The South American is a crow, someone has to run third.

I think it's fair to give Big Brown some improvement, so call it 107, and that gives Smooth Air a very plausible high 90's (96-98). Don't know what to think of that last race of the day. Seems unbelievably fast. Very difficult to make figures, like old school GP.

FP he's not peddling shiat, he's dead on accurate here.

I love it when you call horses crows, I laugh every time :D :D You're right though, someone had to run 3rd, and he probably ran about the same as he did in Peru here, a mid 80's Beyer.

Credit for what?

He got an excellent pace to close into and was beaten double digits....

He did however manage to outrun similar styled Cool Gator...who could only manage a 5th as the 11th choice in the betting.

Hey, I got beat a similar margin in my ski race today.

I was a proud recipient of an Amstel Light blanket for that.

He's a very akward looking mover (don't really care for that style)... the Derby distance wouldn't be an issue for him though, that's for sure.

to me it wasn't all that impressive, 3rd, 12.5 lengths back. the comment says "outrun early, passed tired rivals". everyone chasing Big Brown ended up retreating, allowing those from the back half of the field to advance late.

All the colts had the paceto run at and they melted. Only one horse ran these fractions{BB}.Maybe all the negative posters can get behind the CLASSY GOODLOOKING horse again and bet him down to 5/2.

Are you guys talking in terms of BSF's?

I don't know what the par racing times are at GP. I do have the Beyer chart in front of me from his book Beyer on Speed. Big Brown's 1:48 for a 1 1/8 is a 122.

Beyer Speed Ratings for 1 1/8
Time BSF
1:48 122
-1 120
-2 119
-3 117
-4 115
1:49 113
-1 111
-2 108
-3 106
-4 105
1:50 104
-1 102
-2 100
-3 99
-4 97
1:51 96
-1 93
-2 90
-3 88
-4 87

These are the base numbers. Once they calculate the variant there might be some projection involved in giving these races a BSF.

Who are you talking about?

Who's the classy good looking horse?

Fast paces best setup deep closers...not stalkers, pressers, or mid-pack types

The chart I am using counts 100ths, and BB ran almost 1/5 (.16) slower than 1:48 flat. That is the reason for the small difference.

Elysium Fields.

Boy here's where you'll kill me about "Big Brown." He' s green, he'll bounce. Sorry:(

It jars the funny bone. To me he looked like Lost In the Fog going long. He surely scampered out of that gate incredibly fast and ran the field into submission just like LITF used to, but this time longer.

lol...its great though because that horse will be over bet now. how many horses win the derby in that fashion ? not many ! electrify actually ran a faster race , the fractions were almost the same and he came home faster and he was beating the likes of saint daimon and better than bonds. that track changed or something was up. those horses just are not that good. so go ahead bet him hard, call him the best until the first saturday in may. on sunday morning you'll be tearing them up with your hangover . ever since gulfstream changed the schedule, that race attracts very few good horses. i liked smooth air at least he won the grade 2 . he was the only one with a graded win at 18-1 , besides majestic warrior, who won the hopeful 7 months ago,the rest were your basic allowance rats.so go ahead call that a derby !lol

I'm seeing 3 yr old sprinters disguised as routers. I am not impressed with these 3 yr old horses at this point whatsoever insofar as running a distance of ground.

lower then 5-2 unless war pass comes back and freaks

With regards to Tomcito, I was slightly impressed with his race today.
On the one hand, he simply ran by some moderately talented colts who had made a much more concerted effort than he did to stay close to a hot pace. And, as others mentioned, he was still nowhere near the winner at the end.

But, given that this was the colt's first start off of a long layoff, and at a distance that is probably not his best, the fact that he wasn't close to a nice colt like Big Brown isn't particularly shocking. Tomcito actually broke pretty sharply but then seemed very awkward going into the first turn (he might have been bumped slightly....I can't tell) and settled back to last. From there, I thought his race wasn't bad at all. He might turn out to be nothing, but when stretched out to 10f in the future, he seems like the type that might win some halfway decent stakes races if the pace is hot enough in front of him.

FP he's not peddling shiat, he's on accurate here.

