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brianwspencer 02-02-2007 10:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Speaking in TG terms, of all horses, Magna Graduate is the fastest horse, so far. That being said, I think he bounces to the moon. Two horses that you have to watch out here are Hesanoldsalt and Strong Contender. Each horse has some solid reasoning IMO. I am going to be gambling on the fact that Invasor is not 100% cranked. He was kept in training for ONE GOAL, the Dubai World Cup, another Grade 1 gets him NOTHING. At 3/5, he is beatable.

Most of Salt's family improved with age, and his last race was his 'best' race yet as far as figures. If he is keen earlier, he is toast as their is alot of bs speed in this race.

Now SC is a horse that I just can't figure out. That being said, he is just as fast as Invasor and will 5 or 6/1. If he runs to his LAD or that huge Belmont race, he wins here, and maybe quite easily.

I think the way you play this race is in the pick threes, all the hilarious public will be singling Invasor (my guess is about 85% of the tickets will have invasor on the ticket somewhere). Be part of that 15% and the $20 pick three ticket that you played might get you back a grand.
1.) i bet more then 85% of the public has invasor on their ticket. those trying to leave him off completely are just stabbing at huge payoffs, not legitimately capping the races. going more than one deep? maaaaaaaaybe. leaving him off totally? dead money anyway because those guys aren't going to hit the other races

2.) I haven't seen the TG sheets....Magna is really faster than Invasor?!

Scav 02-02-2007 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
1.) i bet more then 85% of the public has invasor on their ticket. those trying to leave him off completely are just stabbing at huge payoffs, not legitimately capping the races. going more than one deep? maaaaaaaaybe. leaving him off totally? dead money anyway because those guys aren't going to hit the other races

2.) I haven't seen the TG sheets....Magna is really faster than Invasor?!
What I am doing is playing a ticket like this, probably 5x4xStrong Contender. There is SERIOUS value on SC in the pick three's, maybe 20/1 or 30/1 in the pick threes, becuase everyone will be singling Invasor. All i will need to do is win the other two races, and I am fairly confident that I can get there, a $20 win wager on SC will get you back $120, but this ticket could yield at a minimum of $300 if I get there, and possibly as much as 1 or 2k if a bomb runs in the 1st or 2nd leg.....worth a $20 investment, possible a $100 investment because I have a feeling that SC runs his rear end off tomorrow, especially given that Ward can't blame post or anything else as he is locked and loaded from that area, there is a ton of speed so getting hung wide isn't going to happen. THEN I can unload against him when Ward tries to get tricky and ship him West off only a 30 day layoff and a huge effort

Scav 02-02-2007 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Invasor will not lose to this bunch. You're wasting your money. I'd pick a different favorite to knock off. McLaughlin said because the DWC is not so far away from the BCC, they never let up on him. He as as close to 100% as he's going to be and he doesn't need to be at 100% to cruise tomorrow.
that's my opinion.
Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)
as the mighty Steve Byk told us this past weekend at Gulfstream, "with Kieran, it's almost the longer they've been off the better they are coming back."

Take it to the bank. At 3/5, but still, take it.

I'd cover your value horses in the other races with Invasor and try to get back a little on the pick-X if you're wrong.

coltsfan 02-02-2007 11:10 PM
I could be way off here (wouldn't be the first time), but I really think Chatain is sitting on a HUGE race. This guy has the possibilty to put on a freak performance in the Donn. Won the Hal after 2+ layoff. Comes back with a bullet Jan 29th. I see no bounce here.

pick4 02-02-2007 11:12 PM
Magna Graduate had it his own way in his last start. He was able to set uncontested splits of :24 :48 1:12 1:37 1:55.

That was a pace which was well within his range. It might not be the same way this time. While he is not a need the lead runner, he's going to run close to the pace which will be much faster than his last race. In the DOnn he'll have the reigning HOF not far behind stalking as well as Strong Contender.

This race looks like Invasor will win. But Strong Contender has shown flashes of talent. If you believe trainer talk, John Ward said prior to his last race that he was not ready and would need the race
( http://www.drf.com/news/article/81662.html ) .

I think there's a single in the prior race so I will add another horse to my pick3 and pick4 tickets. I'm leaning towards Strong Contender right now as my upset possibility. This could change in the next 17 hours.

ArlJim78 02-02-2007 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)
Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
as the mighty Steve Byk told us this past weekend at Gulfstream, "with Kieran, it's almost the longer they've been off the better they are coming back."

Take it to the bank. At 3/5, but still, take it.

