Derby Trail Forums
Page 4 of 4 « First < 23 4
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20342)

Bobby Fischer 02-24-2008 05:04 PM
what were they thinking
 
kentucky bear went off at 4-1 :cool:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
kentucky bear has such a slim chance of being anything more than an allowance horse. Baker is known for send his 1st timers out in mid-season shape, and most of them are at a peak and good for maybe a maiden and an allowance. Kb drew into such a weak maiden field and it was pretty hard to tell if he really galloped out as well as it appeared or the field was that bad.

Plenty of better allowance horses entered like Cool Coal Man, Elysium Fields or even Golden spikes.

Can't see Make the Point or Adriano getting the trip they need, but they are decent horses. Worth reviewing their performances after the race with the track config in mind. You get 11 seconds to turn1.

For the sake of the division, like to see Court Vision, Anak Nakal, Monba, or Adriano run a big race. Not in love with Gomez on CV, although if Go-Go gives his good stuff their styles mesh well and could win it on the far turn.

blackthroatedwind 02-24-2008 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
monba dead last....geez...
He was a fraud going in and a lot worse going out.

First of all, his only race on dirt was very weak. He beat a terrible field with a perfect trip, and secondly " gallop outs " are extremely misleading and misunderstood. It's one thing with a firster who's going too short if he really gallops out strongly but for Monba in California all he was doing was running faster than others being eased up after the race was over.

ninetoone 02-24-2008 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
kentucky bear went off at 4-1 :cool:
Considering the morning lines, I guess Kentucky Bear was even more of a wise guy horse than Manba...of course, my dumb *ss kinda liked both of 'em...oh well :)

miraja2 02-24-2008 05:11 PM
Oh BF, are we supposed to quote ourselves when we get something right?
Okay how about....

Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Personally I think this is a really good betting race. It seems like you could go a lot of different ways with this one, but I think Zito's chances here are very good.
or maybe....

Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Why do you think Cool Coal Man looks awful? In my opinion he seems to be steadily improving and looks plenty competitive with these colts at this point.
or would you like...

Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
(Kentucky Bear) is likely to be the most overbet horse in the race.
Betting a colt with a sprinter's pedigree stretching out to 9f and stepping way up in class after an off-the-pace score going 8f is not usually a smart move as far as I am concerned.
Perhaps he is really just that good and wins, but as far as betting goes, I am looking elsewhere.
Wow! I am smart!

miraja2 02-24-2008 05:13 PM
Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left out the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.

SniperSB23 02-24-2008 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left off the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.
Yeah, he was the disappointment of the day for me. Why did they take him back so far?

paisjpq 02-24-2008 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left off the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.

it's improtant to select ONLY those posts which support your argument;)

IrishofNDMan 02-24-2008 05:17 PM
we can go back to an earlier thread about the most overtalked 3 yr olds this year where I said Anak Nakal.

Coach Pants 02-24-2008 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Elysium Fields for me. I think it's his coming out party.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I'm been high on him as well. An inside post would've been nice. :mad:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I've settled on Cool Coal Man as my top choice. Running style fits the distance perfectly. The upgrade to Desormeaux doesn't hurt either.
*pats self on back furiously*

*struts*

Bobby Fischer 02-24-2008 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Oh BF, are we supposed to quote ourselves
those are the only posts i read!:D

the_fat_man 02-24-2008 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He was a fraud going in and a lot worse going out.

First of all, his only race on dirt was very weak. He beat a terrible field with a perfect trip, and secondly " gallop outs " are extremely misleading and misunderstood. It's one thing with a firster who's going too short if he really gallops out strongly but for Monba in California all he was doing was running faster than others being eased up after the race was over.
I think you nailed this on the head. If a horse closes significantly in a race that doesn't come back, then you certainly make note of the effort. If a horse closes the best in a race where 5 of 11 (excluding the winner) are ALSO gaining late, why is there a need to take note? About the best you can say is that he was the BEST of the CLOSERS.

ArlJim78 02-24-2008 05:55 PM
Elysium Fields ran huge. Cool Coal Man got the jump on him and caught Coa napping, but he just kept rolling once asked. Considering the wide trip, he is the one that impressed me most in that bunch.

pgardn 02-24-2008 05:59 PM
Posted by DaHoss:

I like another Tagg colt Elysium Fields.

Damn good call from a while back.

Cajungator26 02-24-2008 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
*pats self on back furiously*

*struts*
This is great. :D

pick4 02-24-2008 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
I retimed the race three times, and got 1:49 4/5.
Take a look at DRF charts and you'll see that they timed the race in 1:49 2/5.

