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-   -   Denis of Cork's stock on the rise (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20956)

SCUDSBROTHER 03-18-2008 01:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
In the past I haven't had a lot of success tossing horses based on who their exercise rider is. I don't know why that would be, because it seems like such a sound handicapping strategy, but for whatever reason, it just hasn't ever really worked for me.

I haven't tried that strategy,and don't ever intend do.It's just a weird coupling(that's all.)Iggy can't win,and Georgie seems to only want to win.It's actually pretty cool(I guess.)

wac 03-19-2008 09:51 PM

I know a couple of you guys on here have dennis in the 1st pool at 46-1 but only for $10 :( but oh well would still love to see him win. I like this horse to be honest and i was alwyas a harlan holiday fan. Just always liked the horse as he seemed pretty honest and i like the way the horse moves. Just seems very powerful. I dont know maybe its just a horse crush...

Pedigree Ann 03-20-2008 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
. . why can't he get the distance? ?

It's called 'fitness'. DoC will have had 4 starts lifetime going into the Derby and the last horse who did that was Exterminator, who had been purchased as a work horse for the better fancied Sun Briar and was substituted at the last minute when SB came up lame. And frankly, the best 3yos were pointed to the Belmont more than the Ky Derby in those days (Man o' War skipped it, using the Preakness for a prep race).

Lacking a foundation of race fitness, even so talented a horse as Curlin couldn't win the Kentucky Derby. Is Denis of Cork so much better than these other horses that he can manage what Curlin couldn't?

SniperSB23 03-20-2008 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Lacking a foundation of race fitness, even so talented a horse as Curlin couldn't win the Kentucky Derby. Is Denis of Cork so much better than these other horses that he can manage what Curlin couldn't?

No, but I don't see a Street Sense or Hard Spun in this field to worry about and there is no guarantee he'll draw a bad post like Curlin did. Is there any horse that will actually be going into the Derby this year that will be fast, fit, and free of question marks?

Payson Dave 03-20-2008 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
No, but I don't see a Street Sense or Hard Spun in this field to worry about and there is no guarantee he'll draw a bad post like Curlin did. Is there any horse that will actually be going into the Derby this year that will be fast, fit, and free of question marks?

Just in case that was not a rhetorical question....Not that I see so far!

SniperSB23 03-20-2008 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
Just in case that was not a rhetorical question....Not that I see so far!

Me either. Pyro is the closest but I'm still not convinced he qualifies as fast. At the most that is one horse that fits those qualification which I think it would be completely foolish to dismiss a horse as having no chance cause of lack of conditioning when there is really only at most one fast, fit, question mark free horse out there. Historical rules should all be thrown out the window. It's a new game.

hockey2315 03-20-2008 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
It's called 'fitness'. DoC will have had 4 starts lifetime going into the Derby and the last horse who did that was Exterminator, who had been purchased as a work horse for the better fancied Sun Briar and was substituted at the last minute when SB came up lame. And frankly, the best 3yos were pointed to the Belmont more than the Ky Derby in those days (Man o' War skipped it, using the Preakness for a prep race).

Lacking a foundation of race fitness, even so talented a horse as Curlin couldn't win the Kentucky Derby. Is Denis of Cork so much better than these other horses that he can manage what Curlin couldn't?

Comparing Denis to Curlin is pretty much a worthless comparison. Different horses, different trips, etc... And Curlin did get 3rd behind two horses that seem to be better than anyone from this crop. Denis has a little 2 year old foundation so I'm not too worried about his fitness level.

Rupert Pupkin 03-20-2008 12:42 PM

Denis is my Derby pick. I'm still sick that we didn't buy him at the Barrett's sale last year.

Danzig 03-20-2008 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
It's called 'fitness'. DoC will have had 4 starts lifetime going into the Derby and the last horse who did that was Exterminator, who had been purchased as a work horse for the better fancied Sun Briar and was substituted at the last minute when SB came up lame. And frankly, the best 3yos were pointed to the Belmont more than the Ky Derby in those days (Man o' War skipped it, using the Preakness for a prep race).

Lacking a foundation of race fitness, even so talented a horse as Curlin couldn't win the Kentucky Derby. Is Denis of Cork so much better than these other horses that he can manage what Curlin couldn't?

it's a whole new game. i tossed barbaro, even tho i kept coming back to him, knowing full well he was the best of the bunch--all because of the 'history' of running in the derby so long after a previous race. those things no longer apply, none of the horses these days are particularly seasoned.

Coach Pants 03-20-2008 06:12 PM

Now Denis of Cork is being indirectly compared to Curlin and Barbaro.

This stuff is hilarious.

Danzig 03-20-2008 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Now Denis of Cork is being indirectly compared to Curlin and Barbaro.

This stuff is hilarious.

i'm not comparing the horse, whether directly or indirectly, what i was saying was that you can no longer use what happened 20, 30, 50 or 100 years ago to determine what a horse today can do.

i'm saying use or toss the horse based on the horse, not whether a horse 100 years ago was able to do the same thing.
no horse today runs like in the 'old days', so why should the old days rules still apply? they don't.

Coach Pants 03-20-2008 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i'm not comparing the horse, whether directly or indirectly, what i was saying was that you can no longer use what happened 20, 30, 50 or 100 years ago to determine what a horse today can do.

i'm saying use or toss the horse based on the horse, not whether a horse 100 years ago was able to do the same thing.
no horse today runs like in the 'old days', so why should the old days rules still apply? they don't.