I'd cover your value horses in the other races with Invasor and try to get back a little on the pick-X if you're wrong.
LOL!! Cover!!!!! Not covering here my friend, only cover when I am alive to the heavy chalk for big money and I spread out on the 20/1's to guarantee to a profit....

I am like Anikan Skywalker and Byk is like Obi Wan, except Anikan doesn't lose his legs in our story.....

Think about it from an owners perspective, all this race is meant for is to peak Invasor's interest again so I could show him off in my region in his next start. It just so happens to be a Grade 1 because they still get a decent paycheck to workout and run 3rd. Money is no object to them, but a free day of training for the owner (running 3rd almost equates to that amount, roughly) is better then just working in the morning

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.
I've loved Strong Contender for some time, but the only horse I see beating Invasor tomorrow is Chatain...and it won't be on his own merits, but only if Invasor doesn't come with his "A-game."

ArlJim78 02-02-2007 11:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pick4
Magna Graduate had it his own way in his last start. He was able to set uncontested splits of :24 :48 1:12 1:37 1:55.

That was a pace which was well within his range. It might not be the same way this time. While he is not a need the lead runner, he's going to run close to the pace which will be much faster than his last race. In the DOnn he'll have the reigning HOF not far behind stalking as well as Strong Contender.

This race looks like Invasor will win. But Strong Contender has shown flashes of talent. If you believe trainer talk, John Ward said prior to his last race that he was not ready and would need the race
( http://www.drf.com/news/article/81662.html ) .

I think there's a single in the prior race so I will add another horse to my pick3 and pick4 tickets. I'm leaning towards Strong Contender right now as my upset possibility. This could change in the next 17 hours.
Can I ask who your single is in the prior race? While I plan to play Naissance Royal pretty hard, i will also be backing him up quite a bit. I going fairly wide in that one.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.
First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Can I ask who your single is in the prior race? While I plan to play Naissance Royal pretty hard, i will also be backing him up quite a bit. I going fairly wide in that one.
Gotta consider Wolfson/Castro there, I like Kent D's horse getting back to the lawn, and then Johnny V's horse is improving (paired his last two, which usually means EXPLOSION)

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.
right, but let's say we concede that to you.....

at 80% he's still better than most this field, given strong contender's inconsistency and chatain's certain unknown possibilities.....

which means that even with one misfire, he still walks even if he's not amped for this.

pick4 02-02-2007 11:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

His post makes sense. He's looking to hit a grand slam. If a longshot wins and it's on his ticket he'll be position to hit BIG. Worth a $20 gamble.

I think the favorite in the 8th is going to win which will lower the payouts on a Strong Contender win.

ArlJim78 02-02-2007 11:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
I've loved Strong Contender for some time, but the only horse I see beating Invasor tomorrow is Chatain...and it won't be on his own merits, but only if Invasor doesn't come with his "A-game."
I can't make a case for anyone beating Invasor. If lightening strikes or there is something wrong, thats one thing. But i can't look at the pp's and say, yeah this horse has a chance.

Chatain? Off his stirring defeat of Sir Greeley and SNS in the Hals Hope is now going to knock off Invasor in his next start? I just don't see it.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
right, but let's say we concede that to you.....

at 80% he's still better than most this field, given strong contender's inconsistency and chatain's certain unknown possibilities.....

which means that even with one misfire, he still walks even if he's not amped for this.
Disagree, and the figs prove that. SC is just as fast as Invasor, and SC is still about 6 months behind him

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Invasor will not lose to this bunch. You're wasting your money. I'd pick a different favorite to knock off. McLaughlin said because the DWC is not so far away from the BCC, they never let up on him. He as as close to 100% as he's going to be and he doesn't need to be at 100% to cruise tomorrow.
that's my opinion.

I tend to agree. He just doesn't seem like the kind of horse it is worth a lot of time and money trying to beat. There are simply better opportunities.

From a Pick-6 perspective, you pretty much single him, depending on how big your play is, and spend your money more beneficially in other races.

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Disagree, and the figs prove that. SC is just as fast as Invasor, and SC is still about 6 months behind him
but that's assuming an invasor misfire and a good day for strong contender.

the former has not been known to happen outside of the desert, and the latter happens more than most bettors would like.

so you're gambling on which trainer will get their horse ready for this one? kieran, who is known for these sorts of layoffs or ward who is a crapshoot at best?

you can have your non-invasor-including ticket.

respectfully, i say your logic is all wrong.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pick4
His post makes sense. He's looking to hit a grand slam. If a longshot wins and it's on his ticket he'll be position to hit BIG. Worth a $20 gamble.

