Then maybe they automatically consider a Grade II more worthy even though in this case it was not.

Well this is what Beyers are supposed to help with in the first place.

But Im going to tell you, even though I personally was more impressed with Cobalt Blue than Curlin (and I am in the minority) I thought the BSF's woud be something like Cobalt Blue 92, Curlin 100.

IMO there's no comparison. Cobalt Blue was lone speed setting a soft pace in a small field over the SA dragstrip. Curlin was wide on both turns and blew the Rebel field away, and still wasn't 100% minding his manners in the stretch. If he had run straight at GP, he'd probably have won by 22 lengths. As for Cobalt Blue, I was much more impressed with Air Commander in that race. He was wide and definitely hurt by the slow pace. I would not be surprised if come December, Curlin was the best 3YO of this crop.

I won't be betting Curlin to win the Derby just like I didn't bet Showing Up to win last year's Derby after three career starts. Horses absolutely need more seasoning in a 20 horse field than Curlin will have. This isn't an angle like dosage or the BC juvenile jinx; this is an angle based on the fact that it takes more than three races to truly prepare a horse for a 20 horse field in May of his or her 3YO season.

See Steve Haskin's comments in his latest "Derby Trail" column on Bloodhorse:



Times certainly are changing. Here we are wondering if Ravel can become the first horse since 1918 to win the Derby off only four career starts, and we’ve got Curlin, who, if he turns in another big performance in the Arkansas Derby (gr. II), no doubt will attempt it off only three career starts, which has only been accomplished by Regret in 1915. He’ll also try to become the first horse since 1882 to win the Derby without having started as a 2-year-old.

Needless to say, the odds are against Curlin.

And the BSF say a virtual tie. Thats what I dont get. I thought they would be very diff. in favor of Curlin even though I personally like Cobalt blue more.

BSFs have notthing to do with pace scenario, running style, etc. . . They deal with final times, speed of the surface, and par times. . .