race...


That's the morning line for the Derby Sire future wager offered Thanksgiving weekend. The best values there are #2 Bodemeister, which will pay $63.60 on Always Dreaming, #4 Curlin ($31.20 on Irish War Cry), and #24 All Others ($9.80 on eleven horses in the field)

afraidofthedark 05-03-2017 07:11 PM

Not one syllable about one I love at a juicy price...Practical Joke. 3rd off layoff all solid races. Hate he didn't pass Irap but that's my main blemish. He drew 19 which lets me red board I'll Have Another. Had several on him. Best of luck to all! Steve Byk, you are the best. LOVE this site.

Hoblin 05-03-2017 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by afraidofthedark (Post 1090280)
Not one syllable about one I love at a juicy price...Practical Joke. 3rd off layoff all solid races. Hate he didn't pass Irap but that's my main blemish. He drew 19 which lets me red board I'll Have Another. Had several on him. Best of luck to all! Steve Byk, you are the best. LOVE this site.

Nice! Loving a horse that the betting public ignores is the best. Good luck! I showed the entry list to three friends who know nothing about racing, and they picked Thunder Snow, Practical Joke, and Fast And Accurate based upon name alone. So there is a chance that PJ will take some action from the $2 infield bettors, but I'm pretty sure you'll still get more than 20-1.

tanner12oz 05-03-2017 09:58 PM

I'm throwing a couple clams on practical joke..seems like could be a bit wise guy

Kasept 05-07-2017 11:03 AM

5/20: Preakness Possibles/Probables

Always Dreaming (Pletcher)
Classic Empire (Casse)*
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)*
Gunnevara (Sano)*
Royal Mo (Shirreffs)
Three Rules (Pinchin)
Senior Investment (McPeek)
Cloud Computing (Brown)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez)
Malagacy (Pletcher)

RHT2004 05-07-2017 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1090720)
5/20: Preakness Possibles/Probables

Always Dreaming (Pletcher)
Classic Empire (Casse)*
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)*
Gunnevara (Sano)*
Royal Mo (Shirreffs)
Three Rules (Pinchin)
Senior Investment (McPeek)
Cloud Computing (Brown)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez)
Malagacy (Pletcher)


Strong pace

10 pnt move up 05-07-2017 06:16 PM

Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

richard burch 05-07-2017 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1090720)
5/20: Preakness Possibles/Probables

Always Dreaming (Pletcher)
Classic Empire (Casse)*
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)*
Gunnevara (Sano)*
Royal Mo (Shirreffs)
Three Rules (Pinchin)
Senior Investment (McPeek)
Cloud Computing (Brown)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez)
Malagacy (Pletcher)

Pletcher running Malagacy against the derby winner is dangerous. Todd has a big pair of...

richard burch 05-07-2017 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1090759)
Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

Already we are dismissing the horses? I think these are better than what AP faced.

Malagacy?Gunnevara? Classic Empire? Are those are weak horses? No way.

10 pnt move up 05-07-2017 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1090779)
Already we are dismissing the horses? I think these are better than what AP faced.

Malagacy?Gunnevara? Classic Empire? Are those are weak horses? No way.

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

Dunbar 05-08-2017 06:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1090785)
I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

pweizer 05-08-2017 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1090789)
I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

Kasept 05-08-2017 09:58 AM

@Steve_Byk No @PreaknessStakes for Malagacy per Todd Pletcher; Master Plan returns to Belmont this morning for Peter Pan/@BelmontStakes @TheNYRA..

Kasept 05-08-2017 11:48 AM

5/20/17 - Preakness Stakes

Always Dreaming (Pletcher/Velazquez)
Classic Empire (Casse/Leparoux)*
Hence (Asmussen/Geroux)
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen/Lanerie)
Gunnevara (Sano/M. Smith)
Royal Mo (Shirreffs/Stevens)
Senior Investment (McPeek/Hill)
Cloud Computing (Brown/Castellano)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez/Carreno)
Multiplier (Walsh/Graham)

pmayjr 05-08-2017 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1090759)
Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

I think it's too early to tell for 1 reason- the mud.

Probably 3/4 of the trainers will say "my horse hated the mud" and will try again in the Belmont. I think a lot legitimately believe that.

If/when Always Dreaming smokes them on a dry track, then I'll agree

RHT2004 05-08-2017 06:36 PM

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

knickslions2 05-08-2017 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1090814)
Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

RHT2004 05-08-2017 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1090815)
Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

He's been high on the horse, but who knows who he likes in this race. Why does it matter?
I want a new face, who else is there unless you want to take 4-5 on the Derby winner? I dont and I've never been a Classic Empire fan and he's obviously not a new shooter.
Who are the others that look better? I see no one. Its Always Dreaming or Cloud Computing. No one else wins this race

knickslions2 05-08-2017 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1090816)
He's been high on the horse, but who knows who he likes in this race. Why does it matter?
I want a new face, who else is there unless you want to take 4-5 on the Derby winner? I dont and I've never been a Classic Empire fan and he's obviously not a new shooter.
Who are the others that look better? I see no one. Its Always Dreaming or Cloud Computing. No one else wins this rsce.

There's quite a few that can win this is always dreaming isn't ready including empire. This group doesn't have much separation my friend


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