here I agree with you. while no biz I feel is the better horse and stronger derby contender, tomorrow is not a make or break day. they'll be happy if he just keeps moving forward. can't go all in on him although there aren't many other alternatives beside SD.

I'm talking about trying to make money playing the horses, and there are times to take a stand and times not to, and if you play multi-race wagers you are foolish to stand alone. Maybe you want to go 60-40 ( though I will split it down the middle ) but you will not make money in this game singling when two gets it done. That I promise you.

oops, i said the same thing. i just took longer to say it. the one turn mile is one of the key elements in SD's favor. NoBiz gets stronger in my view when they get back to real two turn routes.

Scat Daddy has speed that can get the job done on a one turn mile.

The horse I caution people to be careful with is Cursora. Look who she has been facing, Take D' Tour, Ermine, Chic Dancer (was going to be 2nd favorite in the Bev D)

she has been training well and could surprise here

Guys what you think about Drums of Thunder tomm?? I think he will love a mile could give SCAT a run???

sorry i got sucked into the holy bull discussion.

were i playing with money tomorrow, i'd be playing the hell out of invasor and going deeper in the others -- i don't see either losing, but i'd bet my money on invasor and spread in the other legs. i'm not advocating singling twice in this ticket....

That is a tricky race as there is a chance Naissance Royale doesn't have that winner's determination but she is most likely the best horse, with a good post, coming off an impossible trip. I don't think it's even close who the second best horse in the race is, in fact it's more likely she's the best horse than the third best horse, and that's Nottawasaga. Her last was super impressive and I expect her to be a force in this division in 2007. I am a little concerned she won't run her best race second off a layoff but I believe she is clearly no worse than the second likeliest winner.

To me most of the others are similar, and too slow, and if I was going to toss in one outlyer it would be La Dolce Vita. You can have the rest ( though I was impressed with J'Ray rallying inside on the Calder turf last out, which is not easy, but she's just too slow ).

Yeah, her last figure was monsterous. I know you don't subscribe to the bounce theory but for me she is screaming BOUNCE, like I could hear her from the moon.......

There's also a Pick-4 on the last four races. Torini, who's in the 10th, may have a real future.

The 8/9/10 pick3 might yield value if you think Naissance is vulverable. The last race is a 3 year old non winner of 1 going a mile an eighth. There are a lot of unknowns in this race.

I think Naissance Royale looks like a strong single but the nature of grass racing allows for teh chance of an upset. The finale is much more projection since they are unproven against winners for the most part and the two turns since most are running it for the first time. The M/L favorite Rutledge Cat looks like a very vulnerable 5/2 favorite.

Roman's Run has 2x experience and has been training very well. High Act has shown speed in his first two and is bred to go long. Torini is an Oxley home bred has been working out at a 7-8 clip since December.

My biggest problem with the supposed BOUNCE theory is I think it is grossly overused and misappropriated as mostly it is a result of ideal conditions in one race and less than ideal ones in another. However, that being said, I do think second off a layoff, after a big return, is the race a horse is most likely to react. But, I also believe good horses don't react, and there is at least a chance Nottawasaga is a genuinely good horse.

You can't argue that if she runs back to last time she is far and away the biggest threat to the favorite. For that reason, if you are taking a shot with Strong Contender in the Pick-3, you should use her somewhere in your play. You will still get value.

What I don't like is that his routes seem to lack speed in the early stages of the race, then he closes strongly. That is not the profile I look for at the one turn mile at the Gulf. Better to have speed.

I hope this didn't get you all fired up this late.......

Not at all. I'm always fired up about the races. That's why I love it.

Naissance Royal and Nottawasaga are the two that i have marked as standouts from the rest of the field. After them I have about 4-5 in the same ballpark. I had planned to spread a lot in this raise but weighted fairly heavy to the two standouts.

You might be right 4...I didn't even look at that I might be playing the wrong sequence, instead of playing 2x4x1 15 times, I might play a 4x1x3 10 times and get paid better if I can beat Royale, and I can usually beat ANY HORSE, given optimal FOCUS

What's wrong with a shot with Magna Graduate in the Donn? He ran huge last time at Aqueduct didn't he after a terrible first out after his break...what a 110 Beyer or something?? Hasn't Gulfstream been favoring speed somewhat a bit recently?? It's hard for me to see INvasor as a lock here.

Bounce for me with Magna Graduate....

I agree.

Maybe I am just not seeing tomorrow's races clearly but I find them very formful looking and lacking in great opportunity.

It feels like a decent day to bet a few bucks in the Pick-6 and hope for the best.

Ya see, this is a perfect example, as he isn't going to bounce when he inevitably runs poorly. He won last time cruising on the lead, on the rail, on a super rail/speed biased racetrack. Even the second and third finishers rode the rail the whole way ( and we saw how well Papa Chullo ran last week ). His win was a phony bias aided effort and tomorrow he will have to run like a genuine racehorse.

