well then he is committed to losing the derby.

Big Malagacy fan? He committed to the best option available.

no, not that horse. true for the other one. if you get a mount in the derby you go.

Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.

but still hitting the board

Jon White Projected Kentucky Derby ML

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) 15-1
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 5-1**
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) 15-1
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) 20-1
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) 6-1
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) 20-1
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 6-1
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) 12-1
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) 15-1
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) 20-1
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/TBA) 30-1
12. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20-1
13. Malagacy (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
14. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Alfredo Juarez Jr.) 20-1
15. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Tyler Gafflione) 50-1
16. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 8-1
17. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Corey Nakatani) 30-1
18. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 30-1
19. Battalion Runner (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 20-1
XX. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr.-Manny Franco) 20-1 ~ Unlikely
20. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Rafael Santana Jr.) 30-1
22. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) 30-1
23. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) 30-1

Looks pretty spot-on.

132.5%

Some of these HAVE to be higher for the line to balance.

Moving IWC and Always Dreaming both to 8-1 makes it much more reasonable.

Here's my attempt:

Horse ML Odds
Girvin 12
Classic Empire 5
Gormley 20
Irap 20
Irish War Cry 6
Thunder Snow (IRE) 15
Always Dreaming 8
Gunnevera 15
Practical Joke 15
J Boys Echo 20
State of Honor 25
Conquest Mo Money 20
Tapwrit 25
Malagacy 40
Hence 20
Fast and Accurate 50
McCraken 8
Battle of Midway 25
Patch 30
Battalion Runner 25

Is Juarez for sure confirmed on Hence?

Geroux looks to be available and would fit him well.

Hopefully he won't make the same mistake he did with Normandy Invasion and make his move WAY too soon. This colt has a shot with the right set up and ride.

Am I the only one that thinks that Irap may be getting good right on cue, for connections that know how to do this, and will be able to make his own trip?

That, to me, is the one that if I don't play, and it pays $56, will be saying out loud that I should have had it.

Am I crazy?

Not at all...

"Going out on quite the limb" is my middle name!

Austin Going out on quite the limb Powers.

but really, I feel more confident in saying he will not win the derby than saying who the winner actually will be. Until the post draw the odds are slightly off now. You know who ever gets the 1,2 or 3 shoot is done.

Ferdinand was the last horse to win from the far inside post (in 1986), and you have to go back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978 to find a Derby winner that broke from gate No. 2.

- Overall, posts 1 through 4 have a 7.3 percent win rate but Super Saver (2010) is the only winner in the last 17 runnings.

The outside of the gate has had great success in recent years. The auxiliary gate (15-20) has had eight of the last 17 winners, including the aforementioned American Pharoah, I’ll Have Another (post 19, 2012), Animal Kingdom (post 16, 2011) and Big Brown (post 20, 2008).



https://www.americasbestracing.net/t...ns-the-numbers

but I have some thoughts on that.


and don't we get a Japan horse in the field every year?

Epicharis Earns Japan's Kentucky Derby Bid
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ucky-derby-bid

Conquest Mo Money will PASS on Derby.. Look at Preakness..

Jose Lezcano gets call on State of Honor..

Maann, this was the right horse for Paco Lopez

Does anyone know what way the connections are leaning with Malagacy and Untrapped? Am finding myself more and more intrigued with Sonnetteer as maybe a long shot bomber to hit the board. And who knows, with the way this years Derby prep season has gone it would seem fitting for a maiden to win.

Here are foaling dates for most of the runners in the field:

5/6/17 - Kentucky Derby

1. Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) March 31
2. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) March 21
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) March 20
4. Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) February 11
5. Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) May 2
6. Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) March 24
7. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) February 25
8. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) February 28
9. Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) April 15
10. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) April 21
11. State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) February 25
12. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) March 28
--. Malagacy (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 50 ~ Unlikely
13. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Alfredo Juarez Jr.) March 28
14. Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Tyler Gafflione) ?
15. McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) April 13
16. Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Corey Nakatani) January 30
17. Patch (Todd Pletcher/TBA) March 18
18. Battalion Runner (Todd Pletcher/TBA) March 15
--. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown) 40 ~ Unlikely
19. Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) ?
20. Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) ?
------------------------------------------------------
21. Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) March 1
22. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) February 14
23. Local Hero (Steve Asmussen) March 21
24. Master Plan (Todd Pletcher) ?
25. Blueridge Traveler (Ken McPeek) ?
26. Petrov (Ron Moquett) March 26
27. Lancaster Bomber (Aiden O'Brien) ?

