I think a strong case can be made for Battalion Runner.

1. He's obviously fast based on all speed figures.

2. He's finished strong in his 2 races prior to the Wood.

3. Was given 9 weeks off after his N1X win, which would explain him being
a little short in the stretch of the Wood. He was still well clear of Cloud
Computing and the rest.

4. His front-running style should keep him out of trouble in the Derby.

There's one reason I give Battalion Runner a chance- he might be lone speed. Hear me out on this before you guys shred me.

So Battle of Midway is a likely pace threat, right? When Prat rode him 2 back he sat off the lead and pressed/stalked. If his connections think he has the versatility to not need the lead, I think they may sit off the pace.

State of Honor went straight to the lead twice in Tampa and got trounced. Leparoux had him sitting off the lead in the Florida Derby. He didn't like being in tight on the rail, but once he got clear in the stretch eh finished strong. So whoever rides State of Honor might try and have him sit off.

J Boys Echo will press too, but probably won't go straight to the lead.

So all of a sudden Battalion Runner might have the lead by himself. If he doesn't set the world on fire in the early stages, he's got a chance to hang on for a piece.

I think when it comes down to it, it's really if Battle of Midway engages with him early. If he doesn't he could run huge.

For that reason I hope Pletch considers Paco Lopez for the mount lol

Steve,

for Gafflione- Is he waiting on Pletcher to see if Pletcher will give him the mount on Patch again, or is the decision solely up to Gafflione at this point?

It's unclear where things stand. Seems like he's being considered, but both Patch/Fast and Accurate connex have balls in the air.

Girvin Update
 

Girvin wearing Z-bar shoes; final Derby work delayed to Saturday
By Jay Privman

So just what is up with Girvin?

For the past week or so, Girvin, the Louisiana Derby winner, has had an unorthodox schedule in preparation for the Kentucky Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs. Girvin last week was taken from his base at the Churchill Downs Trackside training facility in Louisville to Keeneland in order to train there, the stated reason at the time from trainer Joe Sharp being that the wet weather to hit central Kentucky made training at Keeneland – which also has a synthetic training track – a better option to stay on a regular training schedule.

But along with that change, Girvin had a potential workout from last weekend delayed. First it was to be held over to Monday, and then on Monday Sharp said Girvin would not work again until this Friday.

But video of the horse taken earlier this week at Keeneland and posted on the Instagram site of @takechargelady, the account of Anne Eberhardt Keogh of the Blood-Horse, clearly shows Girvin with Z-bar shoes on both front hooves. Z-bar shoes are used on horses for any number of hoof issues, ranging from a problem with the sole, the frog, to an abscess, to a quarter crack.

MORE: http://www.drf.com/news/girvin-weari...layed-saturday

‪Girvin scratches, Mike Smith picks up the mount on Lookin at Lee and he's 12-1 instead of the 20-1+ people are hoping for. ‬

Sonneteer looks like a good trifecta superfecta add on if he gets in.

I read today that Girvin was using the hyperbaric chamber this week in Keeneland.

plus the different shoes hmmm??


Amidst growing speculation regarding the status
and health of Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby
(G2) winner Girvin, trainer Joe Sharp said April
26 the colt is still on track to have his last serious
workout for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum!
Brands (G1) in the coming days.

Sharp said Girvin did not train Wednesday
morning at Keeneland as part of a scheduled
day off, but is set to return to the track April 27.

He acknowledged Brad Grady's multiple graded
stakes winner has visited the Kentucky Equine
Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation Center facility
in Versailles, Ky., to use the hyperbaric chamber,
a treatment he utilized previously on his charge at
Evangeline Downs Training Center after Girvin broke
his maiden in December.
"He didn't leave the grounds today. He was here.
He had been going over to KESMARC to use the
hyperbaric chamber earlier in the week.

Girvins' breeze time was :09 4/5 when he prepped
for the 2016 OBS spring sale. Two days after the
workout, Girvin injured himself when he stepped
on his right rear pastern and was lame.
Unable to send the colt through the ring at OBS,
Dodd and Grady considered sending him to the
Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale, where he would stand
out.
“I told Brad he would sell good there, but that
he still wasn’t 100%,” Dodd recalled. “He (Grady)
said we bought him to sell, but we don’t
want to take a horse to a sale that is not
100%.”
Girvin was turned out and, as Dodd
said, “the rest is history.”