I think the favorite in the 8th is going to win which will lower the payouts on a Strong Contender win.
People are going to over play that favorite in the 8th, for good reason. EVEN if both favorites win (Biz/Royale) I am still alive to a better ticket then a $20 win wager in my opinion. I am gambling on the fact that 85 to 90% of the tickets have Invasor, and then people will get sucked into Chaitan and Magna

ArlJim78 02-02-2007 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.
WTF! Sunshine millions? what did i do? are you confusing me with someone else?

They won't need to gut him to win, that's my point. he can win this in a hand ride and pride is important. You think they want as a tune-up to the DWC to not be able to beat Strong Contender?

we'll see. any horse can lose but i'm not betting that Invasor loses against these. plenty of other races to have an opinion on.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
but that's assuming an invasor misfire and a good day for strong contender.

the former has not been known to happen outside of the desert, and the latter happens more than most bettors would like.

so you're gambling on which trainer will get their horse ready for this one? kieran, who is known for these sorts of layoffs or ward who is a crapshoot at best?

you can have your non-invasor-including ticket.

respectfully, i say your logic is all wrong.
Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:33 PM
Strong Contender might be pretty good and is the likeliest horse in this race to challenge Invasor in 2007. His post hurts but he would be the only back up I would use on any tickets.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
WTF! Sunshine millions? what did i do? are you confusing me with someone else?

They won't need to gut him to win, that's my point. he can win this in a hand ride and pride is important. You think they want as a tune-up to the DWC to not be able to beat Strong Contender?

we'll see. any horse can lose but i'm not betting that Invasor loses against these. plenty of other races to have an opinion on.
I PMed you asking you if I you wanted to have an all day PARTY at Trackside, From Gulfstream to CAL-Expo. NO RESPONSE......

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.
Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.
OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

You're underestimating the payoffs.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You're underestimating the payoffs.
Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......
but the point is that i think most of this is moot, because you're relying on the horse of the year -- coming off a win off a huge layoff, losing against a decidedly grade II field, off a layoff again?

i won't be betting tomorrow because i'll be at work, but you can believe that i'd be crafting every single play around invasor tomorrow.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?
Your right, it might pay about 6/1 or $6 per every $1, the Bern example is skewed because the fields were less

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?
The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.
Do you really believe that Nobiz will be the same price as Scat Daddy? Certainly most will cover SD in the multi-race wagers, but as far as the Holy Bull goes...shouldn't Nobiz be a big favorite given all his hype?

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
but the point is that i think most of this is moot, because you're relying on the horse of the year -- coming off a win off a huge layoff, losing against a decidedly grade II field, off a layoff again?

i won't be betting tomorrow because i'll be at work, but you can believe that i'd be crafting every single play around invasor tomorrow.
It's sort of two different discussions....opinions on the races versus creating value.

I agree with Scav that if you like Strong Contender you are better off playing the Pick-3 using both NoBiz and Scat Daddy and then some weighted spread in the turf race as he mathematically rates to be a better price in the Pick-3 if for no other reason than the dispersed takeout.

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Do you really believe that Nobiz will be the same price as Scat Daddy? Certainly most will cover SD in the multi-race wagers, but as far as the Holy Bull goes...shouldn't Nobiz be a big favorite given all his hype?
It's close. It's a virtual match race.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.
25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's close. It's a virtual match race.
ok now when you say that are you talking about the RACE or the betting on the race?

because I find it to be decidedly one-sided....

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

Drums of Thunder took advantage of an extremely contentious pace involving distance challenged weaksters that totally collapsed. He's impossible in this spot. Bold Start is much more likely to fill out the exacta if one of the favorites falters.

Honestly, I don't get Drums of Thunder at all.

Scav 02-02-2007 11:52 PM
No-Biz is another horse you can't really unload on in exotics becuase that race means little to him. He already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby, the main goal, and Tagg is going to be progressive with him.....

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2007 11:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
ok now when you say that are you talking about the RACE or the betting on the race?

because I find it to be decidedly one-sided....
You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

tycharles01 02-02-2007 11:56 PM
Its gonna be a easy Pik 3 1 Deep in ALL

Scat Daddy wont come close to winning the Derby however this is a Mile race and he is pretty much a mile to 1/16 horse

Naissance Royale just towers over the field

Invasor is far and away the best Chatain will give a good run to a mile and then die (Guys keep forgetting that he beat Sir Greeley in the mile, if he had to go any farther Sir Greeley would have beat him and this race is 1/8 farther)

Scat/Royale/Invasor

JUST HAMMER IT HARD

brianwspencer 02-02-2007 11:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.
fair, but i still think it's his race tomorrow. i'll eat crow tomorrow if it comes to that, i don't see either big favorite getting beat, him or invasor


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