Exactly.

You lose by 20 lengths and don't beat a horse at 1-20, what do you expect?

Yes

thing is, it's a no win situation. war pass won by a big margin in the juvie, it was the slop. he wins for fun, the competition is suspect. he doesn't overcome a variety of circumstances, and now he's no good. had he won yesterday, yesterdays group would have been viewed as 'soft', and let's just see what happens next time.

too many view this sport in black and white, when there are many shades of grey.

once more, maybe this horse isn't as fantastic as some thought, but i doubt he's as bad as others are now saying. but this whole crop is still a mystery, with the top of the heap being a horse who has lost to war pass more than once.
ah, but isn't it fun trying to figure it all out?!?!

Monmouth Park is a very speed favoring track. Add in the Slop which also favors front end speed especially Juves not used to getting mud in there face. He won by a diminishing margin each of his route starts vs Pyro (Pyro cutting into lead). He needed to be challanged on the front end, he was and basically he either is not 100 % or he quit, neither a good place to be this close to the derby. Also, the Juvenile jinx, do you really thing that we go 20 odd years before the Juve winner takes the derby and it happens twice in a row. IMHO this years derby will be a Great betting race.

It is one thing to be challenged and fold. It is quite another to never look interested. Something definitely seemed amiss here.

Runaway slop beyers are deceiving, what did E Dubai get at Belmont if anyone remembers? A 113+ if my memory is correct, take that race out and what are we left with in his route resume, don't forget those routes are 1 turn Belmont efforts, Johanessburg ran huge at Belmont also but never was quite a 2 turn horse. WP is a good horse and it is no fault of his he was hyped, but perhaps the blinders were put on when assessing him here. Everyone loves a brilliant undefeated 2 yr old heading into his derby yr!

If there is a horse without question marks - it's obviously Pyro.

He was always a very straight-forward read and you know he is going to fire on Derby day.

He has big 2yo figures on the go-back, but they came in losing efforts. He has all clear-cut winning efforts this year, but they came without big figures. He overcame a horrible setup in his return win. He put himself much closer to the pace most recently and won from just a few lengths off of the pace.

A horse like War Pass put together four straight big bullet works in September prior to his 9/2 Champagne win where he opened up 5 in the blink of an eye.

While War Pass looked like the kind of horse who was trained to peak for the Champagne and give Zito his 5th win in the race in 11 years - Pyro has always been handled the way one would train a slow developing horse who is meant to peak later on.

Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him.

A second place finish in the Travers and a win in the Suburban Handicap with figures at or above his slop win?

E Dubai was 1-for-4 on off tracks and 3-for-6 on fast tracks.

In a normal year, I'd argue he has never run particularly fast (I don't buy the Juvy Beyer for a second) and has beat nothing but tomato cans this year, but there just aren't any horses running fast races right now. He looks as good or better than any other horse.

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

If these SoCal races were run on turf, would you still feel the same about their chances on dirt? It is basically the same thing.

5 of the 7 fastest Beyer figures run by a 3-year-old male this year have been run at Santa Anita - and 6 of the 8 fastest since Christmas have been run there.

The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them.

Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

Cali horses were getting smoked when moving to dirt. Yesterdays win by Sierra Sunset gives at least me to say hmmm, maybe something is brewing out West. Georgie Boy also had a very nice effort... Maybe one sneaks in and we get Giacomo numbers... I think the low Beyers may be attributed to how races are now run on the Synthetic. It is more like a Turf race with no one wanting the lead until it is time to break for home.

He was "lucky" because he got a race over-flowing with speed horses his Derby year - topped off by Spanish Chestnut who was running as a rabbit.

Pyro won't get that kind of setup.

Well, that, and he just wasn't very good.

The high Beyers were sprinting...

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out... Again, pace scenario.

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

Giacomo won the Derby because he loved Churchill Downs, and Afleet Alex didn't run his race.

Heatseeker has the highest dirt route Beyer among older horses. Go Between is up there as well. From a different race, Monterrey Jazz is 5th this year routing.

Nobody says these horses couldn't be decent dirt horses. But, breeding or not, I don't see how they will be ready for a very fast pace after getting used to crawling for 6f every time.

They aren't 3 yos...

ID and I were talking about Beyers for three year olds...

And I just did look the Beyers up...

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

His first race...not so much his second one

This is rich.

You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85.

All of the numbers are misleading because of the pace scenarios in the races. Isn't that what I said...

If I didn't, sorry, that's what I meant.

I did say that...I said "Again, pace scenario"....after that statement about Colonel John and El Gato Malo.

I did edit mine before you posted...I realize they are older. The point is, you can get fast Beyers going two turns.