When asked if Girvin was currently battling
foot issues, Sharp referenced the foot issue the colt
previously battled earlier in the year before running
second in a one-mile overnight stakes on the Fair
Grounds Race Course & Slots turf Feb. 4.
"He had an issue we made public back in January,
so yeah, he has a history of having some issues," Sharp
said.

From Twitter today:

Alicia Wincze Hughes‏ @BH_AHughes

At Keeneland all morning and did not see Girvin come out and train. Have reached out to Joe Sharp seeking comment on his status.


Not looking good for Girvin.

http://www.drf.com/news/girvin-tries...kentucky-derby DRF saying Girvin has a quarter crack, but has new shoes and is 200% better, according to his trainer.

common sense says scratch and wait for Preakness

derby fever


automatic toss

he will be my gimmick horse...if he gets in

Steve, are the probable fields for the undercards starting to take shape?

OAKS DAY


ALYSHEBA (GII)

American Freedom
Behesht
Bird Song,
Breaking Lucky
December Seven
El Huerfano
Honorable Duty
International Star
Noble Bird


LA TROIENNE (GI)

Big World
Eskenformoney
Impasse
Paid Up Subscriber
Streamline
Walkabout


EIGHT BELLES (GII)

Benner Island
Cajun Delta Dawn
China Grove
Florida Fabulous
Ghalia
I’mluckysgirl
Let It Ride Mom
Lovely Bernadette
Mopotism
Phone Chick
Pretty City Dancer
Summer Luck
Union Strike
What What What


EDGEWOOD (GIII)

Bernadiva
Dream Dancing
Emphatically
India Mantuana
My Sweet Stella
Purely A Dream
Stallion Heiress
Storm the Hill
Sweeping Paddy
You Missed It


TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (GIII)

Black Bear
Derek’s Smile
Green Mask
Holding Gold
Partly Mocha
Power Alert
Pure Sensation
Tell All You Know
Why Two


DERBY DAY


WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI)

Bal A Bali
Ballagh Rocks
Beach Patrol
Can’thelpbelieving
Conquest Panthera
Divisidero
Enterprising,
Flatlined
Kaigun
Kasaqui
Oscar Nominated


HUMANA DISTAFF (GI)

Carina Mia
Finest City
Paulassilverlining


CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII)

Awesome Slew
Clearly Now
Denman’s Call
Limousine Liberal
Masochistic
Solid Wager
Tarpy’s Zapper
Tom’s Ready


CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE (GII)

Believe In Bertie
Harmonize
Linda
Miss Temple City
Mississippi Delta
Roca Rojo


AMERICAN TURF (GII)

Big Score
Conquest Farenheit
Holiday Stone
Kitten’s Cat
La Coronel
Made You Look
Oscar Performance
Parlor
Ritzy A.P.


PAT DAY MILE (GIII)

Bitumen
Bobby On Fleek
Chief Know It All
Colonelsdarktemper
Excitations
Guest Suite
Impressive Edge
Local Hero
No Dozing
Rapid Dial
Rockin Rudy
Sonic Mule
Uncontested
Warrior’s Club
Wild Shot
You’re To Blame

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ns-connections Looking like Girvin may go in the Derby after all.

Pletcher's Battalion Runner, Malagacy won't run in Kentucky Derby

Asmussen now has as many runners as Pletcher.

After Battalion Runner, Malagacy, Lanerie, Sanatana decisions..
 

5/6/17 - Kentucky Derby

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) ~ Probable
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux)
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza)
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez)
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh)
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon)
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano)
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario)
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Luis Saez)
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano)
12. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz)
13. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux)
14. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/TBA-Tyler Gaffalione*)
15. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.)
16. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavian Prat)
17. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA-Tyler Gaffalione*)
18. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.)
19. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie)
20. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux)
------------------------------------------------------
21. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) 30
22. Local Hero (Steve Asmussen) 30
23. Master Plan (Todd Pletcher) 20
24. Petrov (Ron Moquett) 13

malagacy also waiting for preakness.