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...=20080224&RN=9

wac 02-24-2008 06:29 PM
With that time what kind of beyer are they going to give the winner?

justindew 02-24-2008 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pick4
Take a look at DRF charts and you'll see that they timed the race in 1:49 2/5.

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...=20080224&RN=9

Yeah, I timed it with the stopwatch feature on my cellphone. Not shocked I was off slightly.

pick4 02-24-2008 06:36 PM
see below

pick4 02-24-2008 06:39 PM
Unless Beyer & Associates updated the time to par chart a 1:49 2/5 is a 108. If the varient was 0 and there was no atmospheric change MSW winner Cosmic would have ran a 99.

Since there was 6 1/2 lengths seperation between Cosmic and Truth Rules my guess is we're looking at somewhere between 97 and a 101 for the FOY.

pick4 02-24-2008 06:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
Yeah, I timed it with the stopwatch feature on my cellphone. Not shocked I was off slightly.
This was a big screw up with their timer and this has happened many times before at GP. I was shocked but pleasantly surprised to see DRF's chart. The race seemed more taxing on the front runners than the slow splits displayed.

Cajungator26 02-24-2008 06:44 PM
Cool Coal Man - 90
War Pass - 102

easy goer 02-24-2008 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left out the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.
$2 of my money. DOWN THE CRAPPER!:mad:

Cajungator26 02-24-2008 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by easy goer
$2 of my money. DOWN THE CRAPPER!:mad:
$2... LMFAO :D

ninetoone 02-24-2008 07:17 PM
Were the times only off for the FOY, or other races as well?

pick4 02-24-2008 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Cool Coal Man - 90
War Pass - 102
The Beyer chart I'm looking at was printed in Beyer On Speed so it might have been updated but you giving a -18 route and a +1 varient for these two races. Cosmic running an 81 make sense. The winner of the 2nd Battle Tank with a 79 fits in.The fillies in race 6 figures to be in the ballpark.

Unless you heard it from the BSF fig makers your guesstimates make sense.

Cajungator26 02-24-2008 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pick4
The Beyer chart I'm looking at was printed in Beyer On Speed so it might have been updated but you giving a -18 route and a +1 varient for these two races. Cosmic running an 81 make sense. The winner of the 2nd Battle Tank with a 79 fits in.The fillies in race 6 figures to be in the ballpark.

Unless you heard it from the BSF fig makers your guesstimates make sense.
I heard those were the first computations. Cosmic received a 93.

IrishofNDMan 02-24-2008 07:58 PM
I'm on the Kentucky Derby facebook group and the Zayat boy is pulling out all the excuses. He gives me credit for picking Cool Coal Man, but says the slow fractions show him that it was not an impressive race. I then send him the DRF Chart link, and post the correct fractions and he goes on to say how it is crap they changed the fractions and there is noway they were going that fast because if they were those horses would have died on the lead and Z Humor or Court Vision would have won.

I know he wants his horse to win, but is he serious here?

hoovesupsideyourhead 02-24-2008 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I went and checked that group out. I'm sure the Zayat kid is nice, but he seems like he is talking out of his ass. He's beyond unrealistic.
ya think.. regular cappers 188 face book 1 :eek: :D

IrishofNDMan 02-24-2008 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I went and checked that group out. I'm sure the Zayat kid is nice, but he seems like he is talking out of his ass. He's beyond unrealistic.
I know what your saying. I'm not doubting that he is not nice, and he is only like 15 so that could explain how he feels his dads horses are suppose to win everytime and if not something must have happened wrong.

I use a lot of the good information I get off of here to relay to that group. Your probably have seen a few post from Austin Langlois on there.

pick4 02-24-2008 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I heard those were the first computations. Cosmic received a 93.
If Cosmic ran a 93 and Cool Coal Man ran a 90 then must have been a sifnificant change in the track. Do you the track was that much faster later?

There were two dirt races prior to the FOY so I'm guessing they did the normal between race watering and maintenance that is standard. If Cosmic is assigned a 93 and CCM gets a 90 I would make sure to watch the horses out of each race closely. BSF figs is an art and they do make mistakes at times with projections and especially with the FOY which on track timer said 25 3/5 opening quarter.

miraja2 02-24-2008 08:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I went and checked that group out. I'm sure the Zayat kid is nice, but he seems like he is talking out of his ass. He's beyond unrealistic.
Say it aint so.....

alysheba4 02-25-2008 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left out the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.
......... too bad i pushed $$$ thru the windows on that pack mule........


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:35 PM.
Page 4 of 4 « First < 23 4
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.