Devils Bag ?

He backed it up in the BC Classic.Despite the love people have for the DERBY,it's still very much a case of who loves Churchill Downs.

El Gato Malo's and Colonel John's dams were both better turf horses than dirt horses.

And further, both of their sires have been very effective at siring synthetic runners.

El Gato Malo is sired by El Corredor ...who sired Domincan to an upset victory over Street Sense on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass.

Colonel John is by Tiznow....who's current other horses Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed are all more accomplished on synthetic tracks than dirt tracks.

I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.

You added it...you didn't say it originally.

You are the queen of the edit button.

You know what it looks like when a Derby winner doesn't like a track? Look at the races Street Sense ran over synthetic.They can't quite get it done.They don't run f'n last.I don't think this is a case of load him up, and try again another day.

With a never in contention, suck up 4th?

Wasn't it a La Penta horse Bailey scratched from a race at post time at the Spa ? On national tv.

The real point is, and continues to be, the betting public is kept in the dark about the condition of the horses running in the races. A huge black mark on racing.

Good to know. I'm not really into that sort of thing once they run, but my eyes didn't tell me "dirt" when they run.

You got a recent example of a horse who ran that poorly(7-8 weeks before the Derby,)and still won the Derby? Would make more sense.Somebody run last in March,and then win the DERBY? I'd say the evidence points the other way,and people are putting a bib on a horse.You want us to be reasonable,but thinking this one has a decent chance to still win the Derby(if that's what you're selling) seems to be a statement without much reason.

War Pass did look very weak as the race unfolded. Reason unknown.

I just hit the back button right after I make the post because I sometimes forget to say everything I want to say. Sorry.

Not sure what to say other then I hope Mr. Zito can get over the pain of your disdain. Nick Zito is what is good about Horse Racing if you don't understand his love for the sport and horses then I pray you never have to diagnose anyone with a serious illness..

I am sure Zito is large enough after a storied career to tell ANY owner include Lapenta or Kinsman a horse isn't going to run when it isn't in the best interest of the horse.. Hind sight is 20/20...One thing I would bet on and that was WP was ready to win yesterday and 100% sound otherwise Zito would have never raced the colt. I don't know Bon lapenta but I assume Zito calls the shots and LaPenta is smart enough to understand that when Zito gives direction he takes it.. They have been partners for a long time and I seriously doubt LaPenta tells Zito when where and how to train his stock even a WP!

Maybe it's because somebody on here called him superior,and he ran last.Could be that.

Tiznow has also sired horses that were perfectly capable of running on the dirt.

Folklore
Liquidity
Tiz Wonderful

Colonel John. Turkoman...the dam sire...was certainly very accomplished on the dirt as was Tiznow. I don't see anything in his pedigree or movement that would suggest that he won't take to the 10 furlongs on the dirt. I don't think this horse needs to improve much. He is very good.

El Gato Malo. El Corredor out of a Mountain Cat mare. Again don't see anything in his pedigree that would make me think that he won't take to the dirt. With the way he ran in his last, the DI doesn't really mean much to me at this point either. He'll go the 10.

El Corredor
Adieu
Wanna Runner

Georgie Boy. Has turf action, and may be a little unsound. His pedigree is the most questionable as well. He should get the 10, but I don't know if he will take to the dirt.

Into Mischief (don't know what is going on with him). He should get the 10, and take to the dirt.

Harlan's Holiday
Denis of Cork

As for Well Armed, Bear Now, and Tough Tiz's Sis, how many times have they raced off the synthetic as opposed to the dirt? I know Well Armed went to England and UAE for awhile, but don't know what he did there, if anything.

Do you think it's possible for every track to represent every illness a horse has had between races? Race horses get sick like every other animal do you want them to represent everytime a horse takes a bad Sh_t also? lol

What a loser. And a wimp. Of course the condition of the horses can be reported.

Bellamy Road certainly wasn't 100% when he raced in the Travers. I know that for a fact. That was a big race, so it didn't really matter to me because they were only to get one race out of the horse anyway.

The owner said that War Pass was sick. Based on how he ran yesterday, I'm sure he wasn't 100% and they knew it. It wasn't so much that they ran him when he was not 100%. It was more of the fact that they ran a GI horse in a GIII race that really doesn't matter that much when the horse wasn't 100% when the KD should be the goal and is only two months away. If it would have been an important GI, and the horse wasn't 100%, and they raced him anyway, my views would be different.

They probably have some deeper motive for racing him yesterday if he wasn't 100% though. Maybe the horse was done, they knew it, and were trying to get one more race out of him. Who knows? I guess we'll find out.