The start was real bad, but it wasn't the only problem. He got back into the action a little too quicky and had to be checked for some time for lack of room. being down on the inside I don't think was the best position for this big colt.

No, the difference is that I MADE money on Circular Quay winning because he was coupled with Scat Daddy that day.....CLEARLY different motive than Watchmaker's story and situation...

By the same token then everything you are saying about Scat Daddy represents a serious conflict of interest.

Agreed....................

He is a come-from-behinder. He doesn't have sprint speed. That's why he made his debut in a one mile race. This horse is clearly a router. Running in a one-turn race against horses with sprint-speed, I would certainly call him a come-from-behinder. He was running against horses with :44 and change speed. I don't think they wanted to be up there going head and head with the Lukas horse any way.

Plenty actually. People bet him down to that level based on perceived "talent" up to and not including his pedigree, trainer, works, races, who he raced, etc. Based on that, people set this talent level of this horse at 8-5 over a horse who has more talent overall in Scat Daddy.

No Biz will probably be a decent horse, I dont think many people dispute that notion. Stars do get beaten at 8-5. Stars win at 5-2 as well. Fact of the matter is, we are dealing with babies and as soon as they are "stars" they are long forgotten sometimes. Not saying this will happen to either of them, but who the hell knows?

Also, the wagering level settled on by the public DOES represent the star quality of a horse. In fact, it makes a great point. We are WAY too quick to appoint stardom on these animals. For weeks now, since No Biz won his maiden, he has been the next star...well as is the situation many teams, the hype doesnt match up, at least right now. Who knows, maybe it will (personally, I say no). Looking at the facts, No Biz beat a horse from Pletcher's barn, maybe D Wayne, not 100% sure (and its too late to look up) who will probably be toiling in the fall mid level claimers at Churchill. That doesnt present star to me.

But, it does to some...and hell, I hope it does more often, and then my horse sits at 5-2 and is the clear class of the race. *Cash register sound*

Good arguments though.

How is 5/2 ever a good price in a two year old race? Was Awesome Ashley a good bet at 5/2 in the Frizette?

These are TWO YEAR OLDS... anything can happen, and it usually does. You better believe 5/2 on Scat Daddy will be a tremendous UNDERLAY in the BC Juvy (and I actually think he's a decent horse.)

Those that bet down Nobiz to 8/5 were probably taking the worst of it, however considering he was 10 lengths faster than the rest of the field in his last start and the 2nd start of a horse's career is nearly always his/her biggest improvement, I can understand the favoritism. He had to run back to his last race to win, which is a reasonable assertation for an 8/5 favorite... he regressed about 3 lengths (probably the amount he lost at the start). If the public assessed his probability of winning properly, he was a 40% chance to win. Seems reasonable to me on the limited data available with this group. Scat Daddy was 5/2 not because he wasn't a quality runner but because he was uproven at a mile and didn't look to care for more distance in the Hopeful. If he was 8/5 instead of 5/2, we would be calling HIM an underlay.

End result, anyone who had the other 3 in the NTRA pick 4 and didn't use both in this race in equal amounts is an idiot (namely, me.)

The horse ran a :45 3/5 half in his debut, and because he was at the back of the pack early (DUE TO THE BAD START) in The Champagne, you think he's a come-from-behinder.

I guess the horses with sprint speed stayed in the barn, because fractions of :24 and :47 4/5 certainly aren't fractions I see in many sprint races.

And just because they didn't want him going eye-to-eye with Pegasus Wind means he's a come-from-behinder? I guess you'd have to define come-from-behinder for me then, because I say he's a stalker who likes to be 2-3 lengths off the lead. That could be wrong, but so far, there's more evidence in my favor than in yours.

I'm not the one writing a feature story behind one of the biggest industry trades (DRF) either.....I ALWAYS try to present the facts in my articles, and if I have an opinion, I state it as an opinion and not like its the gospel and we have to eat it like Mike does....

Mike's job is to write opinion pieces, for DRF, and that is exactly what he did. He also presented the facts as he saw them...also his job.

I asked "what do the odds have to do with his talent?"

I didn't ask "what do the odds have to do with his perceived talent or what the public thinks his talent level is?"

The public doesn't decide how fast a horse is. The public decides how fast they think a horse is. Therefore, a horse's odds have NOTHING to do with how fast that horse actually is.

He won by a length. I think that's a relatively easy win.

I just watched the race one more time. I think that Nobiz had a little more of an excuse than I originally thought, especially consdiering that this was only his second career start. For a horse with no experience, it was a pretty eventful trip. I wouldn't say that he should have necessarily won, but I will say that he probaly learned from the experience and should move forward.

I didn't mean that he wants to come from 10 back. I would agree with you that he is a stalker. I just meant that I wouldn't call him a speed horse, especially in a race where there are horses with sprint speed.

On paper, it looked like there was alot of speed in the race and I would have figured that NoBiz would be about 4-6 lengths behind. As slow as the fractions ended up being run, he could have been right there early.