I agree 100% that Rail Trip is mediocre. That's why Zenyatta's connections running scared sh!tless from the horse is so mind-numbing.

on dirt you can be rest assured he would have been worried about winning colors. especially on a wet track.

im not taking away anything from zenyatta. but to dismiss winning colors for only winning the derby shows a total lack of objectivity. she matured earlier than zenyatta did. zenyatta hadn't even started her career by the time winning colors had beaten grade 1 males twice.

Sure, send me a PM. We'll figure out the details. I'm confident she won't be running on dirt at all this season.

That last race was hardly the only good race he's ever run. Did you see his performance in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year? He blew them away. I think even the speed-figure guys were impressed with that one. I think he ran a huge number. Didn't he get a 112 Beyer or something like that?

I think he's good not mediocre, however let's examine how distorted this has really become. Since everyone is so hung up on the beyers of the 2 races...108 and 103.

What if the weights were reversed... Rail Trip carried 129 and Zenyatta carried 118 in their respective races, what would their beyers be then? They wouldn't be on the same page.

I know it's in vogue to say weight is overrated, but weight is overrated.

I'm sure if you were betting, it wouldn't. If you like Rail Trip at 129 and you think he could run as well as when he carried 118, well goodluck to you.

Against the field he faced the other day? I have two fists, the contents of which would be emptied on Rail Trip.

I'm not a big numbers guy and I don't have much confidence in the numbers. I trust my eye more than I trust the numbers. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the numbers are correct and the 108 and 103 numbers were correct. How many lengths would 11 pounds cost a horse? I would guess about 1 1/2 lengths. So at equal weights, Rail Trip would have still run faster. If they both caryy 118 pounds, Zenyatta's number moves up 3 points to 106. So Rail Trip still ran faster. Not only that, he was geared down. He could have easily won by another length or two. That would move his number up by an additional 2-4 points.

Off topic, but I had a discussion with a Euro the other day on Goldikova beating Paco Boy. They basically gave her no credit and said she only won because she was getting three pounds. He then went on to tell me that a pound is equal to a length in their universe. Pure poppycock.

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

How much more impressive could he have been in his last few races at Hollywood? I don't know what races you were watching.

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?

Did you even read my prior post where I said her not challenging him is ridiculous?

Seriously, if you are a Zenyatta fan right now and you think that facing females in CA is a serious challenge then how is it even possible she could win the Classic? And that's the race they're shooting for!

NT

If he were to run the race he did in last year's Hol Gold Cup I'm quite confident he'd beat her.

NT

I think the only chance of Rail Trip and Zenyatta facing each other this year will be in the BC Classic, if they both make it there in one piece.

Certain horses hit a threashold with weight, for instance for Zenyatta we know she can run well up to 129, for Rail Trip 129 is a question mark, one that hasn't been answered yet. Until they do it no one can be certain how they will handle it. Regardless some say for every length = 1 lbs, this isn't a concise science, there are some Trainer's that look at weight religiously, as Bobby Frankel once did, we know if he didn't like the weight assignments for a race he would have no qualms scratching a horse. I don't think it's an inconsequencial factor that should just be dismissed nor do I think it's an all determining factor. Every situation is unique, I do believe letting Rail Trip carry 118 in a grade 2 was like handing candy to a child, it couldn't have been any sweeter to Ellis I surmise.

You've got mail.


--Dunbar

Yes, I read your post. As I said before, I totally disagree with you. If I owned Zenyatta, I would not be wanting to face Rail Trip at Hollywood in a 4 horse field with no pace.

With regard to your other comment, facing females in California is usually not a serious challenge for her although it has been a couple of times.

She won the Classic last year. She appears to be just as good on the dirt as on synthetic. She looks to be as good this year as last year. Why wouldn't she be one of the horses to beat in the Classic again this year?

I don't know a single person in the business that thinks one length= 1 pound. That is preposterous. It is possible that 5 pounds= 1 length. If 1 length equaled 1 pound, you could put one of those 7 pound apprentices on your horse and expect the horse to move up 7 lengths. That is rediculous.

I do agree with you that it's not an exact science and there are probably some horses that would have a tougher time carrying 129 pounds than other horses. In general, a bigger, stronger horse will be able to carry more weight than a smaller horse.

Because she will be facing better quality dirt horses on dirt, instead of pretty poor quality turf and dirt horses on synthetic.

And don't say anything dumb like Gio Ponti is a great horse.

I agree with you. It appears that the race will be mouch tougher this year.

I don't think Zenyatta will have a problem with dirt. I think she's just as good on the dirt. I don't think the dirt will be the issue. The tougher competition will be the issue.

That's only because her entire legacy is that stupid streak at this point. Just look at the first comment from the Paulick Report swamp things: "17-0. That's all that needs to be said." There's no legitimate argument anymore against testing her on the east coast and/or against boys, so her record is made to be her legacy.

Davidowitz claimed she's impervious to pace scenarios and runs just as well behind a slow pace as a fast one (for the record, I agree with him), so what difference should it make how many horses are in the Gold Cup (I guarantee it won't be four) and what the pace is like?

Look at the bolded parts. This is the problem. We're still guessing as to how good she is because they refuse to prove it. It's downright pathetic that we're begging her to face Rail Trip. If she were as great as they say she is, she'd be pointing for the Whitney. And I don't want to hear about all the preps she needs for the BCC. If she can't run against big horses the first Saturday in August, then do so again in November, she's not really a champion.

