i didn't realize the stats for the outside going 9f there was so abysmal.

to answer your question though, i feel that he's so much better by watching him run. his last race was so much more impressive than anything i've seen in this crop so far (minus war pass).

that might not be a logical explanation to you, but i'm pretty decent at this sort of thing. he was just extremely visually impressive. i like his stride and his way of going, he seems to have more than enough stamina, and as of his last race, has a pretty nice turn of foot.

Apparantly Adriano has some hidden race that only the poster Indian Charlie has seen. Apparently he possesses some sort of ability that doesn't show in his pps. Surely none of his races last year were anything to write home about. Not bad, but certainly nothing spectacular, and probably worse than just about any race the rest of the field has run. And, then there's his race this year, where he sat a perfect trip behind a pace that collapsed so badly that a horse as bad as the second finisher, Ablazewithspirit, was even able to give the appearance of being decent. In case, like Indian Charlie, you're not familiar with Ablazewithspirit, he broke his maiden on the turf in a $40K maiden claimer in his previous start. The third finisher, who also benefited from the collapsing pace, lost to Celestial Comet by a like amount in his next start. I suppose I should call Bruce Lunsford and tell him to put that one on the TC trail as well.

So, all Adriano has to do to win this race is.....overcome post 12 and improve dramatically on the dirt. At 100-1 I'm not even sure he's a good bet.

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

No but there may be a Great Point. Or about 8 of them.

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

Worth noting that Barbaro won the Florida Derby from post 10 so Adriano would actually have to do more than Barbaro did to win from 12. Of course scratches could alter things considerably with two questionable Zayat horses in the field.

Why do you think Cool Coal Man looks awful? In my opinion he seems to be steadily improving and looks plenty competitive with these colts at this point.

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

In my opinion he is likely to be the most overbet horse in the race.
Betting a colt with a sprinter's pedigree stretching out to 9f and stepping way up in class after an off-the-pace score going 8f is not usually a smart move as far as I am concerned.
Perhaps he is really just that good and wins, but as far as betting goes, I am looking elsewhere.

I'm not really an angle handicapper, but that $.19 ROI on 2nd starters for Reade Baker is something else. I don't remember seeing a number that low in a graded race.

Now you're gettin' it!

kentucky bear has such a slim chance of being anything more than an allowance horse. Baker is known for send his 1st timers out in mid-season shape, and most of them are at a peak and good for maybe a maiden and an allowance. Kb drew into such a weak maiden field and it was pretty hard to tell if he really galloped out as well as it appeared or the field was that bad.

Plenty of better allowance horses entered like Cool Coal Man, Elysium Fields or even Golden spikes.

Can't see Make the Point or Adriano getting the trip they need, but they are decent horses. Worth reviewing their performances after the race with the track config in mind. You get 11 seconds to turn1.

For the sake of the division, like to see Court Vision, Anak Nakal, Monba, or Adriano run a big race. Not in love with Gomez on CV, although if Go-Go gives his good stuff their styles mesh well and could win it on the far turn.

Obviously I'm not privy to the thoughts of the trainer and owner.What I meant is do you want this horse to run a race like Read The Footnotes and Second of June in the 04 FOY? It was a race that probably had adverse effects on each horse. I'm guessing that they just want to put a race into the horse and if they win that's great. However the ultimate goal being that he runs well and comes out of the race in good shape.

Or like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday last year at Tamp....oh wait, nevermind.

You might be correct.

I'm going to go with Cool Coal Man, might be my only bet of the day.

It will be interesting to see what the odds look like at post-time for this one.
Personally, I like Anak Nakal....especially if he is in the 6/1 range.