well then he is committed to losing the derby.

Big Malagacy fan? He committed to the best option available.

no, not that horse. true for the other one. if you get a mount in the derby you go.

Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.

but still hitting the board

Jon White Projected Kentucky Derby ML

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) 15-1
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 5-1**
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) 15-1
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) 20-1
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) 6-1
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) 20-1
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 6-1
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) 12-1
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) 15-1
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) 20-1
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/TBA) 30-1
12. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20-1
13. Malagacy (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
14. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Alfredo Juarez Jr.) 20-1
15. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Tyler Gafflione) 50-1
16. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 8-1
17. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Corey Nakatani) 30-1
18. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 30-1
19. Battalion Runner (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
XX. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr.-Manny Franco) 20-1 ~ Unlikely
20. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
22. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) 30-1
23. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) 30-1

Looks pretty spot-on.

132.5%

Some of these HAVE to be higher for the line to balance.

Moving IWC and Always Dreaming both to 8-1 makes it much more reasonable.

Here's my attempt:

Horse ML Odds
Girvin 12
Classic Empire 5
Gormley 20
Irap 20
Irish War Cry 6
Thunder Snow (IRE) 15
Always Dreaming 8
Gunnevera 15
Practical Joke 15
J Boys Echo 20
State of Honor 25
Conquest Mo Money 20
Tapwrit 25
Malagacy 40
Hence 20
Fast and Accurate 50
McCraken 8
Battle of Midway 25
Patch 30
Battalion Runner 25

Is Juarez for sure confirmed on Hence?

Geroux looks to be available and would fit him well.

Hopefully he won't make the same mistake he did with Normandy Invasion and make his move WAY too soon. This colt has a shot with the right set up and ride.

Am I the only one that thinks that Irap may be getting good right on cue, for connections that know how to do this, and will be able to make his own trip?

That, to me, is the one that if I don't play, and it pays $56, will be saying out loud that I should have had it.

Am I crazy?

Not at all...

"Going out on quite the limb" is my middle name!

Austin Going out on quite the limb Powers.

but really, I feel more confident in saying he will not win the derby than saying who the winner actually will be. Until the post draw the odds are slightly off now. You know who ever gets the 1,2 or 3 shoot is done.

Ferdinand was the last horse to win from the far inside post (in 1986), and you have to go back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978 to find a Derby winner that broke from gate No. 2.

- Overall, posts 1 through 4 have a 7.3 percent win rate but Super Saver (2010) is the only winner in the last 17 runnings.

The outside of the gate has had great success in recent years. The auxiliary gate (15-20) has had eight of the last 17 winners, including the aforementioned American Pharoah, I’ll Have Another (post 19, 2012), Animal Kingdom (post 16, 2011) and Big Brown (post 20, 2008).



https://www.americasbestracing.net/t...ns-the-numbers

but I have some thoughts on that.


and don't we get a Japan horse in the field every year?

Epicharis Earns Japan's Kentucky Derby Bid
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ucky-derby-bid

Conquest Mo Money will PASS on Derby.. Look at Preakness..

Jose Lezcano gets call on State of Honor..

Maann, this was the right horse for Paco Lopez

Does anyone know what way the connections are leaning with Malagacy and Untrapped? Am finding myself more and more intrigued with Sonnetteer as maybe a long shot bomber to hit the board. And who knows, with the way this years Derby prep season has gone it would seem fitting for a maiden to win.

Here are foaling dates for most of the runners in the field:

5/6/17 - Kentucky Derby

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) March 31
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) March 21
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) March 20
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) February 11
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) May 2
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) March 24
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) February 25
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) February 28
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) April 15
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) April 21
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) February 25
12. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) March 28
--. Malagacy (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 50 ~ Unlikely
13. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Alfredo Juarez Jr.) March 28
14. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Tyler Gafflione) ?
15. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) April 13
16. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Corey Nakatani) January 30
17. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA) March 18
18. Battalion Runner (Todd Pletcher/TBA) March 15
--. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown) 40 ~ Unlikely
19. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) ?
20. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) ?
------------------------------------------------------
21. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) March 1
22. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) February 14
23. Local Hero (Steve Asmussen) March 21
24. Master Plan (Todd Pletcher) ?
25. Blueridge Traveler (Ken McPeek) ?
26. Petrov (Ron Moquett) March 26
27. Lancaster Bomber (Aiden O'Brien) ?

Flavien Prat picks up Battle of Midway mount