My top pick is Papa Clem. Crazy I know.

not crazy at all.....i like him, along with i.w.r., p.o.t.n. and f.f. i just need to figure how to bet it.

An Objective View
 

My daughter is a good capper but not at all into horseracing. She is in law school,so of course,she needs money. I told her to cap the derby & I would send her money. She is oblivoius to any of the info & hype we thrive on. This is what she sent:

Andrea’s 135th Kentucky Derby Picks
v The Bottom Line
Ø Pioneer of the Nile
Ø Papa Clem
Ø Dunkirk (my best long shot)

v Definite Eliminations Based on Lifetime Record and Who Beat Who Analysis
§ Westside Bernie
§ Mr. Hot Stuff
§ Join in the Dance
§ Atomic Rain
§ Summer Bird
§ Nowhere to Hide
§ Flying Private
v Eliminations based on the same but weak performances as opposed to poor performances
§ Hold Me Back
§ Advice
v Somewhere in the Middle all have a real shot based on those same factors
§ Mine that Bird
§ Regal Ransom
§ Chocolate Candy
§ General Quarters
§ I want Revenge
§ Dunkirk
§ Desert Party
§ Musket Man
v Outstanding based on same factors
§ Pioneer the Nile
§ Fresian Fire
§ Papa Clem
v Special Notes About Non-Eliminated Horses
§ Pioneer the Nile looks almost unbeatable he will certainly be in the money absent exigent circumstances
§ Desert Party and Regal Ransom seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another
§ Likewise Musket Man and General Quarters seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another
§ Desert Party seems a bit weaker than the others to me for some reason
v Horses who have made big bucks
§ Regal Ransom (no wonder the name), Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, and I want Revenge…..
§ I was surprised that Dunkirk made so little money.
v Based on the other information, blood, and jockeys my picks are:
§ Top 3
¨ Pioneer of the Nile
§ Sire: Empire Maker (Unbridled)
¨ Papa Clem
§ Sire: Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector)
¨ Dunkirk (my best long shot)
§ Sire: Unbridled Song (Unbridled)
§ Dam: Secret Status (A.P. Indy)
§ Other Possibles
¨ Friesian Fire (was one of my original top three but I feel wishy washy)
§ Sire: A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew)
¨ Regal Ransom (Good long-shot?)
¨ I Want Revenge
§ Sire: Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy)
¨ General Quarters
§ Sire: Sky Mesa (Pulpit)
§ Dam: Ecology (Unbridled Song)
§ Others that cannot be eliminated
¨ Chocolate Candy
§ Dam: Crownett (Seattle Slew)
¨ Musket Man
§ Yonaguska (Cherokee Run)

My top 5
 

REGAL RANSOM (#10) Garcia / bin Suroor 30-1
When my original pick declared from the race, I decided to go with a speed horse that is bred with stamina and landed on this longshot; upset his better regarded stablemate in the UAE Derby and can repeat that performance at huge odds; hoping he has a clear lead into the stretch and it’s to the windows!

I WANT REVENGE (#13) Talamo / Mullins 3-1
The logical “horse to beat” off his two efforts at Aqueduct after shipping from the west coast; overcame a lot of trouble in his brilliant Wood Memorial victory; has all the makings of a Derby winner….if you like a short price.

HOLD ME BACK (#5) Desormeaux / Mott 15-1
This well bred closer ran good in his last two starts (both on synthetic surfaces); one dirt try wasn’t that good though; at this price, looks better than other synthetic horses who have never raced on the “real” stuff.

FRIESAN FIRE (#6) Saez / Jones 5-1
Swept the Fairgrounds series of three year old races this year; hasn’t raced in seven weeks though, which could be a concern; may get overlooked in the wagering and does move up on a wet track.

MR. HOT STUFF (#3) Velazquez / Harty 30-1
This full brother to last year’s runner; Colonel John has no early foot & will be rallying late; could be a huge price if the race falls apart late; solid longshot play.

I don't think it's crazy, Coach. I think he finishes top three as well. Good racing luck to you.

