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-   -   Derby Grid/Graded Earnings (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21594)

Kasept 04-20-2008 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan
that's why I'm confused.
He'll run if among the top 20 earners come the draw.

hi_im_god 04-20-2008 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
He'll run if among the top 20 earners come the draw.
i'm not sure i understand. can you clarify this?

Kasept 04-20-2008 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god
i'm not sure i understand. can you clarify this?


northeastbound123 04-20-2008 11:45 AM
LMAO

ninetoone 04-20-2008 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept

Well played, sir.

geeker2 04-20-2008 01:00 PM
now that was funny!:)

hi_im_god 04-20-2008 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept

i wish you'd stop with all the technical jargon and just say what you mean.

Buffymommy 04-20-2008 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I think the last race showed he isnt just a sprinter. And switching to dirt imo would be more beneficial to his running style. He is a better horse when he makes the lead, not when he sits just right off it. I'd like to see this horse get sent to the lead in the Derby. At 15/1 or higher, there are definetely worst stabs in this race, especially now that his chief rival War Pass is out. I also like the fact Solis was so eager to committ to this horse 3 weeks prior to the Derby, instead of playing the waiting game and shopping around, if you will. Lots to like.

Oh God, Gander saying my pick MAY have a shot? Honestly, after his last race I told my husband "I believe that is my Derby horse." It was the first thing that came to my mind. He ran WIDE into the final turn and was still game at the end of the race. I really like this horse. :D

Rileyoriley 04-20-2008 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept


So if I understand you correctly, IF the horse runs, he'll be wearing Reeboks. Is this an accepted shoe? If the track is muddy, can he wear Reeboks with mud caulks?

geeker2 04-20-2008 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileyoriley
So if I understand you correctly, IF the horse runs, he'll be wearing Reeboks. Is this an accepted shoe? If the track is muddy, can he wear Reeboks with mud caulks?

Shouldn't the horse also have a water bottle?

SniperSB23 04-21-2008 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
AW..

Not coming according to Haskin from Zayat's stable manager guy. (Zabu or whatever they call him). Derby Trial and Woody Stephens intended. That's as of yesterday... (And seems especially probable given that Halo could very likely get in with an injury/defection or two..)
Uh oh, that is bad news. If Massive Drama were to win the Derby Trial and it were Denis of Cork he'd be bumping rather than Halo Najib can you really imagine Zayat not pushing to run him in the Derby?

slotdirt 04-21-2008 09:22 AM
Didn't the Derby Trial lose its graded status?

SniperSB23 04-21-2008 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
Didn't the Derby Trial lose its graded status?
Yeah but doesn't make any difference with a horse that already has the earnings.

philcski 04-21-2008 02:12 PM
My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

philcski 04-21-2008 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardus
How did you arrive at these numbers?
I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

Scav 04-21-2008 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51
Like what you are doing here, but it seems weighted towards the 20-30 range, where they are probably 3-4 horses that will be in the 50 to 80/1 range

Gander 04-21-2008 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.
They look pretty spot on to me. Thanks for posting those.

I do think Visionaire and Court Vision will be considerably lower than the ones you predict at maybe 25/1 and 18/1 respectively.

hockey2315 04-21-2008 03:21 PM
16-1 on Cool Coal Man looks low. . . At least it'll mean that my future bet on him at 20-1 actually offered value. . .


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