Great job, Travis on calling the two big days.

Agreed. Watched the majority on the CD feed rather than the TV.

Me too. Love the picture, hate the programming.

Materiality missed the break and got shuffled way back , he starts to pick it up on the backside and was really flying late. I don't think Pletcher runs him back in Baltimore , but he showed a lot to me to handle all he did today and could be a real Belmont contender. I don't know what happened to Upstart and Carpe Diem just spit the bit. California horses again in the Derby going 1,2,3. I thought Frosted also tried his best with an unfavorable pace set up.

Agree with all of these points. I think Materiality has nothing but improvement ahead. I was shocked that Dortmund made the lead, and that the pace was as pedestrian as it was. He could not have and a better trip, relative to the amount of ground loss American Pharaoh needed to overcome, and may be a nice miler.

American Pharaoh may be even better in Baltimore. I'd love to see the Trackus as he clearly ran further than anyone else, and while maybe not as physically impressive in victory, the stats will bear out how much extra work he had to do.

Frosted closing like a shot into an non-existent pace was visually, the most impressive performance outside of AP's victory. Danzig Moon stalking and staying on was great to see. He just gets better with every race.

I think the top five of six of this race might end up being the best in a very long while, maybe ever. I pray they make it sound all year. God what a year it might be. I hated Materiality in this race but he was VERY impressive today and I think he might end up being the second best horse of his generation. I think the winner is something special. I hope Materiality skips the Preakness because I think he's the ONLY horse that could win in Baltimore other than the Pharoah and I just want another crown attempt. I love Firing Line and Dortmund (and played them hard today) but this was their day to dethrone the Pharoah and they couldn't do it. What a race...what a day.

I love winning!!!

It feels so good. I just like being right. It really feels good to pick the right horse.:):):):)

I'm guessing by your spamming of every possible Derby related thread, that that feeling of being right is pretty foreign to you.

:tro:

Pace was NOT slow. Frosted closed into a 26 final quarter and didnt get past Danzig Moon. I dont get the Frosted love. Dortmund was projected to be on pace by TimeForm it was hardily a surprise. TimeForm has the race faster then Beyer relatively speaking to their scales. AP traveled 29 feet more then Firing Line and I think 69 more then Dortmund.

I figure Dortmund to Haskel AP to Travers.

Dead last Upstart is okay, just wasn't that into it.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/14546

He'd do real well in Ny bred races.

Based on what I read on here I really wanted to bet a little on Tepin but I only had 90 cents in my TVG account. (yes, you read that right). Wish I would have taken the time to add a little cash to the acct and bet her to win. Boo for me.

I didn't say the pace was slow, I said it was non-existential - RE: the expected front end meltdown that didn't materialize. Say what you will, 47.34/1.11.29 isn't lighting the world on fire - I believe Beyer got it right.

I'm guessing you didn't see how rank Frosted was getting away when taken back and had to be moved out to settle, and still came on better than than anyone else.

Thank you both. What an amazing weekend. Really hard to describe how awesome it was. Dream come true.

So happy for you!! Well done.

:rolleyes:

He's likely the most overrated horse in the crop. And that uncertainty I have about it being likely is only because Winstar keeps proving me wrong with their ability to select racehorses and stallion prospects.

Those guys are magical.

Keep rolling them eyes dude.

Sure looks like you had fun! :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqjFBLPBPOk

You have always had issues with making over the top statements and asserting them as if they are fact. But this is at a new level. Upstart, who until Saturday had been out of the exacta exactly once in 6 starts, had just earned the 2nd highest speed figure in the field according to Beyer, and the highest Thoro-graph number, was "likely the most overrated horse in the crop."

Think about hitting the brakes. I know you're thumping your chest about American Pharoah, but enough's enough.

Congrats on doing an excellent job and living the dream, Travis!

Will you be back at The Big A this winter?

If you consider posting an opinion as having issues, then I have those issues.

The rest of your post is ridiculous.

I never said Upstart is a bad horse, just that people are overrating the horse. Yes, he usually fires, and yes, he's an honest horse. Has he really run a race yet that merits the amount of attention he's received? Hell no.

Alot of otherwise pretty sharp people on here, for instance, picked him to win last Saturday, and I really had my mind boggled by that. To me, he was a stone cold throwout. I've seen too many nonsensical reasons to explain away his Breeders Cup performance as well, though I'm sure you are already contesting that in your head as you read this.

