speaking of andy, wonder where he is...

i wonder tho, what would it mean if denis should happen to crush the field in the wood? Carroll is running him in only one prep, as he says that denis of corks races are showing he will peak in two starts.
i don't know yet who my favorite is for the derby, it's too soon-and some good horses falling by the wayside every day. but i think it's too soon to draw a line thru some of these. doesn't it mean something that the two he beat in arkansas came back to win a stakes next out?

We are talking about a horse who I am consistantly seeing in the top 3 spots in these "top 10" lists - and we are talking about his chances of winning the Derby. Am I right?

If so,

He's run three times as you say. A pair of wins in his first two starts with Beyers of 83 and 82 ... yeah, the first one was his debut at 7f, and yeah he was really up against the race shape in his 2nd one - so I will give you that he was clearly a better horse than his mediocre figures. Thus, not a bad horse to really get behind because his form was tremendously likely to improve.

The Southwest Stakes is what stamped him as a VERY overrated Derby prospect right now.

Let's compare 2nd place finisher Sierra Sunset's trip with Dennis Of Cork.

* Sierra Sunset: Showed the ability to rate and relax when he let run-off speed Sacred Journey set a tremendously fast pace. But, he never really had a chance to relax and finish because he was virtually head-and-head with Lukas sprinter Silver Edition for the first six furlongs of the race! That is a very unlucky trip for a horse of SS's style!

* Dennis Of Cork: Was positioned well in mid-pack - 18 lengths of the insanely fast early pace after a half mile. A Very ideal setup to both run a winning race and run a ceiling type figure.

The horse who clearly ran the better race in the Rebel was Sierra Sunset.

Now, does that mean Sierra Sunset is who you want of the two at 10 furlongs? No!

Does it mean that Sierra Sunset couldn't lose the Rebel? No! Why? Becuase Sacred Journey was back in the race - and He's Eze was adding blinkers and a candidate to take Silver Edition's harrassing role. It had the look of deja vu.

Think like a hardened gambler and not someone who is a fan of a nice young horse - catching the wedding was getting Dennis Of Cork at 9/2 odds in the Southwest Stakes (the absurd Turf War and Riley Tucker were shorter prices!) - catching the funeral might be expecting Dennis Of Cork to make any significant improvement in a race against better horses where he doesn't get a great setup.

It basically seems like you think I'm being too much of a contrarian - but look at the 2007 Southwest Stakes.

I remember you having Hard Spun as your strong "#1" ranked Derby prospect and all - and after he was 4th in the Southwest Stakes, you basically let him sink to the bottom of your top 10.

The problem was, analytically speaking, Hard Spun ran an outstanding and extremely buried race in the Southwest. You basically downgraded him on the basis of his result and not his performance. I think you are making a similar (and very commonly made) mistake if you once again put too much emphasis on result and not enough on performance.

inventing new betting phrases that I can plagiarize from him?

First off, I refuse to get into this much further until you spell the horse's name correctly.. And no, I'm not necessarily focused on Derby prospects in this exchange.

It's remarkable how trip cappers conveniently downgrade performances on the basis of 'set up'.. And conversely, any loss is explained away easily as 'up against race flow'. Think like a hardened gambler? You mean the approach in one's own mind justifying any opinion as having been correct no matter what the outcome of the race...? The approach that has you saying Sierra Sunset "ran the better race"? Here's a tidbit... He didn't. He lost. The horse that won ran the "better" race. When does a horse just get credit for adjusting to situations and winning under the circumstances as laid out? The Southwest scenario is laughable. What 'other' way was Denis of Cork SUPPOSED TO WIN THE SOUTHWEST? That was the way the race laid out. He gets points against him because Albarado DIDN'T move too early? Ridiculous. It set up for him positively, yes, but that hardly says that had the pace been slower he couldn't have adjusted and won as he did in the FG race...

(And by the way, you know that I loved what had been happening with Sierra Sunset and am very unhappy that he won't get a chance to compete this spring...)

Denis of Cork ran faster around 2 turns than most of the crop has, in his third career start, and has shown a professionalism that few of his potential rivals have shown. He has developmental upside; is bred to continue to improve with added ground; and is in the hands of a hands-on horseman that is familiar with a classic-intended runner.

This horse is destined for failure. He comes from a trainer who makes excuses before the race for EVERY race the horse has been in.

In regard to tackling War Pass in the Wood, Carroll said, “War Pass is the champion, but we’re hoping there’s a chink in his armor. He’s an exciting horse to watch run. He runs them off their feet and dares them to go with him, so it’s damned if you do damned if you don’t. Our best chance of beating him would be at a mile and a quarter. He’d have an advantage in the Wood, but it’s the one after that we’re interested in. This next one is more for conditioning. We don’t have to win.”

