I'm predicting a 99 Beyer for The Factor.

If her sire was Indian Charlie, she'd be undefeated and would have won the Classic last year.

I thought he moved too soon, but he actually was coming again at the end before the Factor pulled away. Not bad considering the way the track was playing, but to be honest....that turned out to be a pretty weak field. I'm not sure I want anyone in that race on Derby day.

I agree Betsy.

I think they should have scratched her today. She should never have entered there in the first place.

the factor has done nothing wrong
the half was blistering and he still had gas in the tank
i would not bellyache having this horse on derby day
be interesting to see who chases him next

I haven't watched the replay but on the first viewing it looked like he checked going into the first turn then somehow dropped himself out of the race.

He's probably a one-turn sprinter. I never really disputed that, his entire damside pedigree is full of sprinters.

If Baffert ends up on The O'Reilly Factor then I'm going to give up on this sport for good.

He was in a wrestling match with Gomez. The horse wanted to be forward - and the rider wanted to take him back.

Gomez put the Boston Strangler ride on him - and steadied him repeatedly trying to take him back.

I think he has a better chance - with a rabbit to help him - in a race like the Met Mile than he does in the Derby.

Pretty sure it will be higher.

I'm with you. I have one foot out the door anyway, that'll be the final straw.

His number is close. Probably will come back a 100 ... though it will be interesting see if they cut race #4 loose.

You're probably right. Havre de Grace will get a 101 based on her previous races, so The Factor will get a 100. We all know time is pretty much irrelevant when assigning Beyers these days.

We do?

Made me happy to have a future wager on The Factor

It was half tongue-in-cheek, a quarter trying to irritate you for the red boarding call-outs, and a quarter serious.

Let me ask you this: When you predicted a 100 for The Factor, was that based on the day's times, or Havre de Grace's last three Beyers and her final time today vs. The Factor's? Tell the truth.

Did Stevens ride?

:zz:

Did anyone else think they should have at least put up an inquiry on Eve Giselle in the 8th? I'm sure Glowing Report was done, but still.

it will be fun to see how long this horse can keep up with him if they both run

http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDc1Njc=

The pace in the 4th race was too fast for those type of horses.

If you use a single variant and ignore the pace in the 4th race ... you could have both The Factor and Havre De Grace's race a few points faster.

Ultimately, the figure will depend on what they do with the 4th race.

The magical split/single variant issue. Solves many a Beyer conundrum.

Could you imagine the Zenyatta crowd mixed with O'Reilly viewers? It will surely be a sign of the apocalypse.

In terms of splitting variant's and cutting races loose ... the Thoro-Graph's do it far more than anyone ... Ragozin's almost never do it ... Beyer's are a lot closer to Ragozin than TG's in that regard.

If they use a single variant - you're looking at a 104-to-107 range for The Factor ... if you cut race #4 loose - you're looking at a 99-to-101 range for The Factor IMO.

....and if they do what they normally do, which is assign Beyers based on recent other Beyers, lengths beaten today, etc etc, The Factor will get a 99 or 100. Just look at Havre de Grace and Caleb's Posse.

105 for Havre de Grace
103 for The Factor

FTFY

The far turn could get ugly if Flashpoint and The Factor both make it to the Derby gate.

Flashpoint making the Derby is the worst thing in the world for The Factor - I agree.

Who's Flashpoint?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...e.cgi?id=21162

Then there's this little gem: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...wale-challenge

By Pomeroy out of a Two Punch mare w/2 G2 7 furlong races going up to the Derby. Sounds like a plan to me. Even if they feel he can stretch out, it's hard to see how the lack of seasoning wouldn't cause him to hit a wall. He's also nominated to the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial, but it doesn't look like they want any part of the FD field, especially. I guess they're going to the Swale and hoping for the best on the graded stakes earnings at this point. I'm still not clear on the winner's share of that race.

I read a little farther down the Brisnet link and looks like Dutrow's dubbed This One's for Phil one of his BFFs. It's kind of sweet how attached he is to that gelding.

New York Watch: Flashpoint



Photo by Adam Coglianese, NYRA, Inc.