Alternation is showing up in a bunch of peoples 'Derby top 10' ... I don't get him at all.

He's basically won three empty races in a row - all in less than spectacular fashion. Elite Alex was miles better than him two-back. Not only the horrible start - but also having to close into a very slow early - fast late race shape.

That would be smart IMO since long stretch should benefit his kick better and he shouldn't have to go as wide as expected in the Rebel.

In this day and age of ducking the competition and graded stakes for everyone, can't Havre de Grace find a spot that doesn't include Blind Luck?

ok the factor is your number one horse for the derby....but he has not even gone two turns yet. i'll admit the horse looks good...could even win. so you are not telling anyone anything worth something i would bet on. plus if history proves correct this horse will stop if he's 6-5 or some ridiculous price. because these are the kind of horses you love...i'd rather be ripping them up then winning on that horse if he's chalk,, minus a pic tick( i'll use him)...........sometimes(most times) i think you just don't get it...

Blind Luck isn't even close to her main competition.

Glint (Spiral) and Dreaminofthewin are supposedly going to scratch.

Dreaminofthewin has already turned in the SCR card.

While I agree, I'm not sure Elite Alex won't be parked out in this race stalking and come up empty in the lane.

two scratched from the Rebel
 

Dreaminofthewin and Glint scratched bringing field down to 11 starters. Should have no real impact as both were longshots,

please expound.

Elite Alex will SCR from Rebel for next wk's LA Derby..

Isn't there always a horse like this? Poltergeist from a couple of years ago and I think a horse named Plesant Storm last year? Horses that show some signs at Remington Park, come to Oaklawn and win an allowance race in visually nice fashion, and then just get totally outclassed when they move into Stakes company.

It's a very strong field and Blind Luck has been woefully slow in both her races this year.

Rebel Scratches:
3, 10, 11, 13

Well least 1 trainer figured out that the LA Derby is worth more and the horses ain't that great

You're no help :), I might go 5 deep here. :confused:

Speed is holding up pretty well today.

1,4,5 covers it IMO and if you want to take a stand 1,5 are not bad at all.

looking real good for The Factor

how do they not look at the 8th?

Looks like Octave II was second again.

I think Thunder Gulch got tired from the layoff, he was right in position on the turn.

Terry Wallace :wf

No one was beating Havre De Grace today. First time Larry Jones trumps Dutrow, Wolfson, Mitchell, etc.

I thought I might have imagined that. LOL, I see why people complain so much about him now.

Yeah, I know man.

Point being, she really never was that great to begin with, and was beating nothing.

She does enjoy the second spot however.

Huge run from The Factor.
Sway Away is actually less then I thought he was and thats pretty bad because I thought he sucked.

Sway Away ran like crap but he also got molested around the first turn. No one was winning this race from back there.

I hope The Factor wins the Arkansas Derby just like he did today.

Every War Front so far wants to be a speed router. Looks like a great stretch-out sire in the making.

Your hope will come true. This is actually the same hope I have for UM. I hope he crushes The Wood.
The Factor can wire this Derby. He can control start to finish.

I actually hope he goes straight to the Derby and takes a sh!t-ton of $$. You never know nowadays.

If they are smart with Caleb's Posse, they go straight to the Lone Star, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana Derby route and make a load of cash. He ain't bad.

The Factor was an easy winner in the Rebel, Archarcharch ran third throughout, showed signs of stamina as he came again in deep stretch to finish a head behind second. Think Archarcharch could be a factor at Derby distance but day clearly belongs to The Factor

This is looking like the perfect storm coming into the Derby w/ The Factor and Uncle Mo.

Who molested him? Gomez or himself?

The horse couldn't handle going that slow early on. He was coming out of a scorching fast paced sprint race - and Gomez tried to take him back in a two-turn route without a lot of pace.

All of his "trouble" was self made - he simply couldn't relax going that slowly early on.

They either have to try him right on top of the early pace going a route - or cut him back.

Uncle Mo will most likely be wide and a few lengths off of the early pace.

The pace pressure for The Factor will certainly come from somewhere else.

The Factor is obviously a contender on the Trail and he's probably going to run in the Derby. How does this effect Uncle Mo? I like the way the Derby is shaping up. I thought Archarcharch got a good learning experience being trapped inside backing off and then when asked for run was not able to catch up to The Factor. These next 12 weeks will be very interesting.

I don't dispute that.

I don't really remember anyone saying she was a superstar. Too bad her sire isn't Indian Charlie. Then she'd be awesome.

Seriously, who is that in the picture?

I'm not sure what you can take from the Rebel other than The Factor can get 8.5 furlongs when he's alone on the lead on a speed favoring track. I'd still take the 2nd and 3rd place finishers, at the price they will be, in a 20 horse field any day.

Lone Star Derby is on turf this year I think, and Ohio Derby is only 100k.

You didn't mention the Iowa Derby which is probably a perfect spot for him.