I didn't think that to be the case: the chart clearly shows IWR to have run the better race -- or, at least, a distinctive race.

I took a look at the race to see why you thought PC's race was 'visually' impressive. I found IWR 1 path wider on each turn and drifting significantly in the lane (not Talamo's best effort). Of course, POLY experts will tell you that saving ground is not significant on that surface.

But, it's increasing become LESS about what I see in the race and MORE about what the charts indicate. And, when Trakus becomes commonplace (and we have more calls in addition to more accurate ones) then I probably won't be watching many replays at all. 'Visually' impressive trips can only get me so far as most horses are really not much better than their setup on a given day.

Discussing race dynamic is precarious but I thought PC got pressed by IWR on the turn, it looked like IWR was going by with big MO, usually a horse that makes that type of move will end up winning a race, however PC was able to re-rally. Regardless whether IWR is not as good on Synth than dirt, I liked that fight in PC, in addition POTN was so deep in the track I'm not sure PC could see him out there. This is all debatable stuff but one thing I do like about Papa Clem is he has shown he has a heart.

we should be discussing race dynamics a lot more than we do.

An alternative (and not necessarily correct) way to view the Robert Lewis , Is that all the horses who quit(markS , Oilman, shafted, brother keith, charliesmoment) simply SUCKED, and that they had very little to do with setup whatsover.

Mentioned on TV yesterday that Baffert has changed the bit on PotN from a ring bit (more severe) to a more standard D-bit. BB had used the ring bit because he had come to him using it, but decided after the horse had fought against it recently to try something else. PotN went nicely in the workout, no pulling or head-throwing.

Send it in!!!

With QR also out who's going to make the pace now? Regal Ransom or Papa Clem?

Join in the Dance joins the mix too.

2008 70 81 90 94 96 Big Brown
2007 77 86 92 93 96 Street Sense
2006 78 86 88 90 97 Barbaro
2005 86 92 95 95 93 Giacomo
2004 78 88 90 95 95 Smarty Jones
2003 74 84 89 94 96 Funny Cide
2002 68 79 84 92 98 War Emblem

Randy Moss pace analysis of previous derbies.

They go back to '92 here:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...cehistory.html

Lots of other cool stuff on the DRF Derby tabs too.

According to Moss pace numbers ... that would mean ...

Fastest figure for 1/4 mile in Derby since '92: Spanish Chestnut

Fastest figure for 1/2 mile in Derby since '92: Songandaprayer

Fastest figure for 3/4 mile in Derby since '92: (tie) Songandaprayer & Spanish Chestnut

Fasest figure for 1 mile in Derby since '92: (tie) Unbridled's Song - and whoever was in front after a mile in '98 .. I think either Real Quiet or Indian Charlie

Fastest figure for final time since '92: Monarchos


Spanish Chestnut actually returned off a long layoff in his first start since the Derby and won a 6f race in 1:08 flat with a triple digit Beyer. He was a nice rabbit. He actually sold for 500K at OBS Feb 2yo sale - a lot of money for a son of Horse Chestnut out of a No Sale George mare who raced for a cheap tag at Calder. Giacomo owes him a big thank you.

I wonder what happened to Spanish Chestnut? On another forum someone said he was made a stable pony.

Probably was.

He sure ruined any possible chance Bellamy Road could have ever had in that race.

Probably ruined Afleet Alex as well.

I thought Afleet Alex was being mismanaged and would have been a monster one-turn sprinter miler ...

I don't know if I thought that because he was defeated in each of his first three route attempts by the stellar trio of Proud Accolade, Wilko, and Greater Good.

Or maybe it was his Sprinter/miler pedigree combined with the fact he swerved like a drunken sailor to run down Devil's Disciple in the Hopeful.

Either way - great peice of training by Tim Ritchey. I was wrong on that call.

Interesting I didn't notice this before but I went back and took a look at Regal Ransom's races from Dubai and I concluded he is a much better horse than I first originally gave him credit for. I don't think the gap between him and Desert Party is as large as widely thought of and with this year's possible pace scenario, he's a very interesting horse.

Don't think Desert Party doesn't have early zip if he is asked for it.

He worked an 1/8th in 10.20 at Calder last year - en route to beating out highly impressive debut winners Munnings and Mr. Mistofflees for the honor of being the sales topper at the nations best 2-year-old sale.

For a son of Street Cry (who won the Stephen Foster going 9fs at CD with a 118 Beyer) and out of a Tabasco Cat mare (TC was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill with a 115 Beyer) ... he sure does have some good zip.

I'm not actually sold on Tector's point that a horse can't win the Derby coming from Dubai ... I just would have liked to have seen this horse been a little better at age two.

Hard to argue that anything that tops FT Calder is really a slow developer either. So there goes the "but what if he's vastly improved?" card.

