I disagree with this completely. Since the BC series was started in 1984, runners out of the BCJ have had MUCH more success in the TC races than those from the Remsen. Consider this information:

Runners that ran 1-2-3 in the races and then won a Classic

Juvenile
Tank's Prospect
Spend a Buck
Alysheba (2)
Easy Goer
Tabasco Cat (2)
Timber Country
Editor's Note
Point Given (2)
Afleet Alex (2)

Remsen
Pine Bluff (also ran in the BC)
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

That's 9-4 in number of horses and 13-5 in number of Classic races won. This doesn't even include horses that ran in the BC that didn't hit the board but still won a Classic the following year. U could add Danzig Connection, Bet Twice, Go and Go, Pine Bluff, Sea Hero, Lemon Drop Kid. It also doesn't include a horse like Cat Thief, who went on the win the BC Classic the next year. It also doesn't include horses like Blumin Affair and Tejano Run who also finished on the board in the Derby. And if u look and see how many horses from both races went on to win grade ones the next year, the clear advantage is even more lopsided in favor of the BC Juvenile.

The point here is that for all this talk about a silly jinx (and it's hard to dispute the fact that no horse has won both yet), the BC Juvenile is a much better place to look for a 2yo that will go on to have success as a 3yo. Running in the BC does NOT mess up a 2yo for his 3yo season. If u've got a talented horse, run him. Skipping the BC because u think that's a better way to get to the Derby, a race six months down the line, is stupid. So much can and often does happen between now and then.

King Glorious
 

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

My point wasn't to compare the two races. I would agree with u that the Hollywood Futurity or the KY race are better comparisons. If u have a horse that's started late and is not ready for the BC, then ok, skip the race. But if u have a horse that's ready to run but instead, u are skipping the race and running in another one, because of some silly jinx or because u think that later race will better prepare u for the classics the next year, I think that's a bad move. I think people focus too much on the fact that no BC winner has won the Derby and don't pay attention to how much TC success horses from the BC have actually had. I was responding to the poster that said that skipping the Juvenile is Tagg's way of saying that he believes this is a Derby horse and that he's saving him for next year.

I am going back to the original Champagne and run it all over again with the same odds. Rerun the race. There is one horse that I will take everytime. Everytime.

Pegasus Wind. A little racing luck. This horse wins. At 21-1. With Scat Daddy getting caught up a bit, NoBiz having a tougher race. Any sane person who understands numbers would take Pegasus Wind as a betting proposition.

Cunningham gave it away again by throwing Albert the Great in. He has clearly taught horses how to read pedigrees... and his opinions of them. Holy snakes alive... you are a madman, but fun. Keep em coming.

This I completely agree with. That poster also seemed to be indicating that Tagg skipped the BC with Funny Cide as well when that was really just a matter of timing and experience more than anything else.

Skipping the Juvenile because of the jinx is nonsensical.

What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year.

In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts.

WHy are you guys arguing?
Its obvious that Tagg felt three weeks back and a ship is just too hard. Kudos too him.
As far as King's assertion, any decent statistical whiz can show him the error of his contention, which is asinine at best.
King, hello?
The BC is a huge purse race that attracts horses from all over the country.
The Remsen is a local race run at Aqu on the same weekend as the KY jockey club Cup at CD, and close enough to the Hollywood race that a horse most often doesnt race in both(Tocchet being the exception).
You try and compare the two races, not realizing that you are showing an amazingly strong sample of NY based horses who actually went on to do things in the crown. You must realize that by limiting the sample to strictly Ny horses(or northeast) you cant accuartely compare it to the BC.
Tagg is not dodging anything.
Tagg is a smart and responsible horseman who is doing the right thing.

Read my post above. Tagg ran Funny Cide the week before the BCJ in the NYB Sleepy Hollow, and didn't really consider the Derby trail until AFTER that race, which was truly his breakout performance and made him a "contender".

Just for the sake of comparing, I looked at some horses from the Hollywood Futurity to see how they've done. Again, this is horses that ran 1-2-3 in either of the races and went on to win a Classic the following year:

Remsen
Pine Bluff
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

Hollywood Futurity
Snow Chief
Ferdinand
Alysheba (2)
AP Indy
Thunder Gulch (2)
Real Quiet (2)
Point Given (2)
Giacomo

U can take out Thunder Gulch since he ran in both races.

