Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41896)

Indian Charlie 04-18-2011 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mawhip (Post 770094)
Can we get back to the original topic that Drugs is a serial redboarder. This grammer stuff is so confusing.

It's grammar, not grammer.

This is kinda fun!!!

Indian Charlie 04-18-2011 10:54 PM

That's another thing.

The word 'tard' is so freaking overused.

Speaking of which, for some reason, I don't miss PG this time around.

Much sadness.

Mawhip 04-18-2011 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rare Bog (Post 770107)
You fell for that? Fish on.......

can you believe it??

Indian Charlie 04-18-2011 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rare Bog (Post 770107)
You fell for that? Fish on.......

Well, I thought it was about 50/50 that it was an honest mistake, but I went with it anyways, to be in the spirit of things.

Okay, maybe it was more like 70/30 in favor of it being a real mistake.

DaTruth 04-18-2011 11:36 PM

I hate to interrupt the grammar cotillion, but DrugS has requested placement on the 180 day disabled list. I hope all of you are happy. I was looking forward to his upcoming presentation on the effect that Reconstruction had on the Phoenix Handicap.

Mawhip 04-19-2011 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth (Post 770112)
I hate to interrupt the grammar cotillion, but DrugS has requested placement on the 180 day disabled list. I hope all of you are happy. I was looking forward to his upcoming presentation on the effect that Reconstruction had on the Phoenix Handicap.

Don't you mean affect that Reconstruction had.

GenuineRisk 04-19-2011 12:47 PM

For the alot haters:

http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.co...verything.html

johnny pinwheel 04-20-2011 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 769627)
A repeat of his race in November - over the CD tracks - will easily win the KY Derby - and his two performances this year are about as good as the last two performances of any horse in this crop pointing for the KY Derby.

you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

Indian Charlie 04-20-2011 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 770295)
you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. at least you finally gave up on to honor and serve...oh yeah, you didn't, he got hurt and spared the embarrassment. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

miraja2 04-20-2011 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 770298)
I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

Perhaps, but his writing style is so aesthetically pleasing!

paulo537 04-20-2011 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 770298)
I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

What does the fact that you and others basically call Uncle Mo the horse to beat solely off his 2 yo form make you?

Hopefully, nothing more serious than just being a Mo-tard.

miraja2 04-20-2011 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulo537 (Post 770306)
What does the fact that you and others basically call Uncle Mo the horse to beat solely off his 2 yo form make you?

Hopefully, nothing more serious than just being a Mo-tard.

Are people really saying that?
I guess everybody has their own definition of what "horse to beat" means but I don't see anybody in this thread saying he's the "horse to beat." You might think DrugS gave him too high of a chance to win on his list, and you might be right, but based on his percentages he is still saying he thinks there's over an 80% chance that Uncle Mo will NOT win the Derby. To me, that isn't exactly a huge endorsement of Mo or constitute "basically" calling him the horse to beat.

Sightseek 04-20-2011 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 770303)
Perhaps, but his writing style is so aesthetically pleasing!

:D

paulo537 04-20-2011 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 770308)
Are people really saying that?
I guess everybody has their own definition of what "horse to beat" means but I don't see anybody in this thread saying he's the "horse to beat." You might think DrugS gave him too high of a chance to win on his list, and you might be right, but based on his percentages he is still saying he thinks there's over an 80% chance that Uncle Mo will NOT win the Derby. To me, that isn't exactly a huge endorsement of Mo or constitute "basically" calling him the horse to beat.

"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

And really, it's nothing other than internet talk about one race. Not incredibly important but when you still think U Mo is the likeliest winner 3 weeks out with what is known AND when you categorize people who disagree with you with various cognomens, you can't be totally shocked when you are offered a small taste of what your own cooking.

miraja2 04-20-2011 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulo537 (Post 770326)
"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

Again, as I've already stated, I guess everybody has their own opinion of what an expression like that means. To me, "horse to beat" means a horse that is likely to win the race. Saying that you think there's an 80+% chance that the horse won't win strikes me as something quite different.
Personally I don't know what to think of Mo's chances in the race. I doubt if I bet him, but I can't really blame people who do because at least he's actually run a fast route race before in his life.....something which the overwhelming majority of this field has NEVER done.

estreetposse 04-20-2011 12:44 PM

I'm confused...is Mawhip a he or a she?

Dahoss 04-20-2011 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 770295)
you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

What does pretty much make my living doing this mean? The few opinions you have given before races have been dreadful. I think if you actually took a few seconds and tried to understand what DrugS is saying, it might make more sense. Or maybe someone could read it to you and explain it. He's not saying he is betting Uncle Mo, or would want to right now. He's just talking about odds.

Also, does ignoring all questions or responses that make you look foolish mean they don't exist? You're not the only one that does this, but you're one of the best.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:49 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.