that's what is happening. comparing his fractions to GZ as tho it fastens credibility onto the horse.

he freaked in the slop. maybe someday he'll get lucky and have another sloppy track and freak again. i don't care how fast he ran at sunland, or that he was the 2 yo champ in canada-big deal. no one picked it up before saturday, so why is it a big deal now.

some things are unexplainable-like julia robers marrying lyle lovett. sometimes stuff happens for no damn reason.

now, if he wins again. on a fast track. vs horses that also run...then maybe there's more to the story.

First, he wasn't part of the pace in the Sunland Derby. Watch the race. The two horses in that race who led through the first half finished 11th and 12th, respectively. He was no more a part of the pace as Kelly Leak was.

Secondly, I don't even know where to begin on this idea that just because a horse may have run a 45-ish 4f at an entirely different part of a completely different race that the horse can just automatically take that half mile number and just magically apply it to a the stretch run of the motherf-ing Kentucky Derby.

Seriously, dude, stop looking for the answers to the Derby in the PP's. They're not there. Honestly. Everybody else is just as fooled as you are.

Danzig, I'm not trying to give the horse credibility, but I am pointing out just how insanely quick that last half mile is for a Derby winner, regardless of the track conditions. Remember how great Barbaro looked back in 2006? Mine(d) that Bird beat his last half by something like a full second.

The bottom line is that, barring injury, this colts legacy will play out over time and most of all of us can agree this race will not define his career. It could be the icing on the cake or just a fluke, however the result of this race was simply explainable in that the horse never had a decent jock on his back in the past and extreme tactics were used that were not used before with the horse. Regardless, MTB did do the running and won the race.

slot - what happens in the Preakness , if he can pair up like 3 yrs old do , someone is going to have to jump up to beat him no?

Of course. That makes him qualify as a neat horse...not a Kentucky Derby winner. There are times a horse wins four straight $10,000 starter allowances on the grass with Beyers in the 80s...it doesn't mean he should be able to go romp in the Arlington Million.

Sure, his Canadian form made him a cool little horse, but trying to say that it somehow validates what happened Saturday is ludicrous.

i know it doesnt qualify him as a derby winner... but at the end of the day, that 10,000 starter allow horse did wind up in the Arlington Million winners circle.

so true, the speed figure fools never accept outcomes like these. it proves their goofy numbers to be crap. a horse is an athlete, not a machine. i wish numbers could be assigned to performances and tell the future of a horses next peformance. it just does not work that way. the fig's will give winners from time to time but its not as reliable as all the jokers selling them want you to think. this is the beauty of horse racing, the track was crap, two main contenders did not even race and a couple logical horses were "done" when the gate opened. not to mention the winner loved the slop and ran like hes never run before and may never again. can't put a number on that, don't even try. in all sports efforts at times defy logic, thats why the game is played. if everyone knew who was going to win. who would really care ? the fact is no one knows and mathematics does not really apply.

i don't know about this thread other then the guy that was trying to explain this horses final half. but, i've read beyers crap after he got burned at GP. believe me people are looking at these numbers and crying. they just don't work that good from track to track or suface to surface. if they did people would be winning all the time and it would not be gambling. i'll look at them but by no means is that the only reason to bet a horse. if it were the highest fig would win alot more than it does. some look at the numbers religiously which is ridiculous. any horse can win, with the right set-up and effort. a number can't tell you that. using your imagination though might. if every 6-5 shot with highest number won , i would hate racing.

Didn't War Emblem have the highest Beyer going into the 2002 Derby? And he paid $43.00 to win, go figure.

I want to punch myself in the nads for continuing to post on this thread, but I'm not talking about figures or anything else, I am just discussing the insanity that was Mine that Bird's closing speed on Saturday.

well what can you attribute it to? surely it has to be something? it just can't be one of those unexplained events

15 horses didn't handle the mud. He handled it better than the other 3 who did.

what about the last 4 f in 47and change - 2nd fastest time in ky derby history?

I don't know that it was the second fastest in KD history. That might be extrapolating.

He was on the best part of the track.

but he was on the inside the whole way no?

um yes. but he wasnt asked to run except the final half mile

Shirley you have to know that.

yes - he didn't get into him until the last 4f's or so no?