I don't hold the Keeneland race too much against him because of the pace of that race, they were all up and on a strong pace and he may have moved too early. It was his first two turn race. Borel kept him back a bit more in the BC and it worked better for him. I think that is the style that he will continue to employ.

The Keeneland race was a pretty remarkable performance and surely showed that Street Sense can perform well under adverse circumstances. I really recommend watching that race again. He had the worst of trips and still almost won.

Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:

Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner

1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2



Everybody feeling better now?

Rail runner, my ass. He moved too soon and he was widest of all. What else did he need to do?

Now, THIS was a giant race.

His two strongest results also happen to be his last two outings. Couldn't just be that he's getting better could it? If you know a horse is fine going up through the inside, surely it could just be a combination of a good ride plus a horse with a good head on its shoulders. My point is sure you could think the horse likes being down there but it could also quite possibly be that it's a general professionalism rather than a preference by the horse. I don't think 2 races justifies a trend. I think the 'rail's the shortest distance' is completely viable here if it's obviously going to be a catfight to the end and you know the horse's gonna do it, like it or not. You save ground because every inch matters. I don't think he needed the rail in the Juvenile but hey if it's there, again, why not?

I just feel this idea that it's a misconception of race dynamics is only a viable way of thinking if either the rail's dead or the horse doesn't like being on the inside. If the rail's fine and the horse is talented and doesn't have a problem with it, why would any other course of action be as good? Or should I say good enough to opt out of it deliberately.

I know you're desperate for any argument you can find, and you have certainly shown on this board and PaceAdvantage a pathetic need to try and contradict me, but perhaps you should read all my posts in this thread before embarrassing yourself anymore. Not that I care....as the vast majority of your posts only expose your simplistic and childlike understanding of trips. That is, of course, when you aren't just trolling for a fight.

Here's my most recent post in this thread.....



One thing is for sure, it's a good thing you don't bet ( yes, sportsfans, the Fat Man brags about not betting on another board ).

You seem to be arguing a point with me that I didn't make. I never made a conclusive statement, and just offered a possibility, and never even remotely suggested what you said in the first paragraph was not the case.

I am open to as many possibilities as I can imagine. However, it never hurts to at least accept the possibility that something demonstrated MAY be true. That's all.

Everything is a personal attack to you. Can't handle the data?
Can it also possibly be the case that I have a different opinion than you do?
Exuse MOI, for voicing it.

You're wrong often enough. So am I.


We don't need theories at this point, we can just enjoy these horses.

I watch alot of races, so I like to have the facts represented as they are.

How are we doing on identifying lead changes: Picked that up yet?

"he found trouble on the rail"

Perhaps if you weren't agreeing with my most recent post your idiotic attack wouldn't have been quite as obvious.

attack on what? I merely posted data that casts doubt on your theory that the horse doesn't do its best running on the outside; didn't win the race but certainly ran the best race.

but you already had that information cause you bet the horse in the Juvenile, remember?

so what are you getting pissed about?

In the Thorograph ROTW, they actually predicted Curlin would bounce. First off, since he had one start, how the hell could they know how much potential this horse had?

Second, he had SIX WEEKS of rest. Exactly how long does a horse need to be off not to bounce? Three months? Six? A year? This crazy notion of "the bounce", which are nearly always just another convenient trainer excuse, are very bad for racing in general. It is a big part of why we have 5 horses stakes races all the time.

Hey fat man,
I think you need to read again the post again that got you all worked up. What exactly does blackthroatedwind say in this post? He says he is "concerned" and that he thinks the horse is "perhaps" a horse that does his best running inside. He isn't knocking the horse, but bringing up a legitimate question. If he had come on here and posted, "Street Sense is a fraud, he can ONLY win with a rail trip," that would have been a different story.
Your argument seems to be that it is not even worth considering that his last two big performances have come on the rail. That does not make sense to me. Almost everything that happens in a horse's race career is worth considering.....especially something like this.