That second highest BSF going into the Derby was a complete joke, and most people knew that. How the hell does he go off at such long odds with such an apparently impressive resume??

Finally, your assertion that I'm thumping my chest sounds like sour grapes coming from someone who has been quite vocally opposed to betting AP since before the Breeders Cup.

You show me one instance on here where I was thumping my chest about him winning the Derby. You won't, because if anything, I publicly stated that I was somewhat underwhelmed by his performance, and in fact, thought he was going to lose while watching the race.

Try to be objective Nick, as you are accusing me of not doing myself.

What's enough is enough is your lack of objectivity regarding this topic.

Indian Charlie on Upstart
 

You're defending an indefensibly bad opinion.

He came from last behind a very slow pace to run an excellent second in the Champagne. Given how close he was to the pace, and how wide he was, there is a very good argument that he ran the best race of anyone in the BC Juvenile ( I know TimeformUS thinks it's close ). He buried the field in the Holy Bull, and won the Fountain of Youth impressively despite being too close to a pace that collapsed. He was once again taken out of his best game ( which is closing since you seem to know VERY little about this horse ) when an excellent 2nd in the Florida Derby. He has run well at every track, under all conditions, from sprints to routes, in every start before being eased in the KY Derby ( when something clearly went amiss ). Your opinion of him is in NO way backed up by his on-track performances yet you have the audacity to call someone else biased when judging him.

That takes balls....I'll give you that.

I speak my mind, and you, as a fairly well known public handicapper, should appreciate that going against the grain can be rewarding, and that often public opinion is wrong.

The three of you seem to think I'm saying Upstart sucks, while in fact, I think the horse is pretty good, but doesn't deserve the accolades that some of us have attributed to him.

I believe that people are overestimating each of these great starts that you cite.

In the Champagne, looking at his past performances, he was third one length back of a 46.1 opening half mile. That is hardly coming from out of the clouds, and that really isn't what I'd call a very slow pace. Yeah yeah, it's a one turn race, but wasn't that day on the slowish side (my memory of that is admittedly foggy).

How has the winner of the Champagne done since then?

The third place runner? He is one for eleven lifetime. That field was not very impressive, especially stacked up to some of the other two year old races.

I'll disagree with you on his BCJ performance. For God's sake, he got nosed out by a supremely overrated horse in Carpe Diem (the previous most overrated horse in the crop).

Go ahead and stick to your claim that there is a good argument to him being best in the BCJ, and I'll stick to my claim that he got trounced by the, at the time, likely third best juvie in California. Yeah, the pace was wicked and setup for the winner, I'll give you that, but to me that was not a super impressive performance.

His Holy Bull was real good, but I see that race as pretty shallow, except for the runnerup, who I think is now significantly better than he was in January.

The FOY, he ran another honest solid race, but buried a bunch of pretty unimpressive horses. He was 4/5 and won like he was supposed to.

Now to the Florida Derby. He gets beaten by a third time starter and again runs another strong solid race.

However, maybe it is you who doesn't know the horse. You say he's a closer, which he is to a degree, but pretty much every start he's forwardly placed, near the lead.

Here are his approximate positions in each start, at around the half mile.

MSW 5th by 2
Y bred stakes, 2nd by 4
Champagne 3rd by 1 in 46.1
BCJ 5th by 1.75 in 45.3
Holy Bull 2nd by a head in 48.4 over an unusually slow (historically speaking) track.
FOY 3rd by 2.5 47.4 again over a weird GP surface.
Florida Derby 3rd by 1 in 48.1 at GP again.

His Kentucky Derby is the first route in which he was even five lengths back, so I'm not sure I am the one who doesn't know this horse.

From my perspective, you have done a poor job of reading this horse. Do I think less of you for that (or the other two Upstart fan boys here), not in the least.

Maybe I could have worded my thoughts a little better, for as all I can see, I am being criticized over semantics.

Once again, you use your own biases to misevaluate performances. Have at it.

I answered you point by point in a straightforward and honest attempt to explain why I disagree with the Upstart fan club.

You, on the other hand, were dismissive and couldn't be bothered to address my points that were quite clear, and for the most part, unbiased.

Being called biased by a NYRA homer is precious, thank you.

Daresay you can't realistically explain away my points about him always being pretty close up to the lead, because if you tried, you would look like someone suffering from delusions.

That's fantastic!

A great call, Travis. Congrats.

Travis, loved your video on youtube calling the Derby. Awesome call!

Thank you, all! An amazing weekend.