I guess if that's what it takes.

Well, Archarcharch has been made 10-1 in morning line, I can't bet him from the #1 post at anywhere near 10-1 so back to drawing board.

Dialed In favorite at 4-1, Uncle Mo at 9-2, Nehro at 6-1...wow, 6-1 from the 19 hole!

Master of Hounds made 30-1, if he's near that come post time he's got to be considered, likewise Pants on Fire at 20-1.

fcking joke in a race as "big" as the derby that you draw the rail in a 2 turn race and its a auto toss........thats a joke......

Not an auto toss but one hell of a steep mountain to climb!

This is why future wagers s*ck.

yeah, its beter he looks to be best off the pace. its frustrating that when you come out of the gate you need to break right or crash into the rail:zz:

gosh darnit ding dang it ArchArchArch
 

I hope Jon Court can find a way. The #1 post used to be a good thing.

Is this the first Derby draw you've seen? For quite a few years, ESPN did it five horses at a time. I thought it was significantly more painless now than it was then.

Pat I need an update on Sweet Ducky's condition stat.

I'll take that as a "yes, this is the first Derby draw I've watched on television."

Did I hear Battaglia say Twice the Appeal is 20-1 strictly because Borel is on him? Does that seem irresponsible to anybody else?

No. You don't think the horse is going to take money simply because Borel is on him?

Of course he is, but at 50-1, I would consider playing the horse in some form or fashion even with the Borel bump. But at 20-1, what's the point? Just seems odd to hear an oddsmaker say he took a horse from 50-1 to 20-1 strictly because of a jockey.

Battaglia's job in posting the ML is to estimate the public's view, not give his opinion of a given horse's chances. The fact that Borel is on the horse will undoubtedly bring his odds down.

I don't really think he would have been 50-1 on the ML with a jockey like Dominguez or Rosario riding him. He probably would have been 30-1 at that point.

Surely Twice the Appeal with a different (but competent rider) would have to be shorter on the ML than the two 50-1 shots he made (Decisive Moment, Watch Me Go), right?

For what it's worth, Twice the Appeal looked very good physically today schooling in the paddock. I was with Jeff Bonde during the session, and he's pleased with how the colt is finishing up toward race day.

Smiling Tiger was schooling too. He's enormous and imposing.

11th (6:30) 137th Kentucky Derby
Odds By Mike Watchmaker

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1
4. Stay Thirsty, R. Dominguez, 30-1
5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1
9. Derby Kitten, J. Castellano, 30-1
10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1
12. Santiva, S. Bridgmohan, 30-1
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1
15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza, 12-1
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1
17. Soldat, A. Garcia, 20-1
18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1
19. Nehro, C. Nakatani, 6-1
20. Watch Me Go, R. Bejarano, 50-1

Irresponsible?
Absolutely not.
He is almost surely right in guessing that the horse will take a ton more money simply because of the jockey.

It's fine, I just hate seeing a horse who could be a juicy longshot at 20-1 on the m/l rather than the number he probably deserved.

In this group Twice the Appeal can hit the board.

There was an article in the DRF on Battaglia's ML vs. Watchmaker's.

Great post for Comma to the Top to come out running.

don't like arch/3's chances at all with the one hole. his running style plus that spot= a very tough time.

i think after looking over the field....i'd have to back midnight interlude. twice the appeal a longshot pick-partly the jock, but partly because his dirt starts have been very good.

If Archarcharch is 15-1 or more, would you bet him. I am glad to hear he has no chance or less of a chance as this will help his odds. Still like the horse. Good Luck to all.

Not sure I agree...the 2 and the 3 have no speed and the 4 and 6 are going to be sent right out. It's not ideal, but given his style and surroundings, not awful.

Agreed...However i am not worried and believe that he will make it:)...I have all the faith in the world on this horse...Lord said so

My thoughts exactly

the one post has become a bad spot with the advent of 20 horse fields, and the trip to the rail out of the gate. either you have to gun the horse to move outside, or take back and get behind others to move out. hell of a way to start a race with the inner rail dead ahead of you. there's a reason the far inside and outside spots get taken last.
like the horse, bet him. i'd still like to see arch win-but a hard task got that much harder with that draw.

I don't think the draw is a big deal. I prefer to look at other factors. For instance, Twinspired is ridden by Mike Smith. Mike Smith rode Zenyatta. And his sire, Harlan's Holiday, was favored in the 2002 Derby.

Mucho Macho Man was sired by Macho Uno. Macho Uno beat Point Given in the 2000 BC Juvy. Point Given was favored in the 2001 Kentucky Derby.

I think Midnight Interlude is interesting because he was sire by War Chant who ran in the Kentucky Derby.

Uncle Mo probably won't be favored, but his sire, Indian Charlie, was favored in the 1998 Kentucky Derby.

Brilliant Speed is one that you simply have to respect because his sire was the sire of 2006 Derby winner Barbaro.

Also, I'm sure there is a $10k claimer somewhere between now and Derby Day featuring a horse trained by John Servis. John Servis trained 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones.

^^^The only person that makes Dave Coulier seem funny

Twinspired may be draped in roses

I'm not a huge fan of Dave Coulier's, but the guy does one of the best Bullwinkle impressions. From his stand up act days, which considering i haven't seen him on TV or Film, he may be playing clubs again lol. Sorry, just thought i'd thow that in, continue thread as ya'll wish. :D

....o.k so im going with twinspired:$:

i only remember who he was because of who he once slept with.

jim varney was a comic genius compared to dave coulier. you ought to know.

I think you have OD'd on the Maker kool-aid.

you are really better than this...

I talked to Asher tonight about the long pauses in the draw. Apparently he had to wait for the guys on Versus to finish their schpiel on each horse. Thought it was annoying too.

some things just aren't meant for t.v.

The old double-draw selection was much more TV friendly. I liked seeing the owners/trainers' strategy in selecting their posts. The traditional pill pull isn't.

Just a thought here on the draw...

My thought is the Post Positions should be drawn in the order of graded earnings. The horse with the most gets to draw first and the horse with the fewest draws last. Therefore putting some weight on the earnings and rewarding the horses that have earned the most.
I compare the lead up to the derby to the regular seasons in football, basketball and baseball. The team that does the best is rewarded with home field advantage and the "easier" playoff schedule.
A horse that draws in last should not be afforded the same opportunity that the number 1 horse does.