On the other hand, the notion of "bounce" is a good thing for bettors savvy enough to recognize nonsense.

--Dunbar

Good point, I guess I love the bounce.

Trakus, the new technology, the new info, termed as cutting edge--with its bouncing balls of saddle cloth colors traveling the oval above each horse.

In regard to this boondoggle of stats, as vital as they may seem to you, keep 'em.

Equibase charts, I assure you, are not in danger of being replaced.

Bellamy Road was injured in that race I believe (made his next start in the travers and ran an excellent 2nd). He also finished 7th in the derby - which was very good considering he was injured and was pushing a fast pace, i believe closing argument was close to that pace also and was the only horse that outlasted bellamy road to the wire (from the pace).

I still think that Bellamy Road was one of the most (if not THE most) talented horses of that crop. It's a shame he couldn't stay sound.

March 17, 1973 - Secretariat makes his 3yo debut, winning the 7f Bay Shore S at Aqueduct over Champagne Charlie and Impecunious (who shipped out of town to win the Arkansas Derby next out). He went on to win the Gotham on April 7 (ETR) and lose the Wood Memorial on April 21. Turf writers wonder if he's finished, since he's by Bold Ruler (hasn't sired a Derby winner yet, despite siring gobs of top 2yos) and a half-brother to Sir Gaylord, who was an ante-post Derby favorite but got hurt before starting.

Not to say Street Sense is a Secretariat, but sweeping statements like this annoy me.

Pedigree Ann you're my hero.

Why does taking the best available route make the horse a possible rail runner (only)? Would you have preferred that he went around horses in Tampa? Would you have wanted a 3 or 4 wide trip in a 5 horse field (like Gomez in Cali)? Would that have allayed all concerns about this horses ability to run wide? Why is a good ride all of a sudden cause for concern?

I didn't misunderstand what he wrote. I just can see over analyzing.

You really need to stop sucking up. Must hurt being on your knees constantly when the subject is as short as the one in question.

Are we still pissed about getting SCHOOLED in the Deadly Dealer race?

I could respond by explaining, for about the fifth time, that I never made any conclusive observations, but merely offered a possibility, but since you have admitted that I am a " foil " of yours, and thus have admitted to trolling me, then there's really no reason to offer what you know to be the truth.

Awww... look at the cute little troll. :rolleyes:

Can you elaborate on this? I think I understand what you are saying in relation to SS, but not really sure how terrible this thinking is. I understand a lot of horses dont like to come inside but are there examples of horses that dont like to go outside? Not really sure if this is your pt. or not. so...

That movie scared the s.hit out of me...Plus Critters.

This is correct, but you can't really apply what Secretariat did in the 1970s to racing today. Training practices are very different and if you tried a training schedule like that nowadays, the horse would most likely never run again. I mean look at that...March 17 to April 7 to April 21 and then the first Saturday in May that year. Unbelievable. Plus, you are comparing Street Sense's campaign to an absolute freak of a horse's campaign. And who is to say that the reason that the connections of Secretariat waited so late in the year to start wasn't due to a little injury that was never released to the public. Secretariat never ran as a four year old right? Way too many unknown variables in there to compare Street Sense's late start in the year to Secretariat's....

Besides, the connections of Street Sense basically admitted that they were having issues with the horse...

I'm not sure I would use the word " terrible ", as I felt deceptive was more apt, and I will try to explain.

Let's assume for this argument that all tracks are " fair ", in other words there is no advantage or disadvantage to being in one path or another, and only ground loss is involved. Thus, clearly the more time spent on the inside, or closer to the inside, on the turns the better in terms of overall ground covered. Thus, obviously there is some very real incentive to staying inside. However, many horses are intimidated by running inside of horses, whether in the stretch or sometimes even on turns, so they will not exert themselves if forced into this position. This does not hold true for ALL horses, and I wouldn't ever suggest absolutes like that, but it is true for many. In general, many horses do their best running unencumbered on the outside of other horses. So, for this reason it is a mistake, IMO, to automatically assume that an inside trip is a good trip. It may be...but it is far from an absolute.

