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-   -   10/30 Notes: Rumors have Gio Ponti leaning to lawn (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=39146)

ateamstupid 11-03-2010 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 714473)
Be careful what you wish for.

As a son of Tale of the Cat, I've always thought that a mile is Gio Ponti's best distance. After he won the Kilroe Mile last year (defeating eventual Woodbine Mile heroine Ventura), and in the absence of top mile races here, Clement took a chance that he could get 10F in the Manhattan against a relatively weak group, and he succeeded. They then became committed to a "distance" (by US standards) campaign with the horse.

His recent win in the Shadwell Mile was very impressive; he'll get plenty of pace with Sidney's Candy and Get Stormy in the field; and he has perhaps the best turf rider in Dominguez aboard. Compared to the likes of a past-his-prime Kip Deville and Whatsthescript (2008) and Cowboy Cal and Courageous Cat (2009), Gio Pinti will certainly present the most formidable American opponent that Goldikova has faced in her three Breeders' Cup tries.
Come on. He's the best of a dreadful group of U.S. turf horses. His Shadwell wasn't very impressive, it was fine. He'd have to put in an easy lifetime best to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy and if he's under 10-1, that's a bad bet.

hockey2315 11-03-2010 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715564)
Come on. He's the best of a dreadful group of U.S. turf horses. His Shadwell wasn't very impressive, it was fine. He'd have to put in an easy lifetime best to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy and if he's under 10-1, that's a bad bet.
Really?

ateamstupid 11-03-2010 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715565)
Really?
What the hell was so impressive about it? He beat freaking Society's Chairman by a length and ran slower than Proviso.

hockey2315 11-03-2010 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715571)
What the hell was so impressive about it? He beat freaking Society's Chairman by a length and ran slower than Proviso.
Maybe your opinion of Gio stems in part from your feelings about Proviso. . . I don't share your view of her. Gio couldn't really have done it any easier and got another overconfident ride from Ramon. You know the margin doesn't matter there - he came home extremely quick and got up comfortably.

ateamstupid 11-03-2010 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715578)
Maybe your opinion of Gio stems in part from your feelings about Proviso. . . I don't share your view of her. Gio couldn't really have done it any easier and got another overconfident ride from Ramon. You know the margin doesn't matter there - he came home extremely quick and got up comfortably.
They're both the best of bad divisions and are outclassed by Goldikova and Paco Boy. You don't agree with this?

blackthroatedwind 11-03-2010 10:50 AM
I thought Gio Ponti's win at Keeneland was decidedly mediocre.

hockey2315 11-03-2010 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715581)
They're both the best of bad divisions and are outclassed by Goldikova and Paco Boy. You don't agree with this?
I don't really see the point in using Paco Boy or boxing those two like you seem to want to - Goldikova has already asserted her superiority over him. I'll use Goldi and protect with Gio and Proviso in case she gets sucked up into the pace.

ateamstupid 11-03-2010 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715584)
I don't really see the point in using Paco Boy or boxing those two like you seem to want to - Goldikova has already asserted her superiority over him. I'll use Goldi and protect with Gio and Proviso in case she gets sucked up into the pace.
Please. He's hardly getting trounced by her. He's lost by two necks and a half-length and in my book that makes him a hell of a lot more likely to win this than Gio Ponti or Proviso.

blackthroatedwind 11-03-2010 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715586)
Please. He's hardly getting trounced by her. He's lost by two necks and a half-length and in my book that makes him a hell of a lot more likely to win this than Gio Ponti or Proviso.
Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.

Scav 11-03-2010 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715588)
Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.
Exactly

hockey2315 11-03-2010 11:03 AM
Isn't she better on firm turf? We know she can ship. . . We have no idea if he can ship and no reason to believe he'll improve on firm turf. It's not like he's lighting things up when he's not facing her. His last win came over the very mediocre Ouqba and the Lord Shanakill, who's better at 7f. His last win before that came over Pressing, who's like a German and Turkish Group 1 horse. I guess I could use Paco Boy as a last resort w/ some of my longer priced stuff so I don't get knocked out of the late Pk4 in the first leg, but to treat them as equals just because she's barely beating him seems like a stretch.

ateamstupid 11-03-2010 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715588)
Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.
Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne. Affirmed/Alydar would be the analogy I'd make too though.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

RockHardTen1985 11-03-2010 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715595)
Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.
Paco Boy cant beat her, Id rather take a chance with Get Stormy, Sidneys Candy stealing.... One of them quits, stumbles whatever the other gets brave. Or Proviso then Paco Boy who has proven MANY TIMES, HE CANT BEAT HER. I would rather give someone else a chance at 4-10x the price.

blackthroatedwind 11-03-2010 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715595)
Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.
I don't agree with a lot of this. I agree that Gio Ponti and, especially, Proviso are unlikely to beat her. I would be more worried about a relative unknown like Sidney's Candy wiring the field.

I don't feel he's a major win candidate but I'm not completely against the Usual QT.

ateamstupid 11-03-2010 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715600)
I don't agree with a lot of this. I agree that Gio Ponti and, especially, Proviso are unlikely to beat her. I would be more worried about a relative unknown like Sidney's Candy wiring the field.

I don't feel he's a major win candidate but I'm not completely against the Usual QT.
I thought he ran the better race than Court Vision at Woodbine, so yeah, he's not impossible. I take it you're singling Goldikova then?

Scav 11-03-2010 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715600)
I don't agree with a lot of this. I agree that Gio Ponti and, especially, Proviso are unlikely to beat her. I would be more worried about a relative unknown like Sidney's Candy wiring the field.

I don't feel he's a major win candidate but I'm not completely against the Usual QT.
FWIW, I thought Sidney's Candy work look horrible over the turf at Churchill. I wasn't on The Usual Q.T until someone I respect called me and said some well regarded Cali people were pushing him pretty heavy. An underneath candidate for me.

hockey2315 11-03-2010 11:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715595)
Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne. Affirmed/Alydar would be the analogy I'd make too though.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.
You really think he had a harder trip than she did in the Foret? She was up close to what seems like a lively enough pace while he was doing the usual Euro thing, drafting behind horses in the two path (big deal). She gave up the lead, and then took it right back pretty easily. He had every chance to outkick her.

I understand what you're saying and obviously just disagree about how good he is and how good the Americans are. We both think she's a very likely winner.

hockey2315 11-03-2010 11:13 AM
If Sidney's Candy got his prep in and validated his last performance, I'd like him a lot. . . now I don't trust him at all.

RockHardTen1985 11-03-2010 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav (Post 715607)
FWIW, I thought Sidney's Candy work look horrible over the turf at Churchill. I wasn't on The Usual Q.T until someone I respect called me and said some well regarded Cali people were pushing him pretty heavy. An underneath candidate for me.
Get Stormy is not impossible IMO. DRF is reporting Sidneys Candy is not working well, not finishing well. He runs off early, stops... Stormy takes over... He could get brave at over 20-1. Why is it unreasonable to think a horse like Sidneys Candy might just run like **** off this layoff vs this type?

hockey2315 11-03-2010 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 715614)
Get Stormy is not impossible IMO. DRF is reporting Sidneys Candy is not working well, not finishing well. He runs off early, stops... Stormy takes over... He could get brave at over 20-1. Why is it unreasonable to think a horse like Sidneys Candy might just run like **** off this layoff vs this type?
I'm a fan of Get Stormy, but he has 0 shot in this race. He spits the bit when he doesn't get things his own way.


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