Jim, I understand now. I've already clarified this.

he's not peddling anything that track changed or the timer is wrong. the last 3 races on dirt were run at 1 and 1/8. the last two produced simular times. either the bonnie miss was bad horses and they ran 20 lenghts slower or the track got the "scrape". they always want these big races to look fast. unless its a poly track. i also feel that BB didn't beat much in that group either.

I don't doubt cmorioles' speed figs either. But it should be relatively easy to confirm that something significant was done to the track just before the Fl Derby, shouldn't it? It's not like they can lull an entire attendance to sleep while they back down an entire track.

--Dunbar

The point about Electrify in the last race at GP last night is a great one, and thanks to those who pointed out those numbers. Nobody seemed to be closing in the last two stakes races yesterday, just for whatever that is worth. Big Brown was all over the track the last 1/16th as well. Just a few day-after thoughts.

I was trackside and did not see anything done to the track.

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I say this to describe how impressive I believe his performace was (and to a lesser extent Smooth Air's race as well). Quite frankly I thought BB was an absolute 100% bet against based on the prior competition he faced, the impossible post, and the odds associated with the probability that he would win (or even hit the board). I was proved wrong.

I don't agree with the minimization of the effort based on the "group" he faced. Outside of horses named Pyro, War Pass, and Dennis of Cork the competition would always be questioned. Quite frankly he has accomplished more at this time of his career (March 29th of 3 year old season) than the past 2 champion 3 year olds (Bernardini won a NW1 at GP and Curlin had won a G3 in Arkansas in his 2nd carreer start over the likes of Officer Rocket and Teuflesburg).

it's not just the time of the bonnie miss that brought up questions regarding the surface, but electrifys time as well.

...

I don't think this is the right way to think about it. . .

The official Beyer is 106, which is exactly what I figured with a 120 raw and a 14 variant for the last two dirt races.

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

That is the funny thing. Only the most novice of handicappers would care about final time. If the debacle that has been Santa Anita proved anything, it is that raw time is meaningless. For some reason, the tracks still seem to think people care about the final time though.

i'm just surprised that no one has posted the ubiquitous 'i wonder how much faster he'd have gone if kent had gotten after him' post. :D

i do have a question tho.

i just read the write up on t'bred times and they say that his stamina was never depleted. but what about his stretch run? was he weaving like an irishman on st paddys day because he was green? or was he rubber legged because he ran out of gas?

I just watched the race again and he didn't look too good in the stretch. That doesn't bode well for the derby at all.

I don't think his drifting/swaying in the stretch had to do with getting tired, not nearly as much as it had to do with other factors (which I won't get into here). I am not saying he'll stay either. At this point, I am indifferent. As far as the Derby, for me, the verdict is still out but it's not looking positive.

Eric

The "secret" of his past physical issues is not a secret.

i think some people who seem to be jumping on his bandwagon will be elsewhere after the next prep. we see that part of it every year. a few weeks ago pyro was the big deal, especially after war pass threw in his clunker. but pyro hasn't been seen in a few weeks.

hard to say what to think of big brown. he ran well at 9f yesterday-but still plenty of questions about him-others as well of course. but his soundness is an issue, and i would think his ability to remain fit would be affected by that-as well as his ability to run at churchill. like moss said, that track is unkind to bad feet.

As i was watching this race yesertday i just kept thinking that surely this horse is gonna give up the ghost at some point.And he just didn't i know that there are some ?'s about the track but stil its just unreal to me that the horse went 45 for the half and just kept going. Have a lot of you seen that? I know that Bellamy Rd in the wood i guess comes up but something else was pointed out and that was the fact that the horse was weaving back and forth and a lot of the times it seems that people say that they are racing greenly but i have always wondered if it was b/c they are running out of gas. All in all it was an unreal display and i was awestruck for like 30mins afterwards.

Wicked good. :cool:

I said after the comeback race earlier in the month that Big Brown would be better than any horse that would run in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass or Wood not named War Pass. I still feel that way. There is no way this horse doesn't finish in the exacta in the Derby if he's in the gate.

that's going out on a limb.

with all the extra ground he covered late, he probably ran 9.5f yesterday. looked like franco harris out there.