He won't bounce....he will run to his actual ability.

I am speaking in terms of TG figs, meaning that I think he will digress significantly off his neg 4 last time. Brown does need to get a GOLDEN RAIL symbol......

Wasn't that over two months ago? How do you bounce with two months off? I don't know how good he'll be, just seems interesting to me here and on this track.

Yeah, same here. Not terribly excited about finding value in the big races. Will just watch and look for spots here or there.

You gave me an idea about the pick six. It might be worth a stab if its going to be a formful day.

What do you feel his actual ability really is??

BTW just cut his payout in half....LOL

You might be right about this, I didn't see that, I thought he was coming back off a shorter layoff....I still don't think he gets it done, unless Pletcher is smoking hot tomorrow, then he might be playable....stable runs in droves

Exactly, he cruised on the lead on the inner, in a six horse field at an unusual distance. I don't trust the figure at all and expect he'll run back like he usually does.

In the grand scheme of things he's obviously an extremely talented horse but against top competition I think he's severely lacking. He ran a few solid races right after Pletcher took over his training, hardly a surprise, but right now I think the best he could hope for would be dominating lessers as he did last time.

To me he has a very insignificant chance tomorrow and certainly less than his odds.

I also will be surprised if he runs more than three more races in his career.

Unusual disances are problematic in making numbers, and do result in questionable numbers more often than traditional distances, but his raw Beyer figure for his last was much higher. However, other figure makers I respect agree with Beyer's ultimate determination.

By the way, for the most part, the inner has been even since January 10th.

Coincidentally right after my last, and biggest, rant about it on ATRAB.

Frankly, I would like two weeks more of gold rails now, as I am running out of wide trip bet backs. Not totally however.

I'd put Invasor in somewhere as a saver. If anyone beats Invasor they have to run a career best and hope the HOY is not up to it.

Invasor has to be in my wagers. I don't want to go deep on the pick4 because it could be chalk across. Decisions, decisions, decisions. How does one wager the final four races wisely?

I am stubborn, I would rather toss him and hit large then use him, use up funds using him where I could be spreading, when I feel like I feel.

He could very well beat me tomorrow, and if this race were the BC Classic, Invasor would be my single, but I am thinking like an owner here, who ultimately calls the shots. Not saying he doesn't want to win, but I am sure KMc has been told MULTIPLE times how much the DWC means to him, and not to screw Invasor too tight for this race......I really think it is just to get his mind right and focused

Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field. I can't discount his Queens County figure as his last two races his 3 yr old year he ran 106s which makes the 110 for the qns cty seem very realistic to me, bias or not.

I believe he has way more downside than upside and I also don't believe the race sets up to his strengths. Chatain and Strong Contender are both improving horses and even Hesanoldsalt is improving. Magna Graduate is dressed up due to a ridiculous bias aided win and will be way overbet relative to his chances.

To me he is the horse that makes the race betable as the money on him eliminates the takeout.

I dont' see Strong Contender, but his pattern suggests he is due for a good one here and they have been targeting this one. I actually picked Chatain to win, just because Invasor is too easy here. He seems to stand head and shoulders above (Invasor), good horse.

If you haven't read Picking Winners and Beyer on Speed, you are doing your self a disservice. Both books are well written and they are entertaining. Beyer explains exactly how the figures are made. Once you understand the logic in how the figs are made, it's a lot easier to discard races which you disagree with. The numbers are only a measure of final race time and when sometimes projections involved in formulating the figs. That's why it is wise to save charts from the circuit you follow and keep tabs on how horses run going forward. Unstanding how the figs helped me a great deal in handicapping races.

I read those books many many moons ago. I agree that they are excellent books and I would recommend then to anyone getting into the sport. To be honest I think Picking Winners is what got me hooked on racing and handicapping. That and a horse called Affirmed

I am slightly puzzled as to why you are recommending them to me? What was it about my post that made you think that I hadn't yet read them?:)

He set an uncontested pace in the Queens County. :24 :48 1:12 1:37 through a mile. When a runner can set a pace that he or she is well within ability to handle, they will be able to finish in optimal time.

If you workout and either run outside or on a treadmill ,test yourself at different paces. Try fast early ,then next time go slow early. After running a 7 or 8 minute mile you might be puffing hard. I know I am. If I run a 9 or 10 minute mile I can easily sprint a half mile in 4 minutes. If I run an 8 minute mile, it's much more difficult to maintain that pace.

I think the same thing applys to horses. Easy maintainable rate of speed will result in maximum performance. Faster earlier rates will result in fatigue and deceleration of speed as distance increases.