I am sure you have bet horses in your life that have had sweet looking trips inside and behind horses and somewhat surprisingly didn't run as well as you figured, and almost looked to be spinning their wheels so to speak, only to come back and run much better the next time with a more outside trip. This goes against the " saving ground is best " way of thinking, and may be due to the horse being uncomfortable inside or perhaps not liking dirt getting kicked in its face, but for whatever reason I think it shows at least the possibility that saving ground is not ALWAYS the best way to victory. The horse's comfort CAN far outweigh any ground loss.

See what threw me off in your original thought was that you mentioned "race dynamics" so I was unsure if you were referrring to the pace of the race, or perhaps, an inside outside bias or whatever.

That is why I was hesistant to bring up horse psychology as perhaps you were thinking along another line. Obviously a dead rail would not be good for running on the inside.

so you are speaking of horse psychology which I think mutes your pt. a little bit. If the horse has established that he can and will run inside of horses (like SS that we were speaking of) is there a reason for the punter to think that there maybe a problem if he doesnt get this trip?

I mean, I understand a horse who successful on the outside may have trouble running inside of horses but are there examples of the opposite: horses who could run inside of horses but did not like to run outside of them? I think that is where you are going with it, but I dont recall any offhand. See that is where I am a little bit wondering here, you seem to suggest that the opposite effect can happen.

Of course there are many example of horses that are hesistant while on the rail, I often bring up the example of Proud Accolade literally butt whipping another horse into submission on his inside, to take a race at AQU when he was a 2 yr. old. or Barbaro when he won that race in FL was really intimidating Like Now (?). Yeah that happens a lot. Was Any Sat. bumping a little with SS, yesterday?

Don't you mean the second coming of Mineshaft? :p

Easy Goer
 

I am in no way saying I think Street Sense has shown he NEEDS to be inside to run well. However, there are horses who are " rail runners " that won't run well unless they are inside, though they are often hard to uncover and are probably fairly rare. I just thought it was interesting to point out about Street Sense and it MIGHT be food for thought.

Frankly, considering all the discussion my comment generated, some good and some bad, I'm glad I brought it up.

This is a long thread, and this being the original thought/possibility I think it fair to show BTW's first comment once again, as it DOES deal with psychology first. In that vein, I don't believe it qualifies to mark the last post as moot.

I will pose another reason. It is harder to turn on the inside compared to the outside on turns. What you gain in ground, you quite possibly lose in energy. In order to hold a tight turn you actually have to use more force to stay in that turn.

F (centripetal)= mv^2/r ... its v squared thats the tough part. You have actually slow down to not lose as much energy to hold you in that turn. Any time anything turns it changes direction. Any time a body changes direction it accelerates (changes velocity). Any time a body accelerates a force is required.

And I thank you.

HAHA. :D :D

Oh I think it's a fun thread. C'mon do your ESPN commentators bring that up at all? Nope. You get this kind of discussion on Derby Trail. Good times.

The shortest point From A to B is a straight line if your horse can handle the turn allways take the inside saves in distance a hell of alot,Some horses dont like being closed in so the outdside is better but mind the jockey they dont like sitting outside as it makes them look bad on TV

Yeah, no, I mean it's good to bring up all kinds of pts. with regards to these horses. At least it gives you an excuse when they fail to perform as expected.

It's also possible that his, (SS) running style is a function of Borel, who I guess likes to ride that close to the rail. IF so this horse certainly is tailor made for his style. I thought he was blocked along the rail today as they entered the turn and didnt realize he had actually got through until I heard the announcer near the final strides. Faulty camera work, I guess.

THe horse I was trying to think of was Sharp Humour who went down to the wire w/ Barbaro in whatever race it was. He wasnt intimidated but Barb. tried to hip check him through the stretch. Did anyone see ANy Given Sat. doing that to SS? Or was it just a brush?