# of TC races winners (total number of TC races won)
Remsen-3 (3)
Futurity-7 (10)

If u looked at the horses from both races that didn't win a TC race but hit the board in one of them, u would add:

Remsen
Bluegrass Cat

Futurity
Stephan's Odyssey
Best Pal
Dance Floor
Casual Lies

That doesn't even include horses like Captain Steve, Millennium Wind, High Yield, Lion Heart, Temperate Sil, Brocco, and Afternoon Deelites, all of whom went on to win grade one races as 3yos after hitting the board in the Futurity. The Remsen claims Java Gold, Talinum, Skip Away, Coronado's Quest.

So maybe if Tagg is skipping the BC because he's looking for a successful sophomore colt, he should skip the Remsen and come West. Of course, now that the Futurity will be run on JunkTrack, it's going to become an irrelevant race.

A quick check shows that there have only been two horses from the KY Jockey Club to win a TC race over the same period (Editor's Note and Real Quiet) for a total of three wins.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. All I was saying was that the Remsen holds its own, along most likely with the KY Jockey Club and Hollywood Futurity, against the BC Juvenile considering people point much more for the BC Juvenile than any other race.

That's all. I never said, or cared, that one prep was better than another. As far as I'm concerned I only care about horses and the performances they gave, not where they gave them specifically.

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

There was no real point in that post. Just looking at the historical records (at least during the BC era) of some comparative races. And in the last 10 years, only one Remsen 1-2-3 has won a TC race.

No, Tagg was considering the Derby with the horse even before his Bertram Bongard performance. In the Bertram Bongard, FC won by nine lengths while under a strangle hold, posted a 103 BSF (the highest in the country at the time for two year olds), and broke the stakes record. That is when he began wondering whether or not to enter the horse in the Sleepy Hollow or the BCJ, and decided on the first for the reasons that I stated in my other post. A lot of people were pushing Tagg to enter FC in the BCJ just after the Bertram Bongard too.

Excuse me?

Horses two years old are still growing. They should not be raced imo. When they race, they compete. When they compete they run too hard. They are herd animals. They are bred to stay with or better, ahead of the group. Not like training where you can back them off and control things.

However, I will say I am really enjoying the reading on these preps and some of the stats thrown in. Thanks for sharing and looking all that up. This is really a good board.

Look, it is true. It is extremely hard on them. In general, it is very hard on two year olds to put them in a race such as the BCJ because of the level of competition. No race is a better indicator of future 3 yo success because, for the most part, the best and fastest two year olds in the country race in the BCJ. Just because it is the best two year old race in the country, doesn't mean that a lot of the horses don't have serious issues after running in that race. Some aren't mature enough to handle it. Sure, some go on without too many problems, but a lot don't, and that was the point that I was trying to make. That IS the reason that Tagg won't run his two year olds in the race. In fact, I was really surprised when he threw Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Champagne, but then again, the Champagne isn't near the race that the BCJ is. The BCJ's level of competition is unreal.

Good point. Had those two performances backwards in my mind. Bertram Bongard was the 9 length domination and the Sleepy Hollow was the struggle with Spite the Devil...
on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday!

That's cool. I didn't know that they were running against one another again...

see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html

Wow, that looks like some good racing. The Empire Classic looks really nice:D Naughty New Yorker, Funny Cide, West Virginia, Spite the Devil...

I'm also looking forward to Sharp Humor's return, and I want to see how Bad Boy Rising does in the Sleepy Hollow. I hope all probables run!

Thanks for putting that up:)

Ya gotta love the Muskrat Rumble.

Oh, I love it!!

It's the "boat" racing's big day... YACHT RACING!!!

Actually I'm most interested in the return of Sharp Humor. Interesting (but good) spot.

I know what post you are talking about and I'm pretty sure if he was going to plagiarize it on another board that he wouldn't have posted the exact same thing in this thread. I think they were just coincidentally similar.

Can u clue me in?

Someone brought up the BC Juvenile curse on a thread on here a week or so back and Oracle replied with a post that included the list of all the horses that ran in the Juvy and went on to win Triple Crown races.

Ok, I get it. Thanks. Oracle, I can guarantee u that I didn't see your post.

This is not at all what I saw. I saw Pegasus Wind drift slightly into Nobiz and that's when Nobiz started acting green and looking at the grandstand.