Supposing she beats all of dirt racing's best, Blame, Quality Road, Rachel A, and even some poly and turf horses in the BCC, what then? Does she have to go to Japan to prove she is the world's best horse? I'm just trying to wrap my head around it if it happens, how will this forum react.

Cue the Jeopardy music....

By a lot. . .

What I don't get about Davidowitz's position is how exactly he's evaluating Zenyatta as a "physical entity" or whatever he called her without some sort of perspective. Her figs are slow, her competition is weak and serves to downgrade her races, and she's running on a surface that rewards mediocrity and serves to shorten the gaps between runners. He's watching her in that context - not in a vacuum.

If she beats a quality dirt field in the Breeders' Cup (which she won't) then she will finally deserve all the accolades her camp has already bestowed on her.

I can't wait all night so let me help you, there will be alot of scratching of heads, perhaps some armpits, and definitely some ball scratching...

I think, honestly, you are mistaking disdain for the connections as disdain for the horse.

Okay Zenyatta fans....you win.

I have been trying my hardest to still like and cheer for this horse despite your insanity, but I give up. If I am honest with myself I have to admit that I hope the mare loses every race she runs in for the rest of her career just so you people will shut the hell up.

Thanks a lot for ruining a pretty cool horse for me.

She will get enormous credit, but there will still be some disappointment from me that they didn't test her more often. Once again, I want to see Zenyatta against the top competition because I think she's awesome, and I'd like to see empirically just how awesome rather than deal in conjecture forever.

Obviously I admire Zenyatta and even I can't be certain she is a certainty to fare well in the BCC, to run 20 straight races and win them all for a deep closer is unheard of if she indeed gets to that point undefeated, but even with that knowledge I would never say she can't or won't do it. I have seen enough of her to know she can more than likely do it. If not she has certainly used up enough luck to last several lifetimes if one thinks she has been the luckiest, best placed horse the game has ever seen. That seems more proposterous to me than the former.

I feel like it's gotten to the point where people don't even know what they're arguing about anymore.

I said the other day Zenyatta was great... but as dumb as this sounds, there are different types of great. A great day is when you win a Trifecta for $1k while a great day is when you hit the lottery.

Right now, Zenyatta is great... it's cool winning 17 races in a row, plus the Classic, no matter what surface and despite the really good trip. Been there done that. Give me something new. I've seen Zenyatta win the Hirsch, the Vanity... let me see her win the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pacific Classic... heck, I'd settle for the Delaware Handicap or the Personal Ensign.

As for great, everyone wants to talk about Personal Ensign, which is fine. But let's be real... neither Personal Ensign nor Zenyatta could go head-to-head with Ruffian, who was every bit of great a horse could be.

I wasn't always an admirer of hers either, but I finally recognized her for the talent she is. There is hope, if I could be swayed then anyone can be. I think her legacy for the rest will perhaps unfairly come down to 2 or maybe 1 race, but that is the position the connections have chosen for her, for many it won't matter, even Secretariat lost to Onion, so who knows. I just hope whatever happens the true Zenyatta shows up at CD for those that want to define her on one race.

I don't think Davidowitz literally meant that Zenyatta is 100% impervious to pace. I think he meant that she can still win despite a slow pace. She doesn't neccessarily have to have a fast pace to win. She would rather have a fast pace but she doesn't neccessarily have to have one.

So now you're saying that even if she wins the BC Classic again this year that still won't be enough because she's probably not going to face the boys in August. This is getting ridiculous.

To say the streak is not a big deal is ridiculous. It's almost impossible to win 15 graded stakes races in a row, no matter how carefully you pick your spots. You can catch some easy graded stakes races occassionally but you can't do it consistently and that is why it's never been done.

If you could find a way to win 17 races in a row (including 15 graded stakes races in a row) with a horse that's not great, then you should become a racing manager. You would be the best racing manager in the country if you could map out a schedule where a horse that's not that great of a horse wins 15 graded stakes races in a row by picking easy spots. It would actually be easy to make money as an owner if an owner could just find easy graded stakes races and win 15 in a row.

I know, how ridiculous to want her to have more than two stiff tests in her legendary 20-race career. We should all be grateful that she's come back to win the same million races on the same surfaces over the same mediocre horses. The streak isn't a big deal because she's not facing top competition. She's facing a bunch of ordinary California mares over and over again. If she were running in true Grade I's against true quality horses, the streak would be amazing, but she's not.

Holy crap. I think the horse is great, but we're not being allowed to see how great. How many more times do I have to say it?

You know I understand this feeling, if Rachel had won her 3 races this year, I would probably feel the exact same way you feel right now. I can only imagine what her fans would be saying, and some writer perhaps Haskin would probably write best racemare of alltime. But if Rachel only ran in gr.2's for the rest of the year and won the BCC, I do believe I would have to finally give her, her props. Yes I may finally understand this nonsense.

I just wish I had the will power to stop clicking on the this thread:D

Alright. Fair enough. I see your point. I partially agree. I agree that we would have a better idea as to exactly how good she is if she shipped more. But that doesn't mean I would ship her more if she was my horse. It would depend how she handles shipping. They acted like the trip to Arkansas did in fact tire her out quite a bit. The commentators said she looked like she has lost a little weight. Assuming that is the case, I probably wouldn't ship her again before the BC.

I was a fan at one time myself :(