Rupert Pupkin
 

I appreciate your candor in watching the race and being forthright in suggesting that NoBiz had a tougher trip than you originally thought. This is exactly what intelligent disection of a race can do for all of us, certainly myself included, as because of Watch's comments, and thus this thread, you were able to see the race at least a little better. I'm glad someone benefited from that obviously biased article:D .

I don't think Pegasus Wind will win a stakes race this year. His next start will be in the BC Juvenille. He's not going to win that race. He will probably be right up on the pace in that race. You can't expect that he will come out of a tough race like that and then run a great race in his next start. He may need a rest after the BC Juvenille. He could come back and win a stakes race this year but I think the odds are against it.

Sometimes watching a replay just once is not enough.

On the workout videos at the 2 year old sales, I will often times watch the same 1/8th of a mile workout 10 times. Sometimes you need to watch several times to really get a good feel. Sometimes I feel like I'm "in the zone" and seeing things really clearly. Other times, I'm not seeing things as clearly and I have to keep re-winding the videos and watching them over and over again.

No doubt. I watch races and replays over and over again, not as much as I did when I played full time, but even now I certainly watch over 2000 different replays annually, often more than once, in addition to watching all the races in NY when they are run ( plus other tracks at different times of the year ).

IMO there is no better way to learn about racing than watching as many races as possible, from both the pan and head-on angle.

If I'm really trying to understand a race, or a particular horses effort/trip in a race, I may watch it over and over as many as 10 times. There are too many things happening all at once making it impossible to take it all in in one or two viewings. Sometimes I'll start with one opinion but after repeated viewings change my mind completely.

To me the most interesting thing you learn from repeatedly watching races is how often what you may once have thought was a bad trip proves over time ( after future results come in ) to not be necessarily a bad trip. Not to say that a bad trip will always relate to a vastly improved effort next time as I'm not even talking specifically. I used to overrate wide trips while believing saving ground was always beneficial. Obviously those precepts proved untrue over time. I am constantly amazed by the number of horses I see that almost appear to be spinning their wheels while down inside and I can't find any other reason why such horses didn't run their expected races only to see these same horses run much better when getting outside trips in their subsequent starts. Some horses hate being inside, while others always want to be inside, and for those that don't like it I guess it's some combination of intimidation and perhaps getting dirt kicked in their faces ( the two obviously aren't mutually exclusive ).

It's really a never ending learning experience, and also quite often horse specific, but to me it is the most fascinating and informative part of the game.

This may be the biggest waste of space ever put on this board. We needed 77 posts to sum up a simple race?
Allow me to sum it up easily if you would.

1) Nobiz like Showbiz had a trip that all in all wasn't awful, wasn't great, was right in between. He was green in the lane, and in making only his 2nd start while diving into stakes company, would certainly be the one with the most projected upside. He was indeed ridiculously overbet at 8-5, but the horses' odds or any bets anyone made do not change the fact that his trip was his trip and the facts are the facts.
2) Scat Daddy was indeed an overlay at 5-2 for several reasons, first and foremost being his experience and performance in stakes races up to that point, and the fact that as a stallion prospect with a pedigree that suggests two turns may be a challenge, the barn definitely had aimed at that one turn mile as the best possible chance to get that grade one on the resume and the horse was trained for the Champagne as if it were the main goal.

In a nutshell? It's not Nobiz's fault that he was overbet, and I find it hard to understand why it matters what his price was in dissecting a race. A horses' odds have NOTHING TO DO WITH HIS TRIP OR PERFORMANCE AND SHOULD NEVER,EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE FACTORED INTO A TRIP OR RACE ANALYSIS!!!!
I can't possibly stress that enough. Every time I hear some mentally challenged person explaining a trip or performance to me and mentioning the odds the horse went off at, I immediately assume that their parents were eating lead paint chips when they were conceived.
Odds and horses performance are not related, not at all. In order to properly analyze a race, the horses odds must not be considered.
Nobiz ran a great race for a horse who had a little trouble at the break and was green in the stretch in making only his 2nd start and first in stakes company. He'd be the one I'd say has the most possible upside.

Spot ****ing on, Mike. Nice job.

Thanks Joey but really I don't see how anyone could arrive at any conclusion but that one.
I think its pretty obvious when a green horse making his 2nd start and 1st time in a stakes gets beat only one length by a horse who is making his 4th start and 3rd start in a stakes race, that the one whose green and 2nd is gonna be the one who gets the ink about having more upside.

