He'll run if among the top 20 earners come the draw.

i'm not sure i understand. can you clarify this?

LMAO

Well played, sir.

now that was funny!:)

i wish you'd stop with all the technical jargon and just say what you mean.

Oh God, Gander saying my pick MAY have a shot? Honestly, after his last race I told my husband "I believe that is my Derby horse." It was the first thing that came to my mind. He ran WIDE into the final turn and was still game at the end of the race. I really like this horse. :D

So if I understand you correctly, IF the horse runs, he'll be wearing Reeboks. Is this an accepted shoe? If the track is muddy, can he wear Reeboks with mud caulks?

Shouldn't the horse also have a water bottle?

Uh oh, that is bad news. If Massive Drama were to win the Derby Trial and it were Denis of Cork he'd be bumping rather than Halo Najib can you really imagine Zayat not pushing to run him in the Derby?

Didn't the Derby Trial lose its graded status?

Yeah but doesn't make any difference with a horse that already has the earnings.

My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

Like what you are doing here, but it seems weighted towards the 20-30 range, where they are probably 3-4 horses that will be in the 50 to 80/1 range

They look pretty spot on to me. Thanks for posting those.

I do think Visionaire and Court Vision will be considerably lower than the ones you predict at maybe 25/1 and 18/1 respectively.

16-1 on Cool Coal Man looks low. . . At least it'll mean that my future bet on him at 20-1 actually offered value. . .

I agree with Scavs and expect a couple of them to be higher in the 45 or 50-1 range. I was thinking Monba will be higher than 13-1, and recapturetheglory is one of the horses that will be 40-1.

It would be hard to imagine Recapturetheglory being 40-1 coming off a win with a relatively high fig. . .

who do you think will be lower than my guesses? remember this was done with the true math included, so for every horse that's higher odds there's got to be one lower.

I predicted recapturetheglory at 40-1 rather than 25-1, and Monba at 20-1 rather than 13-1.

I would say that Gayego will be about 14-1 instead of 21-1 (I'm not touching either way) and I think Smooth Air will be in the 20's instead of 32-1.

Don't get me wrong I think it's a great list you made, I wanted to just add some of my opinions.

It's the difference between what he likely deserves to be and what he actually WILL be. That Hawthorne fig will jump off the page to lots of casual bettors with no real knowledge of what happened outside of the bold number attached to it.

I'd be shocked if he was sent to post at 40-1, coming in with one of the best last race Beyers.

Monba and Gayego are two very interesting possibilities in terms of their off odds. Monba, you have the Pletcher factor for but the average dirt form against. Gayego, you have an excellent overall form but a severely disadvantaged pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, plus somewhat lesser connections, even with Mike Smith riding. I could see you being right on both those, as if you just look at PP's and ignore the pedigree and connections, Gayego is the much better horse.

It's a fun and difficult exercise, because it really gets you focused on what the public will think rather than what YOU want it to be. Perhaps my hope on Smooth Air is 32-1 and I'm being too optimistic, he certainly could take more money that that.

I think Recapture the Glory is well near or even more than 40/1 come post time. The Illinois Derby isnt really all that well known. Especially to the guys who bet big on just this day like Kid Rock. Hes going to look at that race and be like, "I didnt even know there was an Illinois Derby." He beat a bunch of lizards that day. Neither him nor anyone in that field will see the top 10 in the Derby when its all said and done. He wont get away loose on the lead with Bob Black Jack either.

I initially thought 16/1 was too low for Cool Coal Man, but Zito has a huge fanbase, many of whom bet big on this race and they want whichever horse he is training. The other one is a turtle, so Cool Coal Man is their only viable option. Friends of his like Mickelson and George Clooney will probably plunk down 100K between them to win. If War Pass was in, Cool Coal Man would be closer to 40/1. Now Zito obsessors will make him in the teens.

:rolleyes:

My first and only rolleyes post.

As opposed to all of the celebrity big spenders for whom the Wood Memorial just jumps off the page?

I'm with Drugs. Wow.

The Wood, Florida Derby are the 2 high profile ones. The Arkansas Derby has increased in stock because the Blue Grass and SA Derby are now run on the crap. But I agree, this year's Wood stunk, save for a huge effort by War Pass just to last as long as he did. If Tale of Ekati was anything other than a turtle, he would have collared him at the top of the stretch.

As far as the big spenders go, they bet the high profile trainers like Zito, Baffert and Lukas, and we are only down to Zito for this year. Cool Coal Man equals a terrible underlay imo.

If I find out who Ben Affleck likes, I will let you know. His bet will move a horse's odds probably 5-7 points.

Just got off the phone with Ben
 

He gives his pick here:

LOL! That duck knows more than Ben about horses. But the difference is that duck poops feces, and Ben poops $100 bills faster than an ATM machine.
If I had his money I would spend all my time at the dirtiest OTB I could find and never have to wash my hair again. I'd fit right in.

The winner of the Illinois Derby has gone off at:
2002: 21-1 (War Emblem, won)
2003: 6.6-1 (Ten Most Wanted, 9th)
2004: 24-1 (Pollard's Vision, 17th)
2005: 21-1 (Greeley's Galaxy, 11th)
2006: 5.5-1*favorite (Sweetnorthernsaint, 7th)
2007: 19.8-1 (Cowtown Cat, 20th and last)

All had similar credentials coming into the Derby as Recapturetheglory- I think you're underestimating the betting public's knowledge of the race.

And celebrity selections don't drive the odds when there's $50-75 million in the win pool...

I have it on good word that the Queen of England is pondering the possibility of making a $15 million bet on Recapturetheglory - however, she might call a last second audible and just opt to make an 850K exacta wheel with him on top of the all button.

Did Ten Most Wanted really go off at 6/1? And SNS at 5/1? LOL!
Maybe you are right and Recapture the Glory will go off closer to 10/1.
Hes a very nice horse, just not for this particular race.

You guys are right. The real money will come from those guys you see cashing in bottles and cans to finance their next trip to the OTB, or those guys who dont pay any bills but yet have to hock their ipods to make their next bet. They are the big bettors who sway the odds.

You're sorely underestimating the amount of stupid money in the pools on Derby day.

Just remember this... Charles Cella bet a HALF MILLION DOLLARS on Smarty Jones to win the Derby when he was in line to cash the $5 million bonus for sweeping the Arkansas series & the KD, because he had only insured 1/2 of the prize, and SJ still went off at 4.10-1. Now THAT'S a big bet!

Send her my way... I'll book the bet

Ben Affleck moving the Derby pool is is the funniest thing I have ever read on this site. Well done.