:eek:

It's probably not a good sign that my top two are both at 50/1 in the morning line (Liaison is my other but that post position...)...

I'm not using Bode anywhere and although I really do like Gemologist have to use him along with Hansen, I'll Have Another, Union Rags and Went the Day Well underneath.

I lost Prospective, Sabrecat and Daddy Nose Best narrowing it down and Went the Day Well will be the next to cut if need be.

I am still using Liaison and in the top spot (in a couople of plays) but am feeling more confident about RS now that post postions have been drawn.

Romans was my daddy on the two big days at CD last year.

Sassy Image spoiled an otherwise lucky day for me in the '11 Derby.

Court Vision's win in the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile spoiled the fact that I had shrewdly spent a few hundred dollars keying Gio Point and Goldikova underneath in superfectas and spreading with ALL's in the other slots, except thorwing out only Court Vision entirely on the win end.

Just thinking of that race makes me nauseous.

It amazes me how many times I get beat by an impossible horse when I do that.

Same probably goes for Rick Dutrow Jr. and IEAH

I am boxing your picks and Serling's in a .10 super--I will be farting through silk by Saturday night.

Ignore DrugS at your peril, people.

I'm not sure you'll be able to get down on a 10-cent superfecta in the Derby.

I think the minimum is $1 all day long.

I may follow your lead and bring a jar of chocolate covered nuts to the track with me. It's going to be a long day Saturday.

Then I will do a $1 Matt box tri. He liked to eat nuts, too.

Seconded. Pretty much everyone I know had Apriority but not Aikenite.

Good luck everybody....

Is there any place to watch the works from the week online?

the Works was a staple for me, but seems they bailed on it. Thanks.

I can't get PPs from XB yet....Need to look at the Woodford for tomorrow's pick 3. Is there a link by chance?

Here ya go. http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

you can page down and get all the races he's got anything entered in.

doug, didn't see anything negative in your comments on gemologist. why is he not one of the top four for you?

I basically just prefer other horses a little more.

Pletcher horses always run gangbusters at the start of the new calender year ... they normally peak within the first 3 starts of the season -- and often have peaked by the second start.

Gemologist is a nice horse -- and I like that he's only had 2 races this year -- but he will need further improvment and from a bettting value standpoint...this is the time of the year when it's becoming safest to play against Pletcher horses.

that is my only knock on the horse. but that's a pretty big knock i think. thanks.

A la Drugs, if anyone's interested, Derby analysis here: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...eat-sheet.html

and here (with undercard): http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-analysis.html

Read the Oaks write-up earlier. Good stuff and good luck at the "windows" this wkend.

Respect the pick, and you seem to have put a lot of thought into it. Takes some nads to go out on a limb on a 50-1 shot.

:tro:

Good stuff Bri, good luck!

I'm in the Done Talking camp as well. I still believe that this race is going to set up for an off-the-pace type, and as hockey noted in his TDN comments, the horse has the right running style and experience navigating a large field to thrive in that kind of race. The question will be whether he's the right off-the-pace type.

Thanks guys. . . hearing less-than-positive stuff about Creative Cause.

He finishes in the Super and I lose had to take a stand and he and Hansen got the boot.

Well, it's a known fact that he had to have some hoof work done after he was shipped to Kentucky. I can understand the sentiment.

I was originally going to use him on top, now he'll probably be underneath somewhere.

Just out of curiosity, does anybody have any recent data on Doug O'Neill in races outside of California?

read on b'horse this morning that the trainer is getting miffed about all the rumors swirling. said he wished he'd never mentioned the hoof to begin with and says the horse is fine.

I asked the same last week or so, I think Ntamm answered if you do a search.

My internet sleuthing skills are failing me because I can't find it.

Great piece, Doug.

Regarding Dullahan, is there any question in your mind as to how he handles the dirt tomorrow? That's the one issue that has kept dogging me about him.

Also, what do you make of the recent fuss over Creative Cause's shoe/hoof? I'm inclined to ignore it, though perhaps at my own peril.

Personally for me, I feel like he will handle the surface just fine. My question is do you think he will handle the dirt in the face? He looked a bit uncomfortable early in the BC juvy behind horses. Once he got clear he seemed to run much better.

dullahan, from what i understand, has run at churchill three times already without a win. i think i'd be a little keener on him without knowing that.

two races were sprints

yeah, didn't get any details on each race out of the article. i like the horse, and think the distance is no problem. he just screams turf/poly to me.

Yeah and I thought the same thing about Animal Kingdom last year :zz:

Yep. :o

He ran well in the Juvenile:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm6PTqsSi9w

lol

except dullahan has starts on dirt-and hasn't won on it. i keep coming back to the horse, probably end up throwing a few on him just because i can't completely discount him. it's a doubt, not a surety. i guess i'm looking more for people to say stick with him than not!

I don't remember there being 1 hour 40 minutes between the Turf stake and the Derby when I was there, is that the norm now?

To me, Dullahan's early races have the look of an improving two-year-old who just happened to reach the next level while running on the turf and synthetics.

His first race (at Churchill) wasn't awful for a horse who developed into a closer, finishing third of seven in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint. In his next race (again at Churchill), a 6 furlong sprint, he ran about the same, got the same Beyer, and again finished mid-pack. Then, he started to develop and started to get better. Perhaps the move to non-dirt helped him out, or perhaps his progress just happened to coincide with his running on turf and synthetic. As mentioned above, his BC Juvenile race (at Churchill) wasn't bad, finishing fourth against a group of horses that have developed into some of the the top contenders in this year's Derby. That was also his sixth race in six months. After taking a break, he came back as a three-year-old, ran second by a length in a G3, and then won the Blue Grass, turning the table on the horse that won the BC Juvenile.

Dullahan seems to be moving in the right direction. He's got ample experience at Churchill Downs. He handles close contact with other horses. He's from the same dam as Mine That Bird (who ran exclusively on synthetics as a two-year-old, placed twelfth in the BC Juvenile, ran twice on dirt but never won a race on dirt prior to the Derby). The anticipated pace seems favorable for a closer (at least to be in the money), and, just my opinion, I think he's the best of the closers.

Stick with him.