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2Hot4TV 03-15-2008 05:31 PM
It was rumored this morning that War Pass was not feeling well a few days this week. Looks like that was true. War Pass didn't run alick today and I am glad that I'm not holding a future bet with his name on it.

Travis Stone 03-15-2008 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
Again, toss the race.
What is all this toss the race stuff? I'll never understand it.

War Pass did not get an ideal trip from the start today and we learned something about him. If you toss the race, you are completely ignoring the race, and therefore assuming if anything from today's race resurfaces, whether it be trip, pace, break etc., you ignore it, which is foolish.

justindew 03-15-2008 05:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddthetide
i'm with you. he showed NO guts today at all. he'll never stand up to the bump and grind in a 20 horse field.
Horses with his running style are immune to the size of the field. If he breaks, it all comes down to whether or not anyone goes with him and whether or not he can last. If he can go 3/4s in under 1:11 and still be around a half-mile later, it doesn't matter if there are 5 or 50 horses behind him.

justindew 03-15-2008 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
What is all this toss the race stuff? I'll never understand it.

War Pass did not get an ideal trip from the start today and we learned something about him. If you toss the race, you are completely ignoring the race, and therefore assuming if anything from today's race resurfaces, whether it be trip, pace, break etc., you ignore it, which is foolish.
We didn't learn anything. Are you really gonna start handicapping races based on who MIGHT get bumped at the start?

declansharbor 03-15-2008 05:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bid
Declan, if a confirmed front runner whos never been behind a horse in his life misses the break what do you think the plan is? You know you have a horse going to the Derby, would you A) Rush him up and bottom him out trying to win B) Put him between horses and let him get some education C) Just make sure he gets home safe and live to fight another day.

It has nothing to do with how good he is. He lays over that bunch anytime he breaks clean.
He had ample opportunity to split the foes around the first turn. Good front-running horses overcome bad breaks all the time.

Now I admit, noone really knows what Zito had planned for him today. For all we know, he could have instructed the pilot to sit right off of the lead, and pounce on the backstretch.

It would be foolish to strain a horse that already has the graded earnings to make the KD gate. But it's also foolish to think that he will have the dream setup in a race like the KD. Adversity faced him and beat him. What lies in the cards for him in future races remains to be seen. Hopefully, he came out of it okay, so that we will have the chance to bump this thread at a later date and you say "I told you so" to me.

milliam 03-15-2008 05:40 PM
Somebody revive Beyer and Vietch. Slew can rest easy

Travis Stone 03-15-2008 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
We didn't learn anything. Are you really gonna start handicapping races based on who MIGHT get bumped at the start?
No, because they don't publish that information, but I'll call the folks I know at Equibase and ask them to. :rolleyes:

Bumped or not, it's clear War Pass is not the same horse when he's free and clear on the lead. In the Kentucky Derby, when there is a real likely chance a stretch-out sprinter such as Keyed Entry or Brancusi or Songandaprayer joins the early mix, War Pass figures to have more trouble making the lead, therefore hindering his chances.

If he was sick/hurt today, it becomes a different story. So until then, I'm going upon what I learned in the race today.

jpops757 03-15-2008 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
it happens. coast guard going to be busy picking up all those bridge jumpers.
he ran last week

justindew 03-15-2008 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
No, because they don't publish that information, but I'll call the folks I know at Equibase and ask them to. :rolleyes:

Bumped or not, it's clear War Pass is not the same horse when he's free and clear on the lead. In the Kentucky Derby, when there is a real likely chance a stretch-out sprinter such as Keyed Entry or Brancusi or Songandaprayer joins the early mix, War Pass figures to have more trouble making the lead, therefore hindering his chances.

If he was sick/hurt today, it becomes a different story. So until then, I'm going upon what I learned in the race today.
And I'm saying that all you possibly could have learned is that if War Pass gets slammed at the break in the Debry, he won't win. And I would have conceeded that point all along.

kentuckyrosesinmay 03-15-2008 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by milliam
Somebody revive Beyer and Vietch. Slew can rest easy
They compared him to Seattle Slew too? OMG.

SentToStud 03-15-2008 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
Horses with his running style are immune to the size of the field. If he breaks, it all comes down to whether or not anyone goes with him and whether or not he can last. If he can go 3/4s in under 1:11 and still be around a half-mile later, it doesn't matter if there are 5 or 50 horses behind him.
I bet against him today (Atoned) because, among other reasons, I thought he was susceptible to being between other speeds early today. The scenario you described for him running his race is pretty typical for any speedball. It's easy to pile on (1/9 horse with $600k in show bet losses) but I won't cause I like speed horses. But at a short price, he cannot be bet.

The Bid 03-15-2008 05:46 PM
You dont rate horses like WP, the instructions were dont get dirty and we will see you in the winners circle

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-15-2008 05:47 PM
skip away ..nuff said....

SentToStud 03-15-2008 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor[B
]He had ample opportunity to split the foes around the first turn. Good front-running horses overcome bad breaks all the time.[/b]

Now I admit, noone really knows what Zito had planned for him today. For all we know, he could have instructed the pilot to sit right off of the lead, and pounce on the backstretch.

It would be foolish to strain a horse that already has the graded earnings to make the KD gate. But it's also foolish to think that he will have the dream setup in a race like the KD. Adversity faced him and beat him. What lies in the cards for him in future races remains to be seen. Hopefully, he came out of it okay, so that we will have the chance to bump this thread at a later date and you say "I told you so" to me.
Yes, exactly. The highlighted as well as the rest.

And I like the horse too. And hope he comes out fine.

ateamstupid 03-15-2008 05:48 PM
LOL @ the excuse machine churning right along, despite the fact that the horse was in striking position until the far turn, where he was asked and responded with a breathtaking backwards dash.

Danzig 03-15-2008 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpops757
he ran last week

lol

i meant THE Coast Guard, not the horse!

justindew 03-15-2008 05:51 PM
War Pass is clearly being held to a higher standard than is appropriate. Handicappers toss entire efforts a million times a day based on things exactly like what happened to War Pass.

Travis Stone 03-15-2008 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
And I'm saying that all you possibly could have learned is that if War Pass gets slammed at the break in the Debry, he won't win. And I would have conceeded that point all along.
That's funny. You're totally missing the point. War Pass did not win today, if we agree on that, we're making progress. War Pass did not get ideal conditions today. Less than ideal conditions for any horse can spell loss, which happened today. To assume such situations occur only when a horse is bumped at the gate is handicapping suicide. Furthermore, even though he did not get away cleanly, he still found himself in a good spot tracking the speed. Yes, he was wide, but wide horses win all day long at Tampa. When it came time to run, he didn't fire.

I learned he's not a super horse. Still a good horse? You bet. But he's not in his own world, with everyone else living in it.

Travis Stone 03-15-2008 05:54 PM
There is a major difference between "tossing" a race and "forgiving" a race. I think the former is bogus with the exception of extreme scenarios. The latter applies on a daily basis.

The Bid 03-15-2008 05:56 PM
Travis, taking todays race out of the mix how many horses had been inside a length of WP at any point of call in a race?

Suicide is thinking this horse doesnt win by open lengths if hes allowed to break clean


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