Flower ran a better race last year in the BCC than Bern did. No doubt about that in my mind. The fact that he didn't go on at age four doesn't change what he did at age three. YOu can't use his four year old year as a basis to change what he did in the Classic.
Bern beat up on bad or injured horses with no traffic in small fields and more importantly what I saw as very slow pace figures, and his two biggest victories came when his main rivals broke down or were injured. I will say that perhaps if he had a gut wrencher prior to the BC that he may not have run better than he did and perhaps had he been allowed to race at age 4, he would have joined the elite.
But I really didn't like the way he reacted when Invasor came to him, and I think he had a great trip getting first run at the speed while making a turn move that is usually a successful knockout punch in many situations.
Turns are hard on some horses to truly accelerate on, and usually if someone makes a big turn move the competition is screwed because they have to straighten away in the lane before they can get a run on the leader who has already assumed an advantage with both the lead and a full head of steam.
Invasor's ears flipped forward when he came to Bern, and he was having a ball out there.
Perhaps its his humble beginnings in South America, perhaps its his non flashy pedigree, perhaps its because his trainer hadn't been considered a big race trainer prior to this year, but for whatever reason people are finding it hard to accept that he won, and much more impressively than the winning margin would indicate.

Can't we get back to talking about how much Scat Daddy sucks?

I still think he was a better horse than Ghostzapper but we only got to see half of the show, as he projected to be a better 4-year-old with his pedigree and a little more seasoning. And yes, I avoided the sharks in the water like you who get off on trying to prove people wrong. Anyone who can really analyze a race whose opinions I value have all agreed that the horse didn't fire his best shot and still only got beat a length....far more nice horses didn't fire thier best shots in the race and still got beat a lot worse in the race....

Oh, and he cruised by a loose Wanderin Boy with ease last out and that horse is faster than Brother Derek FYI.....You should know that being a Zito fanatic...

Its a good thing you didn't take me up on the handicap-off last weekend as you had better done exceptionally well to win that one.....(since you had SO much to lose :rolleyes: )

I couldn't disagree more.
Invasor's "cough" made it very hard to have Invasor ready to race. 3 months and a few days layoff is the longest layoff in the history of the BCC for a winner. Extremely hard for any horse to run that well off that kinda layoff. Fresh is one thing, but 3 months goes beyond fresh and edges into too much time off.
Bern got his perfect prep, and had no excuses not to be top notch.
If they raced again in a month all it would do would increase the margin of victory by Invasor as he would be totally fit and tight. Theres only so much you can simulate and do in the mornings, and he still managed to grab him easily.
No shame in running 2nd to a horse like that.

Mike, you know as well as I do that I liked Invasor better than Bernardini in the classic (as we discussed), but I won't take it away from Bernardini that he is a much better horse than I thought originally. Is he the greatest horse of all time? Of course not, but I do think he would have had a great shot of proving to be one of the top horses next year.

He'll be off the triple crown trail by march. His two year old campaign was brutal.

its on now....and yes scat daddy isnt that great...

Your funny hooves! And yes, Scat Daddy isn't that great and I agree with Pillow Pants, no way is he around for the derby.

<<<Blackthroatedwind typing in progress>>>

wrong...he looked very well in his stall on jcgc day..what about his race vs sun king not exactly a monster effort...

Sure he will be around for the Derby (unless he gets hurt). Look who owns him--you think they are going to pass the Derby. They already have enough graded earnings. Pletcher and Tabor have two big of egos not to run this horse in the Derby. If he is healthy, he is running.

Agree with everything you just said. Hes better than I thought he was. He definitely would have been great at age four. But hes no Invasor.
Amazing that the longest layoff in BCC history by far preceding a win by a horse in the race gets so little mention. Fresh? Well in a sprint race where they only have to be fit enough to go 6f perhaps it could be construed as an advantage to have three months off.
But a mile and a quarter is still a mile and a quarter, and no way could Invasor have been as tight as he would have been had he not "coughed" prior to the JCGC. He was the one who was at the disadvantge, not Bern.

You will never get it Joel, as you are so caught up in taking things personally, that you will never see what is really going on. You earned a coward's reputation because you constantly patted yourself on the back when right, your behavoir after the Champagne was appalling, and then scurried off when wrong. NOBODY knocks those who come back contrite and discuss things objectively. However, considering your past exploits, ignoring all the BC results, and then claiming " the real horses didn't show up " days later as though THAT is an intelligent dissection of the race just isn't going to suffice.

And then you make some silly Wanderin' boy-Zito reference as though ANYBODY ever believed or suggested Wanderin' Boy was in his league. That is what....a pathetic attempt to get my goat? Didn't work. Stick to the REAL issue. If you think Wanderin' Boy is a " faster horse " than Brother Derek then your opinion is even worse than I thought.

As for your final paragraph....you don't get anything do you. You have a lot to prove....not me.

No need to bait Joel... when are you going to Kee Nov?

Why is that? Because Sun King didn't go on? I've always said on here that I think that school of thought is completely invalid, not just in this case. You can't use races going forward to change an effort and its validity in the past. Sun King ran the race of his career that day and it was a corker. The fact that he didn't repeat it doesn't change what he did anymore than what Flower Alley did miserably this year changes his great race last year in the BCC.
Was Sun King great? No. But he showed flashes of greatness in his career and on Whitney Day ran the race of his life.