That's just the horse I want to back in the derby.

Here's the Derby excuse that he can use...

"Oh he only has four races. After looking at the sheets I think it's best that we don't fully crank him as I had previously planned. I talked to Jerry Brown over the phone while I was eating me Lucky Charms this morning and he said it might be best if we point towards the Belmont 'cause my horse is going to be a top and not a bottom on that day. And as ye know, it's a pain in the arse to be a bottom on the big day."

Spelling smack. How fresh!

Did you pull that one out from deep in the back pages of your posting playbook?


Pidgenhole me as a trip handicapper all you want. It's not like a race can even be watched correctly unless the person watching it has a strong understanding of all other factors in the handicapping process.

This is a very weak angle you are rolling with.


Ok, you either think you are talking to King Glorious - or perhaps ARL Jim stole your login...he loves sparring with me on this sort of thing.


Either you are making a statement and not supporting it with any real evidence other than the result - or you are saying that the horse that won always runs the better race.

If it's the former, mix in some evidence to make your case - if it's the latter, you should probably just quit while you are behind.

As for your first question, DoC has getting A TON of credit for doing that. You think Turf War or Riley Tucker will be favored over him anytime soon? He won't be paying $11.60 against the likes of them anytime soon.

My opinion is that he's being given too much credit - and his performance wasn't much better than his prior two slow figure efforts.

I think you are failing to realize how often horses with his style run their ceiling figure - or 'best possible figure they can run' when they get great paces to close into like he did.

I know you did.

But if you are fishing for me to regale the board with my pre-race opinion of the Rebel again - I'd love to....much as it may cause a certain lurker to overreact for a 3rd time, and much as it may make me look like a diva who acts like he's never found the endzone before.


I pretty much agree.

But that doesn't make me wrong for saying he's run no race remotely good enough to put him in the Derby winner circle.

The whole "what more could he do?" arguement is a weak one. As I said, the same arguement applies to Big Brown - and atleast Big Brown has a big race.

Uggh.. I am Jack's overwhelmed combatant. I simply can't go into bullet point by bullet point countermanding. Have other obligations right now. As per J.J. Hunsicker, "Let's call this game on account of darkness.."

I will offer this sage pearl of wisdom... "The race isn't always to the swift.. but that's the way to bet."

As of yet, I have not settled on who I'm betting in the Derby...as Sniper said, they all seem to have some pretty big questions to answer between now and the First Saturday in May....There has been a lot of discussion involving the comparison of this crop of 3YO's (or a horse from this crop) to previous year's crops....More appropriately there has also been a lot of discussion involving the merits of the individuals colts within this years crop...As handicappers/horseplayers we will all be trying to form an opinion as to who will have the best chances of winning on Derby Day...

Out of curiousity,,, Steve,Drugs,Hossy,Coach,Hooves,Scavs,Andy,Dannie, et al, who are the ones that you see as having the least/lesser questions to answer at this time??

By the way, this is obviously not the same as asking who are you are betting in the Derby...

If you think I know what countermanding means - or who J.J. Hunsicker is... than how exactly would I have never heard that Daymon Runyon quote before?

As for Denis Of Cork..it is not a question of talent, but one of maturity.

The fact that first Calvin jumped off to ride Turf War and now Robby has decided to ride the filly at Keeneland, instead of DOC in the Wood should be more than a bit disturbing to this ones backers. BBB

To answer your question, I think Pyro is obviously the one with the fewest question to address.

That is why I've been calling him "the most likely Derby winner" all year long. He's done nothing to enhance his reputation that much - but he still is the horse who deserves the most likely winner label.

I sorta disagree with this. This is the time of year when you want the midget to commit to one horse for the derby. Now any other race and your point is valid.

It's just another piece to the puzzle of Denis of Cork, albeit a small piece.

Would your opinion of Denis of Cork change if Stewart Elliott got the mount?

Elysium Fields has way more question marks than Denis. . .

Well really it's more of a question of why Alporodeo and his agent decided to stay at Keeneland and ride the filly instead of taking the mount on Denis in the Wood. Either they're both stupid or Denis isn't what the media and some fans are making him out to be.

It might be crazy reasoning on my part but I've been suspicious of this horse from the get-go.

I wouldn't say way more...

He's improved this winter and the FOY was a very impressive performance considering the post he had to overcome.

The big question mark with him is how will he perform away from GP.