Honestly if this horse is right, how can Big Brown not be going to N.Y without TC aspirations. There is a big drop off to the second best 3 yr old at this moment with only a handful of possible new shooters on the horizon. There would have to be something awfully wrong with him to lose at Pimlico in a few weeks, it's not like he had a perfect trip today either.

And for those who can't root for the connections...



how could you not root for Desormeaux and his family after that tearjerker of a piece on NBC? :rolleyes:

I think back on Smarty Jones thinking it was the slop, on Street Sense's red sea divide on the rail. The easy ones like Giacomo. Im always thinking that was lucky. There was no real luck in this one Z. They just kept the horse away from all the others. It was way too easy.

I sensed mostly skeptics after Derby wins. Not with Spectacular Bid. But certainly with most of the winners. If this horse stays sound. Way too easy, too much upside.

I think the performances of similarly inexperienced colts like Red Bullet and Bernardini are incentive enough to go for gusto.

And many a Derby also-ran came back to form at Pimlico. Pine Bluff, Hansel, Point Given, Snow Chief, Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, etc. etc. I would think Colonel John, who according to the chart made a middle move, and maybe Pyro, who had trouble early, would fit the bill this year.

go listen this, a exactly go start listening 3:30 to 3:45
Do you hear what I hear....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nssrqK-0VUg

I think to be accurate Big Brown is perhaps a pretty good 3 year old in a mediocre crop of 3 year olds. There is no way anyone with a sane mind would be proclaiming a Triple crown had he been born one year earlier, at times fate smiles on you and it has with this horse thus far.

I don't disagree, I just think a logical step would be the Peter Pan or The Barbaro with more of a preference to the latter. If all goes well he can point for a Belmont - Plate double. There are plenty of big races later in the Summer. No need to push a good horse too fast, well that is my opinion which probably doesn't mean a hill of beans to Frank. Afterall this horse just broke his Mdn in Feb.

The feet are a definite problem as already stated.
These will be the most closely watched hooves...

It is just hard to believe that after all these years following the Triple Crown from Louisville to Old Hilltop to Elmont that this is the horse that seems most likely to win all three. I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

He will be like the others,and get beat in the Belmont.Somebody rested for 5 weeks will roll by.There is a good reason the others couldn't finish it off.Most of them looked pretty damn good,too.

i'll believe it when i see it, and not a moment before. been there, done that, too many times. too many ways that it hasn't happened, when everything seemed lined up to make it happen.
just ask big browns jock about it...he knows all about losing the tc by a whisker.

exactly. there're many reasons why there are only 11 who have done it, and dozens who came close....

you're not alone.

something sick and twisted with the racing gods, if a horse like bid couldn't do it, but our newest derby winner can...

it's hard to believe that the rest of the colts are this bad! DoC finished 11 lengths back? the second and third best 3 y/o's are fillies and one of them left us today. sad

I know it wouldn't happen but I'd love for Big Brown to skip the Preakness. Listening to the post-race interviews, Dutrow really seemed skeptical about his chances. Imagine that. Before the Derby, he was overflowing with confidence. After that route, he seems skeptical. Well, not skeptical but less confident. He was saying how he wouldn't even be able to train him and may not even breeze him between now and then. He was saying how normally he likes to prepare for a race but now he can't. I'd love to see a trainer win the Derby and say "running back on two-weeks is not in the best interests of my horse" and skip the race. I can't help but think back to the Barbaro situation. Were his long breaks by design or out of necessity? Did the way he came out of races tell Matz that Barbaro needed more time to recover than a few weeks? Obviously, we know about BB's foot history. Is it totally behind him? Did Dutrow chose the Florida Derby and the longer break between then and the Kentucky Derby because he felt that chosing a later race wouldn't allow him the recovery time that he NEEDS? I'm not saying I predict a breakdown in the Preakness but with horses like this, it's always a little bit of a bigger concern for me. When Dutrow made his comments, it reminded me of why I liked Smarty Jones so much. I remember Frankel was talking about him and saying how he had the advantage of training Ghostzapper how he wanted to because he set the schedule while Smarty had his set for him.

You don't have to be better than him to beat him in the Belmont.Most of the others got beat by mediocre horses in the Belmont.It's not about how good they are.

With the fragile feet it is a long time to stay sound.
Throw in some mud at Pimlico.

I just cant think of a Kentucky Derby when a horse
ran so much further and made it look so easy. At little
bit of dirt, something. Kent D's goggles are spotless.

There was seemingly very little effort expended.
At least after the Florida Derby the horse looked tired.

This might have been a good time to admit you were wrong about Denis of Cork. You knew, or should have known, that it wasn't exactly a stellar group going into the race.

Uh no. The horse still was dusted and more than likely didn't run above a 96 beyer.

Just because this crop is horrendous doesn't mean I have to give this plug a pass.

Andy how did you do today with your bets for the derby I hadn't heard or read your thoughts pre race. Did you have this one figured out better than my own pitiful plays today leaving out the filly is just good enough for me to have nightmares for the month of May.

If you are a DRF Plus member you could see the videos I did with Dan Illman for all the stakes both Friday and Saturday. I actually did better overall than usual but nothing special.