BTW, I think the earnings picture is going to be very interesting for the Derby next year. With the BC Juvenile purse being $2 million it puts the top four in. Now the Delta Jackpot is a G3 so that $1 million race will get 2-3 horses in. The Blue Grass could put some unexpected horses in the race if turfy 3yos point there. Not to mention that any of the top three fillies from the BC Juv Fillies would have enough earnings if they wanted to run (God I hope not). I have a feeling we could see a horse with right around $200,000 in graded stakes earnings get shut out of the field this year.

well mike again your thinking that invasor was the better horse from the get go is a joke ..if you where in keirens shoes would you wait till the big prize and a larger field or take your shot at the jcgc..with 4 horses...again im listeneing...keep in mind you got your tips from the jiffy lube ...

OK maybe I should have said "HE SHOULDN'T BE AROUND FOR THE DERBY"

Nah, nothing to prove to anyone....I have what I want in this game and I am very satisfied. I'd match my knowledge, instincts and horsemanship with yours ANYDAY of the week and I am significantly younger.....whats there to prove to a guy like you who is scared to put his money where his mouth is?....nada....just keep chirping and blowing hard about your percieved credability...

The fact is that I've still yet to meet people who have even heard of you, which says a lot to me....

No Hooves, you don't get it. I don't think he "passed" the JCGC, they wanted to run.

It certainly says a lot about the people you have met.

And, frankly, who cares?

ok... i dont think so...as it turns out they won so congrats to them..

LMAO!!! Good lord, I haven't laughed all week... but that was hilarious. :D

I don't...you were the one who ridiculously thought you were so reknowned in the industry that last week you said that "you had so much to lose and nothing to gain" by a friendly handicap-off....please :rolleyes:

You're probably right....I don't know anyone important in this game......

I couldnt agree more. The Delta Jackpot being a Graded Race is HUGE. I will be real interested to see if that race produces any Derby horses. I love that it finally got a Graded status. I also will be wondering what major trainers are going to put their 2nd string in that race.

now that there is funny i don't care who you are.

That is interesting.

Good thing for John Ward he doesn't have any TC contendors this year.

Joel, this is equivalent to saying that I value the opinions of all the people who agree with me and the ones who don't agree with me don't really know how to analyze races. It doesn't prove anything other than the fact that you have tuned out a lot of very knowledgable people.

You're delusional if you really think he was better than Ghostzapper.
Do I really need to match their credentials? No... but I will.

Bernardini:
G3 at 8F, G2 at 9F, G1 at 9.5F, 2 G1's at 10F+ a second in the world's biggest dirt race. Speed figures were good, not legendary.

Ghostzapper:
G1 at 6.5F, G2 at 7F, G1 at 8F (the most important dirt mile), G1+G3 at 9F, G1 at 10F in the world's biggest dirt race. Speed figures were the best of the last 20 years.

No comparison.

am I the only one who thinks that the graded earnings during the 3YO season should be weighted to count more than the 2YO earnings? Seems like what they did the year before is not always indicative of who should be in the race on the 1st Saturday in May.

Totally, I think a points system would be way more effective. Why should the Delta Jackpot be worth more than the Wood Memorial? It is a ridiculous system.

absolutely, it would help prevent horses getting in that don't belong and it would help to keep quality late bloomers in the mix. I don't know what the formula should be but that can be worked out.

I dont know how a point system should work. Do you get 1 pt for a grade III, 2 pts for a Grade II and 1 pt for a Grade I victory. Then why do you do with the races that pay down to the 5th, 6th, 7th etc etc place? I like the earnings and I think it works perfectly. You have to run to get in. And it is looking like you need to run more and more to get a spot.

I think that money earned in grass races shouldnt count towards the earnings used to determine Derby Contenders.
I also think that a scale where grade one earnings count more than grade two which count more than grade 3's should apply as well.
Its completely illogical for the Delta jackpot earnings to count as much as the Wood memorial.
Its a system that needs revising and progressive moves.

No two people in this game have alike opinions.......my opinions vary siginificantly with some of those whom I respect and value as credible.....It is the convictions they have based on their instincts and knowledge that make them solid horse analysts IMO....so it is general fundamentals and principles moreso than their opinions on specific things....

I don't have an answer but something is wrong. I think the BC should be weighed as heavily as 3YO races. Maybe earnings should be capped by Grade or you get different points for finishes depending on Grade.

Something is wrong that's for sure.

You can only match their 3-year-old credentials...anything else would be foolish and unfair since Bernie didn't have the chance to blossom into a better older horse......Oh yeah, GZ was crippled most of his 3-year-old year...sorry, I forgot....

I just have to say who I know in this game.

Joe - he is the man that parks my car at Hoosier. He always has great inside information.

Betty - she is always my server at Hoosier. She is fast and energetic. I alwasy tip her well.

Beatrice - she is the teller I go to at Hoosier. She also has good inside information.

Dominque - he is the bus boy at Hoosier. he doesnt say much but he does work hard.

These are just a few people who I know in this game. After all, they work at the track so they must be part of the game.

They could work something out, points for the top five in each race with G1s counting more than G2, counting more than G3s, counting more than ungraded stakes. Routes counting more than sprints, 3yo races counting more than 2yo races. It wouldn't be that difficult.