Garcia and Lezcano??

Thompson(only if the track is fast), Garcia, and Talamo. I know this equals 3 but these 3 horses seemed to be the most talented.

I think there's a good chance he gets squeezed at the start and gets forced to follow.

I have the same feeling about Garcia. First Derby and all but can't see him getting into any real trouble...

Conveyance is a very nice horse, that we know, as for the race/pace dynamics it looks congested up front so it will be a challenge. He will be a decent price, without trying to overthink how the race will be run or who will take back or who will gun for the lead. He's less obvious than LAL and SC, so that is a plus.

Is there an updated version of the past performances floating around anywhere?

www.drf.com

Ahh -- didn't realize DRF had a free version up. Thanks.

Paddy O
 

Pretty nice work of 58.4 in the slop today........

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...r/clocker.html

That can't be right. I think that was probably referring to his work of last weekend.

Great derby stuff,guys.





Do you all copy off croutons---or what?

Devil May Care is the WINNER!

No Lucky is a bad mistake. He runs well even under a bad trip which most are likely to get. He may not win, but if he isn't in the money, I'll never post a selection again.

You have a good analysis. You're right that Lucky can't be tossed. My daughter says Dublin should be eliminated but he always tries, the way they've been beating eachother, it just might be his turn. My top is Sidney.

My picks:

Oaks / Derby double

5, 8 / 2, 10, 11, 15, 20


Race 9 tomorrow: $5 win HULL (#6)

Race 11 (Derby) $2 win Line of David (#5)

exacta Key the 20 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17

then the reverse bet of that also.

might do another small Ex box with the 2, 10 & 11


GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!

My picks are based on the very good chance of an off track.

Quite simply if Paddy O'Prado can handle the switch to dirt or muddy slop in this case, he should sit a good trip behind the speed. Conveyance will be worked in on the slight chance the pace is not as hot as expected. He's too good a horse at an expected good price. Sidney's Candy is hard to ignore and I think this is the year to take a chance on the poly to dirt angle in the derby. Will work in possible longshots to save, namely Stately Victor pedigree is an interesting mix of dirt and turf.

1. Paddy O'Prado might surprise them all.

Boy were you right. Opened up at 3-5. Thanks but no thanks.

Does backtalk have a Mine that Bird type chance, I'm starting to think so.

My husband thinks so. I actually LAUGHED at him when he told me he put some $$$ on Backtalk. But then again I still kick myself for only putting $10 to win on War Emblem instead of the $20 my husband TOLD me to. I laughed at him about that pick too. I only put the $10 to win on WE because I had done well in the other races that day and had some extra cash and it got the hubby to stop calling me and telling me to put money on WE.

Those mine that bird races don't happen very often.

I totally agree. I am leaning towards a 10-1 or so less horse winning.

I'm playing Candy, Lucky and Ice Box. Good odds on all and hoping for nice exacta/ triple payout.

I like Sidney's Candy, Icebox, and Backtalk. I am going to bet one to win place, and if Sid's Candy stays double digits I think it's time to load up.

Jackson Bend has no shot, but you like Backtalk?

I think Mission Impaz is improving and could do well today and break Todd's winless streak. The more I looked at him, the more I liked him. (Oh who am I kidding. I picked him because he is a roan. haha! I didn't really. I actually like him on paper but isn't that what women are supposed to say? "THE HORSE IS A PRETTY GREY".)

But I think that Jackson Bend and Ice Box will be up for some money.

Got Conveyance in my annual Derby pool at work. So we KNOW he won't win. I nine times out of ten pick the rabbit in the pool. :)

I actually threw out Backtalk. (Hubby loves this horse though and I have no clue why.) I also threw out Sidney's Candy. He is not a Big Brown to win from the 20 hole.

Ice Box I really like though.

Happy Birthday. :)

Backtalk is 2 fof 2 at Churchill Downs and 2 for 2 on wet tracks

Playin' the Filly,the filly,the filly.

Diamondrella in the 7th
Warbling in the 8th
Accredit in the 9th
Blues Street in the Woodford Reserve
Noble's Promise in the Derby


Hollywood's Willshire (race 9)-Medaglia D 'Amour
Belmont's Fort Marcy(race 9)-Storm Play

I thought about this post the whole race. Nice handicapping. That horse ran really nice.

Sorry PETA, looks like Devil May Care made it back to the barn okay.

:tro:

:$:

Icebox ran huge and most likely wins if he doesn't have stop and restart, tough break for his connections.

I agree about Icebox. He proved his Fla derby was no fluke
He was my second choice. Indeed he ran second.
Sidney was my top choice. A disappointmnet & I don't think Talamo did anything wrong.
[i]t was a good derby and Borel was brilliant
Good Derby, I enjoyed it. I wish I would have won! Onward & upward to the Preakness. I'll root for Supersaver.

HOW ABOUT THAT, SATISH S. GIVING OUT THE TRIFECTA ON FRIDAYS SHOW:tro:

nice knowing ya!!!:D
just kidding.....i only hit the exacta, but thought it was a nice, even race.

the best moment of the day for me was General Quarters giving the big eff you to Court Vision and his crew...that was great!:p

Can't blame Gomez for Lucky's troubles this time when Garcia basically made a left turn straight into Lucky about a furlong into the race. That seemed unnecessary.

Actually Kent Desermeaux turned left into Garcia who had no where
to go but into Lucky, it wasn't his fault. I think they should just make the rail horse run with three legs, same handicap coming from that post, horse has no chance.