Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That would be his only loss.

I didn't see much of a trip excuse myself. He made wild improvement in his next race.

Originally Posted by CSC

That's the debate, souped up tracks/flattering numbers/speed biases. We know where Pletcher stands with his frank comments after the race.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Souped-up track does not necessarily equate to speed bias, and Gulfstream Park on Fla. Derby day was a chalk-fest, which makes the debate even more uncertain.

To me the bottom line with this Dunkirk vs. Quality Road stuff is whether or not as a handicapper you think Quality Road can do what he did in the FOY/Fla Derby at CD going 10 furlongs with some additional pace pressers to put away late in the race. Provided QR runs his race, he will be on the lead and/or close. Then you have to ask whether or not Dunkirk, or anyone else, can outrun him late to the wire.

My thoughts on that argument:

* Right now, the pace does not look too brutal. QR probably is on the lead or coasting just off it. He will likely sit his trip. I do, however, question if he might get a little bit weak late in the race. Though he finished-up in the Florida Derby, I don't think he finished-up super strong as to where no one could catch him late going another furlong.

* Dunkirk ran a big race, going wide at GP is never easy, closing at GP is never easy. But he had a fair chance to run by QR and didn't. I think, at 8-1, he's a big-time bet against when you add up all the variables against him. At this point, I Want Revenge is a more plausible horse to run down Quality Road late than Dunkirk and scary enough, they might not be that far off in price.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Papa Clem isn't naturally fast enough to make the lead without having to be too hard used.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

because there are still a few others likely to go who are naturally faster than him.

Originally Posted by CSC

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

Originally Posted by gales0678

fresian fire?

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's a poor interpretation of the Robert Lewis.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i thought i read his final fractions were very good? or i might be confusing his last with i want revenge. like drugs, i think these two are the top two.

and i agree with your last paragraph.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm not saying it was souped up, but i have seen references to a front runner bias. i don't know if that's the case or not, it always seems disgruntled bettors like to place blame on things like that.
my question is, was there really a bias? and if so, (and i think QR is the real deal btw) what does that mean about his race, and the record?

Originally Posted by CSC

I was more or less addressing a thread where Drugs pointed out Well Armed couldn't hold a lead in a race when he ran on SA Pro ride as to what some feel is a closer friendly surface, but he did move up quite substantially I might add when he ran on Dubai dirt, that is why I posed the question as to what his thoughts were of Papa Clem and shouldn't this philosophy apply to this horse.

My point is even if this horse turns out to be a slug, if Pro ride is closer biased artificial turf. Shouldn't Papa Clem's race be upgraded?

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded. The race clearly favored on the pace horses. And, the fact that the majority of them stuck around is good evidence that the pace was slow (for those that choose to look at it from that perspective).

Either way, POTN ran huge.

Originally Posted by gales0678

ok then who will make him work / exert to get to the lead?

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded.