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-   -   4/12 (KEE): Blue Grass (Gr. I) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21458)

Danzig 04-12-2008 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP
You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.

ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.

nfliehman 04-12-2008 01:22 PM

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

SniperSB23 04-12-2008 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfliehman
I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

Everyone but Stone Bird stands a shot to hit the board here.

Cajungator26 04-12-2008 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Everyone but Stone Bird stands a shot to hit the board here.

Stone Bird = Belmont winner. :D

All kidding aside, probably not ... but it would be ironic.

pgardn 04-12-2008 01:34 PM

Because its on the rubber,
I think Sniper is right.

But I think people might be wishing a bit
too much also. Bettors and Owners.
The main reason we got 13 horses going
against Pyro is the rubber (and that there
is a possible intention to use this as a training
session before the real event). If this were a dirt
event and Pyro needed the money to get in,
the field would be much shorter of course.
A few would be thrown in because its the last
chance for some of these to get enough earnings.

There would be no other horses I like enough
to go against the best horse in this race. I wish I
had strong feelings about one other as a winner but
I personally do not. Its neat to read the views of others.

JJP 04-12-2008 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.

THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.

JJP 04-12-2008 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfliehman
I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

On that track, wide seems to be the place to be. I thought Gomez made a big mistake in the 3rd trying to dive down toward the inside.

pgardn 04-12-2008 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfliehman
With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

If you check out some other sites you
will see others do like this horse. I suspect
he will be the 3rd choice by the public and would
probably be the 2nd choice with a diff. post. It
may be advantageous is some ways, but I would prefer
a little closer in.

SniperSB23 04-12-2008 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP
THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.

Didn't an AP Indy just win the Ashland?

miraja2 04-12-2008 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfliehman
I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

We don't understand two-thirds of it ourselves so you are ahead of the game.
As for Visionaire, he doesn't seem like a great play to me. He is a decent horse, and the race is wide open, but I think he'll be slightly overbet and might be the type of runner that gets caught wide all the way around in this race.
I'm proabably out of my mind, but I kind of like Monba and Miner's Claim to be factors here, and am using them on a variety of tickets with Cool Coal Man and Big Truck. I'm banking on the fact that Pyro's slow works over this course means he doesn't like the surface and I am leaving him off entirely.

letswastemoney 04-12-2008 04:23 PM

wow pyro sux on polytrack

ateamstupid 04-12-2008 04:24 PM

Gotta love the tires!

Mike 04-12-2008 04:24 PM

Great news for Pyro fans, an off the board finish

Mike 04-12-2008 04:25 PM

I boxed Monba and Pyro;kicking myself now

I bet Union Ave. in the finale

SniperSB23 04-12-2008 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.

I'm a FU<KING MORON. I played those four with Big Fu<king Truck instead of Kentucky Bear.

Coach Pants 04-12-2008 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Yes.

I like Monba too.

Saved my bad wager on Big Truck. Whew.

Danzig 04-12-2008 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP
THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.

no, ap indys top synthetic horse is adriano--one who's probably heading to ky based on his form on anything BUT dirt.
bertrando is one showing good poly #'s, for anyone who is interested.

miraja2 04-12-2008 06:07 PM

I have no idea why people bet Pyro so heavily. As I said before the race (and as anybody with a functioning set of eyes could see) his works there were horrible, and there was really no reason to think he would like this surface.
Sometimes it shocks me how many people still think form from one surface has any significance whatsoever on the other.

Cajungator26 04-12-2008 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
I have no idea why people bet Pyro so heavily. As I said before the race (and as anybody with even a functioning set of eyes could see) his works there were horrible, and there was really no reason to think he would like this surface.
Sometimes it shocks me how many people still think form from one surface has any significance whatsoever on the other.

I still would have liked to have seen SOMETHING from him today.

miraja2 04-12-2008 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike
Great news for Pyro fans, an off the board finish

I guess if you mean just people who plan to bet on the horse in his next start when he returns to dirt, then yeah....it is good news.
If you really meant people that are actually fans of the horse however, I hardly see how watching your horse demonstrate that he sucks on polytrack could be a good thing.
I mean....they do still run races after the Kentucky Derby right?


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