Can it be as simple is dont give up on this horse, Somemore experience and a better trip and a win is there. Why do you think a defense of one horse is a knock on the other. Just my opinion is a bomb will take the Juvi. Dont ask me which one because I have no idea. Someone will come in and throw an alltime best and beat the Pletcher bunch . Maybe even Pletchers 3rd stringer. These are 2yr olds and much improvement can occure early.

i remember when zito passed on the bcj a few years ago when he seemed loaded to the gills with talent. he had eurosilver among others...and said he was skipping to 'save' his horses for the derby. i said he was making a HUGE mistake, that if any of his juvies would be a viable contender, that he should run them in the bc. of course i was given ample harrassment, people telling me that 'zito knows what he's doing', he's the hall of famer, who was i to question..yadda yadda....at any rate, we all know how that turned out for nick.

if you have a good two year old, who you feel belongs in the bcj, and he's good to go--run him. there's no telling what will happen in the months to come. if you have a precocious youngster, race him.
now, i'm not saying this particular horse needs to run, it's entirely up to his connections...the spacing may not be right.
but everyone knows, or should know, that a horse who's good now may not be in the future...

a bird in the hand and all that.

as for any jinx, i think that's ridiculous.

Tell that to Tagg. It worked for FC, and Nick had bad luck with his horse...

There's no telling what can happen in the months to come, but there's also no telling what might happen in the BCJ. I probably would have done the same thing if I had some fragile two year olds who had a ton of potential. Who's to say that Eurosilver would have won or even done well in the BCJ anyway? That's why I think that cases of horses like Eurosilver aren't legitimate. Heck, FC might have won the BCJ and the Derby...who knows, but I would have rather won the Derby than the BCJ, and the decision paid off for Tagg. But it's not just the Derby. It's saving the horses from preventable injuries so they may race to their peak the following year. I'll leave the training job to the trainers because, most of the time, they make good decisions based upon each individual animal and each individual circumstance. Nick may not have made the wrong decision with his horses. It's an unknown factor because you don't know how his horses would have done in the BCJ, and whether or not they would have gotten injured in the BCJ that kept them from racing the following year anyway.

Or how about we tell it to John Servis who skipped the BC with Rockport Harbor and ran in the Remsen. How did that whole thing work out? I asked u about Ruler's Court earlier. The truth is that there is no guarantee by going in any race and skipping one now because u are scared of getting hurt is silly. U can get hurt in any race at any time. And the past record has shown us that quite a few really good 2yo's have run in the BC and come back to be really good 3yo's. I can give u more examples of horses that ran in the BC and did well as 3yo's than u can give me of horses that were purposely held out of the BC due to concern about injuries or whatever and went on to 3yo success.

Question. If u had your choice, would u just abolish the BC Juvenile? I mean, u seem to be saying that it's the right choice for any trainer with a 2yo that has any hopes of staying healthy and prospering as a 3yo to skip the race.

Yes, your horse can get hurt in any race at any time. But, the BCJ is harder on the two year olds than any other two year old race in the country. It is a simple fact that I don't see why anyone would argue because the figures are there.

No, I wouldn't abolish the BCJ (I actually like the race), but if I had a really, really promising two year old who looked like there was a ton of room for improvement and could get the classic distances, I would be damned if I would run my horse in that race because I know what it does to a lot of them.

And I can give you a ton of examples of horses that were injured in the race, retired, had problems throughout the rest of their careers because of that race, or were just never good again because of both mental and physical reasons specifically from running in that race. It is the two year old equivalent to the Derby, although the Derby carries much, much more weight. Both races ruin a ton of horses.

I believe that Tagg is the best trainer in the country with the quality of stock that he gets into his stable, and I believe that he makes very good decisions with his horses. I'll trust his judgment again.

Could it be as simple as the trainer doesn't think his horse is ready for the BCJ so is passing it up? Isn't that part of what a good trainer is supposed to do, not run his horse unless the horse is ready?

I don't think this decision involves any consideration of jinxes or the Kentucky Derby. Just sound horsemanship imo.

I think that he is one of the best. Each trainer has their strenghts and their weaknesses. For example, I think that Todd Pletcher is excellent at spotting his horses.

Why don't you like Tagg?

He speaks like one of the most professional people you will meet in any walk of life or any field of business that you ever spoke to.

Originally Posted by oracle80
"I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you."




get over yourself you big baby, besides you big dummy stats are factual information that can be accessed by anyone with half a brain, the mere fact you used the word plagarized to describe your displeasure speaks on how big your ego is and is a testament to how much of an ******* you can be.

Quit yer whinin!

This from a guy who doesn't have a drivers liscense and uses a BMW symbol as his avatar.
You'll pardon me if I take everything you say with a huge grain of salt won't you?

The guys that know Tagg say he is great at buying horses and great with turf horses, but he can be a little shaky on placing his horses and the timing of some of his works with his horses.

It sounds like Showing Up is definitely not going to the Breeders Cup. The owners did not have a preference and left it to Tagg.

I like riding in the BMW, its nice. Much better than the Mercedes