I think that's a bunch of horses.hit just because of what's transpired the past two years.

I'll toss Denis of Cork because he's slow, is skipping a prep, has a trainer who might as well be Jerry Brown, and his name makes me want to smash faces.

Danzig 03-20-2008 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I think that's a bunch of horses.hit just because of what's transpired the past two years.

I'll toss Denis of Cork because he's slow, is skipping a prep, has a trainer who might as well be Jerry Brown, and his name makes me want to smash faces.

i don't know that i'd use him either. as to whether it's horseshit, i guess it's in the nose of the beholder.

Coach Pants 03-20-2008 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i don't know that i'd use him either. as to whether it's horseshit, i guess it's in the nose of the beholder.

A horse with races under his belt who has faced adversity will beat a sissy who has been babied for one specific race 10 out of 10 times if the talent is equal.

Denis of Cork is a horrendous bet for the derby. He seems to be the media darling and the bandwagon is bordering on ridiculous as of right now. I actually hope he wins the Wood so he'll end up the favorite the first saturday of May. He has no shot in a 20 horse race.

Danzig 03-20-2008 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
A horse with races under his belt who has faced adversity will beat a sissy who has been babied for one specific race 10 out of 10 times if the talent is equal.

Denis of Cork is a horrendous bet for the derby. He seems to be the media darling and the bandwagon is bordering on ridiculous as of right now. I actually hope he wins the Wood so he'll end up the favorite the first saturday of May. He has no shot in a 20 horse race.

i thought there must be a problem when they suddenly changed their plans for last wknd...supposedly they feel he'll peak in two races, so they wanted just one more prep.
but then, you see so much 'trainer speak'. it can't be a good thing to change a plan you've had for months, no matter how it's spun.

no horse has really struck me as having much shot, not since war passes inexplicable loss. but hell, someone will win it. trick is figuring out who.


but as far as finding a horse who has faced a lot of adversity, and not been babied...not many fit that bill these days.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-20-2008 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Denis of Cork is a horrendous bet for the derby.

He's run three times - and really - where exactly is his good race?

All three of his wins have been moderate when you are talking about horses at that level - and even though this is a very low rated crop right now - Dennis Of Cork is unquestionably being overrated by some people.

I used the horse in the first round of that Road to the Roses thingy - but only because he was facing a moderate field in the Southwest - and was assured to get a fast pace to close into with Sacred Journey running.

Turf War (who is an absolute dog!) went off the post time favorite in his last race.

I'd take Big Brown before I'd take Dennis of Cork - if I had to choose between the the two - at least Big Brown has two genuinely excellent performances. Problem is, one came on turf at age 2, and the other came in a small field off-the-turf event.

kentuckyrosesinmay 03-20-2008 07:20 PM

I think Denis of Cork is the type that is getting good at the right time. He has a nice style of running for the Derby, and he is in my top five at this point. He is a beautiful moving horse, and he hasn't done anything wrong so far. IMO, distance isn't really a concern with him either when considering his dosage and pedigree. There is a lot to like about him. Plus, I love his sire. Since this crop is so "slow", I think he will do well.

It's too bad Richard Mandella's Harlan's Holiday, Into Mischief, won't make it to the Derby.

Payson Dave 03-20-2008 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
I think Denis of Cork is the type that is getting good at the right time. He has a nice style of running for the Derby, and he is in my top five at this point. He is a beautiful moving horse, and he hasn't done anything wrong so far. IMO, distance isn't really a concern with him either when considering his dosage and pedigree. There is a lot to like about him. Plus, I love his sire. Since this crop is so "slow", I think he will do well.

It's too bad Richard Mandella's Harlan's Holiday, Into Mischief, won't make it to the Derby.


if only you really believed that

Kasept 03-21-2008 05:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
He's run three times - and really - where exactly is his good race?

All three of his wins have been moderate when you are talking about horses at that level - and even though this is a very low rated crop right now - Dennis Of Cork is unquestionably being overrated by some people.

I used the horse in the first round of that Road to the Roses thingy - but only because he was facing a moderate field in the Southwest - and was assured to get a fast pace to close into with Sacred Journey running.

Turf War (who is an absolute dog!) went off the post time favorite in his last race.

I'd take Big Brown before I'd take Dennis of Cork - if I had to choose between the the two - at least Big Brown has two genuinely excellent performances. Problem is, one came on turf at age 2, and the other came in a small field off-the-turf event.

Where's his good race? (Is that you Andy?) All of his races are good races as they each displayed certain excellent qualities. The wide rally from far back while debuting at the difficult 7f distance at CD.. The determined effort against a slow pace in the comebacker in his two turn debut on a sloppy surface he didn't care for at FG.. The professional, straightforward 'confront and continue' victory in the Southwest versus two next out stakes winners at OP.. By my count, that's three different racetracks with three different kinds of surfaces where Denis of Cork has done what has been required to win.

Addressing the fitness issue, you can rest assured that David Carroll will have this son of Harlan's Holiday, out of an Unbridled mare, ready for 9f April 5, and ready for 10f May 3. Carroll gets on this horse himself, and in his prime as an exercise rider (Easy Goer) was known to be as good as there was.

Those trying to go out of their way to dismiss this horse are passing on what may be one of the few genuine runners of quality out there. I don't like that Carroll has concerns about keeping weight on him, because that brings into question how durable he's going to be, but for now, if you're determined to say anything negative about this colt you're trying too hard.


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