I started this thread to ask people what they liked about this horse. I think he's shaping up as a Saarlandesque underlay and have serious reservations about him making an impact on this race at any point in time.

Assuming that he's going to rate is dangerous. Assuming that he's going to get the lead is even more dangerous. Assuming that he's going to be able to endure a very wide trip a la Big Brown and still be victorious is crazy in my opinion.

I find his ability to be effective from off the pace non-existent and think that everyone being dazzled by his fast 3rd quarter of the SA Derby is ignoring the fact that he walked on the lead prior to that point.

I'm a big boy and if I'm wrong it won't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last.

NT

I think he'll run Gayego's Kentucky Derby.

I thought you only eat crow if you're wrong , is what I was referring to. You would be correct if he loses.

LOL, didn't even realize that. Yes, I'll eat crow if he wins.

The biggest point is that he likely is not going to be at the price necessary to make the leaps of faith required. If he is underlaid, then not betting him is the right decision, regardless of how the race actually turns out. You put the money in when you have equity offered to you, and you don't when it isn't.

I don't care for him much myself but 10-1 will be double his track odds IMO.
If I can get another price like that on LAL I'll have $80 to throw elsewhere and at worst break even if either of the two faves win.

He has had two easy trips in a row and the biggest mystery to me is how he was able to get away with the slow fractions in the Felipe. The sprints that day were much faster than Lewis day when American Lion was pressing a 47 half mile. A month later AL isn't within a length in 48 2/5.

I think this horse was actually quite impressive in the SA Derby. He stumbled out of the gate and, typically, when a speed horse does that it sometimes immediate either rushes or is rushed to the front. Neither happened here: SC took the lead simply because nothing else was fast enough or wanted it. As for the fast 3rd quarter, he did it in hand, wasn't even asked, while the others were all out to try to keep up, let alone cut into his lead. Which makes the reference to the slow early pace meaningless; if the pace was so slow early why couldn't the chasers close the gap on a horse that was, essentially, cruising?

To me, the Derby is just another race --- one of 20 or 30 that I'll play on Saturday. Going to play my usual 2 number exotic and go on with it. I'm using SC because I think he's the best horse in the race. Will he be value? It depends on how you look at it. If you don't think much of LaL and that one is the chalk, with SC being 2nd choice, then he's value. He's value because there's really nothing in the race. SC doesn't have to be a super horse to win. Talamo only needs to work out an efficient trip for him -- one which doesn't contribute to the race collapsing.

If I think that the race will collapse, then I need to play MULTIPLE numbers. This is really not the way to make money in the long run.