When I say odds shouldn't be considered in analyzing a race, I mean AFTER the race when dissecting it. I ,like many here, was stunned to see Nobiz at 8-5 and stunned to see that Scat wasn't favored. But that doesn't mean squat after its over and you pick the race apart.
Nothing is more hysterical(actually its sad) than listening to people make excuse after excuse for a favorite or well regarded horse after a race. Its as if they think that only faves can get bad trips and there's the old "well he only won by a neck but it was so easy and measured, blah blah blah". Thats garbage 99% of the time. How come noone ever says a 12-1 shot won by an easy measured neck? And how come when a favorite has some traffic everyone is always screaming that so and so should have won, but when you point out a tough trip that a longshot had, people respond with "doesn't matter, he wasn't gonna win anyway"? They are allowing their ideas before a race to interfere with the perception of reality
The first time you watch a race you are always going to tend to focus on the horses you have bet, thats normal. But when you go back to watch the replay(or replays) you really have to forget who you bet, and your preconceived notions about horses. You just have to watch the race and make notations about what you perceive happened.
That being said, Nobiz like Showbiz may have been one of the most overbet horses I ever saw in my life in terms of what I perceived to be value before the race. I thought his debut was aided by sitting behind a speed duel of 3 very subpar horses in blistering fractions and that his ten length win was more a product of a perfect trip where the others were stopping in the lane moreso than he was running away. So When he was 8-5 I didn't even cosider using him in my DD's. I pressed Scat Daddy and saved with Pegasus and Imanumbersguy.
But the reality of what I saw is that I misjudged his debut and didn't give Nobiz enough credit. Nobiz had that trouble at the gate(not horrible trouble) and when he made the lead he acted green tossing his head about like he was waiting on horses and running in spots. To do that in his 2nd start in that company I think hes the horse I would wanna bet next time out against this same group and can't see how anyone else could see it any other way.

What's worse than over-excusing a horse's trip as the cause of a lost wager is failing to note when you have a winner that benefitted from other horses' poor racing luck or unexpected race flow. I long ago learned not to think every winner I've cashed was the best horse in the race. We all benefit as well as suffer from racing luck.

I saw the race differently from everyone I guess. While I was impressed with NoBiz' move into contention I really disliked the way he leaned into Pegasus Wind when they turned for home. He was hugging PW all the way down the lane. The photo that accompanies Mike W's article (front page of the Wed DRF) shows NoBiz being hauled off of the inside horse as Scat Daddy runs by.

It's the difference of opinion that makes the betting possible and I hope alot of folks absorb Watch's article and march to the windows to bet NoBiz next month. I think he's too green to win the BCJ. That said, I think he has a ton of natural ability and if he develops properly he should be a major stakes horse.

Also, PW held on well and could be a contender in some of the lesser stakes at the end of the year.

Absolutely no question Stud. I can name a thousand bets I won because some other horse got a bad ride or a bad trip.
Anybody see Quickfire get beat by Society Hostess a couple of Saturdays ago at belmont? I singled Hostess and she won by a head but Quickfire got cut off and blocked at least 4 times in the race and was obviously much, much the best. I was obviously lucky to cash on the wrong horse.

Linny horses aren't machines and they sometimes take a few starts to learn their lessons.
What Nobiz did would only be considered neagtive by me if he does that again and again like Corinthian wound up doing.
Many a very good horse does what Nobiz did in his early races while learning his or her lessons.
He got next to no schooling in his debut as he shot to thelead after 3 duelers committed suicide on the front end. He cantered down the lane and didn't learn any lessons.
Now that they know he may be prone to waiting or lugging in, they will most likely change bits or maybe put cheater blinkers on him if he does it again.
In addition to that, a good trainer like Tagg now knows what to work on in the mornings with him and will probably make sure he works in behind a set of horses or alongside another one in company.
It was only his 2nd start, and its just too early to declare him a mental patient.

well tagg himself called his horse a big dummy

Yes he did, the horse is obviously still green. But I doubt he was referring to him in that manner as a very stupid horse, just one who hasn't figured things out yet in terms of racing.
You can't simulate all racing conditions in the morning. Most babies are works in progress.

just like me

You are 25 years old, you have no excuses!!!!

That's funny. I call my horses big dummies all of the time...

He is really big. I don't know how dumb he is, but he is huge. He makes Showing Up look really tiny.