Betonline has Girvin currently at 26-1, seems like fantastic odds.

You can have him at those odds. Hard to play a horse in any kind of graded stakes race battling a quarter crack, let alone the Derby. To go a mile and a quarter as a lightly raced three year old off an abbreviated work tab and a bum wheel makes his task damn near impossible. He'll have to be a super horse to win. If he hits the board I'll lose every bet. Gotta break that egg, no matter how well he looked today. This is a play against for every serious horse player. Even at huge odds. There will be plenty of other horses at big numbers worth playing, like Thunder Snow, Hence, even McCracken might be 10-1+. No need to fish for odds in this derby. With that said, I'm sure he'll run off and win for fun...

If Girvin was 250/1 I would not waste my money, he wasnt good enough before the race let alone with all the training he has missed.

I meant the odds were a solid "value" as opposed to what was being offered everywhere else. 16-1 was the highest I've seen elsewhere.

So I wandered over to XBTV to watch the Derby horses work,I thought it was quite telling.
Here's how it looked:

Always Dreaming: It sure looks like he's going to be on the lead,he was wound up tight like an 8-day clock.
He wanted nothing to do with relaxing,or even bringing his work to an end.
Honestly he looked unrateable,but not in a bad way.
I just don't see how he doesn't bust the gate and go right to the front.

J Boys Echo: Dale Romans is pretty clever,JBE isn't much of a work horse......so Romans threw a bunch of stuff at him during his work,made him do things.
JBE must be solid fit now.

Battle of Midway: A Hollendorfer work right down the line.
Not a whole lot early,but the ending was strong and impressive.......that's how Hollendorfer likes it.

Royal Mo: He belongs in the race off his work,no nonsense and classy.

Gormley: They're sure trying to get him to relax,he's getting good at the right time.

Patch/Tapwrit worked together: Make no mistake about it........Tapwrit is the better horse.
That was an outstanding work from Tapwrit,no two ways about it.

McCraken: It looks like they're still playing catch up with him,if he shows well on Saturday Ian Wilkes should get all the credit in the world.

Irap: Worked exactly as O'Neil works his good horses,seems right on time.

Practical Joke: Saved the best for last,easily the best work on view.
Chad added the blinks..........beast work. :tro:

How's IWC been doing? Haven't heard anything about him all week

At Fair Hill so somewhat out of sight but all reports positive. Works this morning, ship Monday to Louisville.

Channing Hill gets call on Fast and Accurate..

Thanks Steve

Steve,
Do you remember if Motion followed the same plan with Animal Kingdom? I seem to recall he had a great workout at CD.

Thanks,
Bill

Different for Animal Kingdom because he needed to have the dirt workout 2 weeks out to convince Motion and Barry Irwin that they should try with him. Rest = History.

Todd Pletcher gives Tyler Gaffalione the call on Patch..

Steve (or anyone else on here can help me),

If Pletcher's 3 horses make the gate for the race- does that tie D. Wayne Lukas' record for number of Kentucky Derby entrants all-time? Or does it break it?

What are thoughts on the 'other' Casse horse, State of Honor?

If you like a horse don't let someone talk you out of it. Listen to their point of course but make up your own mind. He just worked at Kee 5F 59.60 b
seems like he is feeling pretty good

Might as well make it a Trifecta. The not so rich get richer!

Hedge Fund
Shareholder Value
Conquest Mo Money

Going into Saturday..

D. Wayne Lukas (1981-2015) 48/4-1-5 ~ Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (’95), Grindstone (’96), Charismatic (’99)

Todd Pletcher (2000-2016) 45/1-2-3 ~ Super Saver (2010)

Rock solid.. May not be ideally suited for 10f, but watching his races, gives if asked and is doing very well here. Hard to know where he'll be placed given Lezcano propensity for taking back and colt's best efforts which come on/near lead. Perhaps the most interesting of the long prices.

Thanks for the note. I like a horse who's had some races in him. I like him, Sonneteer and Tapwrit for the odds they'll have.

Can't wait to see post positions.

seems like a rock solid 2nd...but a good exotic play.


last 5...2nd,2nd,3rd,2nd,2nd