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

Times are changing, I keep reminding myself of this when looking at this year's race. Derby myths = traps. It should be my signature to remind me of this fact. A horse will win going synth to dirt 1st time and a horse will win from prepping in Dubai one day. Will it be this year? I don't know, but I'm partial in thinking RR is a real nice horse.

The Sanford wasn't great but he did win the race. For Regal Ransom, I'll toss the Norfolk as disliking the poly- he was 7/5 in the race for what it's worth.

I would like Regal Ransom a lot more if Pletcher didn't enter that ridiculous Join in the Dance, who has about as much chance of winning the Derby as I do winning the New York Marathon. Of course, he can ruin it for a lot of other horses.

Join in the Dance actually worked a nice quarter mile in 21.60 at FT Calder and was one of the ones I liked.

What was crazy about him though - is that despite the quick and decent looking work - he only RNA'd for 90K ... that after selling for 130K as a September yearling.

Obviously there had to be a reason or story why no one wanted to touch him.

Regal Ransom's 93 debut beyer is only 3 points lower than POTN best lifetime beyer and better than any of Square Eddie's. Numbers aside he's going to be a good horse at a good price.

Regal Ransom also came out of FT Calder. 10.20 work for him. Nice to see like almost all of the pace in this race came from the same sale.

JITD would be a nice fit for races like the Dwyer, Lone Star Derby, etc. not as a sacrificial lamb in the Kentucky Derby. I'm guessing he was a private purchase out of the Arlington race- and shockingly, Pletcher hasn't moved him up an inch.

Plus his race on 2/12/09 was abit misleading, O'Donohue didn't have him in a good position in that race though he was abit slow to start. Alot will be made he rode the bias on DWC day, but when Desert Party came to him he was game and won on his own merit in my opinion. They could have kept running another furlong and he would have had a tough time getting by. That race wasn't a case of a 'Well Armed' alone on the lead ride the bias...

Who trained DP at two dude?

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

Suddenly this horse becomes an interest in the derby because of what he may or may not do. :rolleyes:

Any horse who could have an impact on the pace of a horse race should be of interest.

He's not going to make them go 21 4/5's but he's not going to allow RR to sneak away and go 49 4/5's either.

Add to this equation the two-furlong straight run to the turn, the 150k screaming fans and it makes it interesting.

Forgot my eye rolll... :rolleyes:

yea he's run sub 22 quarters and sub 45 halves

a real speed horse like Z Day blew him away, he might be too cheap to set the pace if someone better actually wants to use horse to get it,

but Join In the Dance has been consistent as far as being a fairly quick starter from the gate as opposed to the type who breaks habitually slow and has to be rushed up with urging.

If he is a sacrificial lamb, I got a few questions for the owner...why enter? If he is legitimately trying to win the race I don't see him impacting the race all that much, and yes the reason I am asking is because Regal Ransom is rising on my list. :rolleyes:

Isn't Join in the Dance a Pletcher horse like Dunkirk??? He gets out fast and Dunkirk is a CLOSER.

Honestly fits well. Join in the Dance gets out fast and Dunkirk picks up the pieces

I hope you do well in the Derby tossing them out.

However, like I said, tossing them out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai in my opinion is foolish. If you want to use Godolphin's 0-5 record in the Derby as your background, go right ahead, and think hard about the respective chances of those five horses who failed.

Sure, their chances would be better if they spent the winter in the USA but it's the owners' decision, and that's that. If you think it's a bad tactic, fine...I don't think it's a good one either. But know that they've gone about preparing Desert Party and Regal Ransom in a way that they did not try in 1999-2002 when their other five horses started.

NT

So you're discounting JITD's early speed just because you like Regal Ransom?

My projection in this derby is if they have the usual track set up for derby day, if Regal Ransom runs a 23 and change 1st 1/4 and a 47 and change half, he will be very tough to run down. Obcourse if you have someone pushing him through a 22 and 46 splits his chances will be far lesser in winning this derby. I think a 23 - 47 - 1:11 puts him right there. Once again I wasn't high on him until I really started to view his races from Dubai, and the DWC day race though not hurt by the speed bias was legitimate in the nature it was run in my opinion.

If there wasn't a bias, does Desert Party run him down?

yes

I know where this is leading, the easy answer is yes. I may have thought that also if I didn't do my homework. Now I am not sure, I like to think maybe RR didn't let him go by that night. They were 15 clear of the 3rd place finisher so both were not stopping. Suroor said DP was quiet the night before the race, I don't know it's getting a little overanalytical for that type of minutia...I'll back up a few bets ofcourse. Then again maybe these 2 are typical Godolphin's misses. All I know is derby myths are not as written in stone as they once were.

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.