I lost about $100 on the Derby. I was alive to four horses in Derby/Oaks doubles......bigger to Denis of Cork and Pyro and less to Tale of Ekati and Cool Coal Man. I boxed those four in the exacta for a few bucks and keyed Denis of Cork and Pyro in some bigger exactas. Far from my worst overall opinion....but a losing one nonetheless.

I said I wouldn't be surprised when Big Brown won by three or four lengths.....but I also said I would never bet on him.

He did a lot better than you said he would on this board....over and over again. I don't think anyone said he was a superstar....but many of us felt that because of the inferior quality of the field he had a chance at what was a solid price.

Once again, he didn't run great, but he ran OK and is a nice horse. Now, I have to revisit the Smooth Air thread.:D

Yeah and most of those people excluded Big Brown in their picks. F.uck them if they think I'm going to apologize for the rest of the field sucking ass.

You don't have to apologize.....but you were wrong about Denis of Cork and saying now that he ran poorly and was lucky, which is essentially what you are saying, makes you look silly.

Of course, and I mean this as a compliment, you go for silly quite often ( in a positive way much of the time ).

Is it so obvious that DoC ran well rather than just happening to be the horse that ran last?

It's late, and I'm tired and sick, so I don't understand this....but assume you are making a joke.

He ran OK in a subpar race. I think that most of us that liked his chances were banking on this being a subpar race.

The thing that really makes me look silly is assuming a few in this race would improve and run about a 95 beyer. The fact of the matter is Eight Belles is probably the only horse that improved significantly and she died doing so.

I'll admit this. Denis of Cork is consistent when you throw out the Illinois Derby. He's consistently decent in a crop of absolute bums.

*throws up*

And I don't mind looking silly. I took a stand and was a little off. I still think this horse needs an absolute blistering early pace to win. Guess we'll have to wait and see if I'm right.

It's horse racing....we're all wrong more than we're right. Nothing wrong with that.

By the way, the most incredible thing about the race, at least from a betting perspective, is that Big Truck was almost half the price of Tale of Ekati. If they were seperate betting interests in a random race on a Thursday at Belmont, Take of Ekati would have been 3:5 to Big Truck's 4:1. What about him did people like? Were people confused by his name starting with Big and didn't bother to see it was followed by Truck and not Brown?

I would like to see a matchup of the confusingly overated fivesome of Big Truck, Z Fortune, Visionaire, Smooth Air and Court Vision. I will say that Stutts seemed like a genuinely nice guy from the ESPN piece. It was cheesy...but he still seemed like an easy guy to root for.

What a great game.

Big Truck was probably the overwhelming favorite in the infield.

At the OTB, some chick was like "let's bet on the horse that sounds the slowest", and came up with him. My only explanation is that there were thousands of people that had the same angle and opinion today.

I'm not joking and my intent is not to break your balls, believe me. I know that you've been following the game for a long time, and when you banked on the race being subpar, given the way you bet it, I'm assuming that you thought the winner was a subpar horse as well. In that case, I can understand trying to beat him with horses that some would think were subpar in relation to him. But you also add that it wouldn't suprise you if he won by open lengths and to not take advantage of a $37.00 double (since you had the winner of the Oaks) just doesn't make sense to me.

And I also don't think, out of hand, that DoC is any better than some of the other closers in the race; he just happened to make the last move.

There's probably a lot of truth in that.

As you can see from the amount I bet, I didn't bet very much in the double, and good luck finding the willpays.

Casino Drive is waiting for the Belmont. The owners think that they have the hosre to get the distance. He is a half to Jazel and Rags to Riches. We will see.

I wasn't a tale of ekati fan, but I was a bit surprised to see the Wood Winner at nearly 40-1.. I mean, he's not great, but he's better than Tapit!!..

Why is he necessarily better than Tapit?

Is there any chance at all Harlem Rocker goes in the Preakness?? I know he was talked about a ton here recently.

I don't have the stats to back this up, but it has always been my impression that Dick Dutrow horses as a rule run big races off extended layoffs, would anyone agree? If so the timing of the Triple Crown may be Big Brown's undoing and not as much to do with the competition. Dutrow usually likes to space his races out, a luxury he doesn't have here.

He was mentioned in the bloodhorse article as a possible starter.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45042.htm

Things can change but this was the latest article I found on the web.

Link here for Harlem Rocker: http://www.scaredycatfilms.com/adena...ker/index.html

April 27TH, 2008

This article from the Daily Racing Form mentions that Harlem Rocker may still be pointed towards the Queen's Plate and the Queen's Plate Trial at the start of the month of June. There's also a shout out to the Adena Racing Venture, that we are a small part of. From DRF:

Harlem Rocker remains perfect in Withers
By DAVID GRENING
OZONE PARK, N.Y. - Todd Pletcher's recent assault on North America's 3-year-old graded stakes continued Saturday at Aqueduct when Harlem Rocker blew past odds-on favorite J Be K inside the eighth pole to win the Grade 3, $150,000 Withers Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths.

J Be K, who set all the early fractions under Garrett Gomez, finished second by 7 3/4 lengths over Double or Nothing. Face the Cat was last.

The victory was the third from as many starts for Harlem Rocker, a Canadian-bred son of Macho Uno owned and bred by Frank Stronach. Harlem Rocker is part of the Adena Springs Racing Venture, a package of six Stronach-bred colts that Stronach owns with other partners.