Mark

I am on the same five and plan to add Desest Party and Chocolate Candy in an Exacta Box.

Best of luck to all playing and hope all horses and jocks return safe.

Just heading to the track now

Desert Party

Dunkirk

Papi Clem

Good luck

11:07 AM
Churchill PK3
Here were my picks from this morning for the pick 3 ending with the derby.

3,7,9 / 3,4,6,9 / 5,6,10,11,15,19

my annual donation to the super pool:

6+12/6+12/3+7+15/3+15+17

Did Steve dress Derek Ryan? :D

Edit: With I Want Revenge out, Pioneer is now on my ticket:

Exacta Box

Mr Hot Stuff
Hold Me Back
Friesan Fire
Regal Ransom
Chocolate Candy
Pioneer of the Nile
Desert Party

So I looked at the program information for NBC's coverage. I don't know if it's just my cable system or if this is what all yours would show but this is what mine says:

Thoroughbreds Old Fashioned, Chocolate Candy, Flying Pegasus, and General Quarters are among the top contenders for the crown, currently held by reigning champion Big Brown.

Inside on pace speed, Regal Ransom.

its yours

comcast says "key prep winners potn,, ff, iwr, ( with 19 y.o. jockey joe talamo ) head a 20 horse field. tp has 3 entries'



p.s...KG, you asked earlier about p3 scratches in the oaks/wr/derby pick 3...twin spires says consos on IWR

Wasn't me. I don't play p3s

Oh My God!!!!!

Wtfff!??!!?!??!?!?!

mine that bird?! lol


wow.
what a mess of a race.

calvin wins them both, holy sh!t.

WHO??

I hear Musket man then here WHO???

Mine that Bird never cracked 90 on the beyer scale right??? is this the same horse?!?!

I love racing, that horses form made Giacomo's look like Seattle Slew.

what merits did he have?

yes I am jaded, I had a good future bet on POTN.

i thought it was clem coming up, had no idea who that was coming up the rail. pfft.

sunland to kentucky. turns racing on its ear.

wow.... so much for the critics of who deserves to be allowed in the gate

I knew it was Borel before I knew it was Mine That Bird, unreal:zz:

golden rail bias perhaps???

had he not been in, someone else would have won. i doubt we'd have felt the lack.

the next gato del sol. gelded son of birdstone out of a smart strike mare. hilarious.

wish i had a ticket on him!

rail bias does not help you win it in a cantor.

Un****ingbelievable.

That's all.

81 career top Beyer, not competitive at SUNLAND, and romps in the Derby?!

They need to change his Wet Track Tomlinson to about 60,000, because there's no other way in hell that makes any sense whatsoever.

Street Sense and Round Pond beg to differ.

you have to be kidding me:zz:

dude, that horse could have chosen the 10 path and won by daylight, he was moving twice the rate of the rest of the field, the rail had zero to do with the win.

Haha, that was hilarious.

I guess Gomez has carte blance in Kentucky too. Cause it sure looked like he lugged out in the end squeezing Papa Clem and Musket Man. But it Gomez, so I guess it's ok!

I've never benn more puzzled with the winner of a race then I am today. He just relished a track that 18 other horses happened to just despise I guess. No clue what the heck just happened.

oh, that was him bearing out and mugging the other two.

i thought musket man gave a good accounting of himself. yonaguska ought to be leaving louisiana soon.

Well I guess you are right but I'm not sure how that's relavent... my point is that a horse that few thought belonged in the gate... won the race.

And to think the horse was on the waiting list to get in a few weeks back.

Wow... Totally stunned.. and broker.

Who the hell picked that horse?!!! He was in my "toss pile" right away.. Phooey.

Well this proves Pioneer of the Nile can handle the dirt. I choose him for the Preakness!!

Join the Dance really had an impact on this derby, he was suppose to set it up for Dunkirk instead he set it up for Mine that Bird.

Pioneer Of The Nile ran a very good race, he was close to the pace and was never close to the rail today, coupled with his ride on Zambezi Sun not one of Gomez's best performances today.

Jon White can sleep a little easier tonight.