Flavien Prat picks up Battle of Midway mount

guess the new connections wanted a "top" name

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ar-don-alberto


-bt-

Here ya go... :)

14. Fast and Accurate (March 27)
19. Untrapped (April 19)
20. Lookin at Lee (March 7)
24. Master Plan (Feb 14)
25. Blueridge Traveler (Feb 21)
27. Lancaster Bomber (March 14)

Reach the World euthanized after workout sesamoid fracture. Brutal.

Damn...poor boy, rest in peace youngster

Reach the World breaks down in work, euthanized at 3
By Steve Andersen

http://www.drf.com/news/reach-world-...k-euthanized-3

ARCADIA, Calif. – Reach the World, fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 8, was euthanized on Saturday after suffering severe injuries to his right foreleg in a workout at Santa Anita.

Reach the World was nearing the end of a team exercise when he was stricken. Jockey Martin Garcia was able to pull up Reach the World, who was vanned off. Garcia was not injured.

Trained by Bob Baffert for Don Alberto Stable, Reach the World was considered a candidate for the Belmont Stakes on June 10.

Reach the World had his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby. By Tapit, Reach the World was bred by Don Alberto Stable and had one win in four starts, a maiden race at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 4 in his second start.

Reach the World was second to Battle of Midway in an optional claimer on March 9 before finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind Gormley in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby.

Robby out of the Derby with broken ankle. New jock for J Boys Echo (Romans)

In the DRF:
Shirreffs said that Royal Mo wouldn't be on the plane to Kentucky (with Gormley) because he needed four to exit to get in........he didn't think that would happen.
Of course two took a hike soon after,so I wonder if there's a plan B. :zz:

Jay Privman‏ @DRFPrivman

Florent Geroux to ride Hence in Kentucky Derby, per trainer Steve Asmussen http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36317

Andy Serling‏ @andyserling
"Betting a horse in the Derby because you liked the gallop out of his work might be worse than betting the horse with the best bath photo."


I laughed....

Question on the status of 3 horses-
Fast and Accurate isn't nominated, right? Any word on when connections will make the decision to pay up or not to run? I heard maybe Maker was waiting to see how the horse worked over the track?

Is Thunder Snow in the US yet and is the plan still to run? I heard there were some questions regarding this.

When will a decision be made on Malagacy? But anyw word what is holding up a final determination?

Thanks as always for all the info Steve.

Fast and Accurate will pay 💰 to play. Still at the Spectrum with Maker's horses and seemingly doing well. Will come over when he has to, but don't think he's going to work at Churchill.

Thunder Snow expected Sunday.

Malagacy arrived at CD today and Pletcher wants to see him travel over the surface before deciding on withdrawl.

https://instagram.com/p/BTSgIdlju5h/

First I've seen of this. Pretty damn awesome.

Sorry for the thread jack ( please move to correct thread, mods ). Move along. Nothing to see here.

Dale Romans considering Luis Saez, Gary Stevens, Corey Nakatani, Kent Desormeaux for J Boys Echo..

Any word on Battalion Runner??

Not that I give him a snowball's chance in h-e-double hockey sticks, but I can see Bejarano getting the leg up for some reason.

Saez frontrunner as of now. Desormeaux a possibility with Romans frequently leaning to him in this spot over the last few years and having ridden J Boys (admittedly badly). Miguel Mena an outside shot too. Alsbaugh a decision after sleeping on it tonight..

No. But he looked terrific galloping today.

Big big shot.

I'm not trying to give you a hard time, as when you aren't touting every Baffert runner your opinion is solid, but how could you endorse this horse? He has never run a particularly good race. He was very much with a strong bias in the Wood. What about him suggests he has a "big shot" in the Derby?

Earlier in this thread I said Battalion Runner should run in the Pat Day Mile. That spot makes more sense and he would be a bear turning back. I give him a shot in the Derby by default. I want no one from California, Fair Grounds, Keeneland and Oaklawn. That leaves me with Sunland, Dubai, The Wood and the Fl Derby. Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming seem legit to me vs these other horses. But they are 2 of the 3 likely chalks. Battalion Runner is right there on beyer, lightly raced and working well. I think he has a chance vs a subpar group.

This is Todd's year.[IMG][/IMG]