Hard not to like The Factor's race - he missed some training coming in and glorified sack of oats Garcia didn't need to have him so forward early on.

Horses like him often dominate the route preps and help collapse the pace at a realtive short price in the KY Derby. If he stays healthy - it's going to be a bitch to beat him at 8.5f or 9f

4/5 with indian sway sratching was a belated valentine:{>::$:
this horse gets a mile all day long and i dont believe 1 1/4 is beyond reach with bafferts skill it may be a stretch but not compltely beyond his breeding the california best of the west rep for the derby

I'm not sure about that - the horse who went with The Factor finished last by 18 lengths ...

They went 1:07 1/5 for 6fs - and the final 1/8th of this race was run in 13.03 over a race track that is obviously yielding crazy fast times. I thought Sway Away got a great setup and his late run was an optical illusion as they crawled at the end.

Speed is typically leathel in Derby preps at 8.5fs or 9fs. Everyone is so worried about finishing up well at the tail end of those races - and no early pressure leads to the superior horses at shorter distances dominating.

Look at the Risen Star - a lot of naturally very fast horses - and they loaf early. Machen lost the Risen Star Stakes because of the tactics used in his N1X alw win. If Howard didn't try to transform him into something he's not - he wins that alw race by 20 lengths on an easy lead - and wires the Risen Star yesterday. Instead he puts an anchor to him and earns a 24 pace figure in his alw race. Now, he's got to try winning the Risen Star closing wide into a soft pace against a pace aided horse like Mucho Macho Man who was super in the Remsen.

When Sway Away passed him (on the gallop out,) The Factor put him away again.

looked to me that garcia eased em late but i will watch again
that first 1/4 was grueling and he still had gas i like this horse alot

Garcia didn't ease anything - he was out of horse in the last furlong.

7fs is a very tough distance when you have to run hard the whole way.

watch it again my friend he was not working him at all!!!
he put the whip away and was not even urging him
i just watched it again on bloodhorse

They did crawl at the end and Sway Away got a nice setup. But I think it's the kind of race he'll get a lot out of. His trainer was 6% off this type of layoff the last 5 years, with an ROI of $0.73. He showed enough speed as a 2 year old to think he'll be able to stay a lot closer than he did today as the distances increase and if we're talking about the Derby, he's the one I want out of the race.

The Factor is obviously talented, but it's hard for me to believe he's going to stretch out much farther effectively and how much longer is Baffert going to be able to keep him sound?

Not working him at all? He was in a full drive the entire length of the stretch. He had no horse left at all.

Sway Away is getting some love and Im really not sure why. Just because someone knows the connections/owner does not make a horse better then it is.
Sway Away sat last off of a crazy duel, saved all the ground and only made up ground at the very end as the best horse started to get a bit tired. He has every right to get a bit tired. Its his 3rd career start, first in 2 months off of very few workouts.

All of facebook was in love with Sway Away's race - I don't disagree that he could move forward .. but closing sprinters with perfect setups have a very poor record in Derby preps - where The Factor - if he stays healthy - will almost be assured of cakewalks in his final preps.

A horse like Giacomo was everybody's standout #1 Derby prospect in California going into his 3yo year. He got wired by Going Wild at 9fs. Got wired badly by Consolidator going 8.5fs. And the Santa Anita Derby was a merry-go-round race with Roger Stein's General John B 2nd at like 87/1.

A horse like Lookin At Lucky didn't even belong on the same racetrack with Sidney's Candy at 8.5 and 9fs last year - everyone wants to finish in those races. If The Factor is healthy - he could Balto Star them in his next two

You're not supposed to win a 7f race by running the first 6f in 107:30.

I don't care about Facebook or the other stuff. If you said I had to bet The Factor or Sway Away in the Derby, I'm betting Sway Away.

Bonde isn't known for having them ready off the shelf. It was his first start in 6 months. He finished well enough to think he'll get a lot out of the race. He has more speed than he showed today...at least he did last year and I think he'll be more involved early next time.

ive watched the race three times his tongue was not draggin
there is gas left in this horse;s tank martin was not urging the riens at all at the end
we will have to see next time when he goes longer
i believe garcia had the wire and sway measured
he has worked this horse knows the track and this was not his first rodeo

I don't think the time is right at all. I find it hard to believe they got the second quarter in 21 and 2 and the third in 23 and 4. Something isn't right.

How are 2 people seeing the same race so differently? Ill go to Cal Racing now and be back in 5 minutes with what really happened.

Why in the hell would you want to bet on either of them in the Derby?

Sway Away hasn't even attempted to route yet - he's basically a very lightly raced closing sprinter with a little dressed up form now - who is way behind in the game and has to play catch up.

Maybe he really is a true router all along ... certainly possible... but why not let him prove it first next time out - while he's likely going to be wildly overbet.

rock its on bloodhorse too

ps love the debate its great!

You're fooling yourself. Garcia had him in a full drive the entire length of the stretch and he was staggering in the final 1/8th.

Go post a thread about the wind in 1912.

I said if I had to choose between the two. Not that I want to bet either one.

Why would you have to choose between the two now for a race in May?

Are they skipping all of their remaining preps and running in the Ky Derby next time out?

This is basically why winning 3yo fantasy contests against fields of over 2k people is a peice of cake ... people make horrible strategic blunders trying to guess what will happen 3 months from now and forgetting 4 weeks from now is far more important.

agree garcia is working him at the top of the strech and uses the whip mid
watch the final 16th he stops all urging about three jumps from the wire
i will admit i have a biased eye
ive been watching this horse since his maiden and love speed horses
but whats going to be even more fun is if he comes away healthy and goes distance next time

Lets start with the actual race. Again Sway Away IMO never really runs. He sits the dream of all dream trips. 2 horses brutally attack The Factor on the front end, at this time Sway Away is sitting last on the rail. Off the pace and saving ground. IMO Sway Away just ran OK and if I liked him coming in or bet him I would wonder to myself how he will ever get a better trip. I would wonder how it would be possible for him to get a better setup and as the races get longer and the crazy speed horses like City Cool are not running how I can get close to The Factor. I would also seriously question anyone saying he will just get better going long. Why? Stretch out sprinters now are the thing going long? I don't get it. He with the quick hype already reminds me a bit of Imperial Council. I get the trainer stats and all, but the good horses make the trainers look great.
Back to the front end of the race. City Cool is a slug, but he has serious early speed. He has 21.3-22 flat 45 flat type of real dirt speed. The Factor just disposed of him early on. Premier Pegasus also has early gas, serious early speed. If we are talking trainer stats, the stats are good with this one. He went out and went after The Factor early also, he also was a causality of The Factors true raw talent and speed. Premier Pegasus is OK. Thats what I was most impressed with. People need to understand this horse has had 2 workouts. He has basicley done nothing in 2 months.
As for actually watching the stretch run, it looks to me like Garcia is riding him pretty hard still. One could say he is in a full out drive the entire stretch run. Its OK though, remember the brutal attack inside and outside early on. He had every right to get tired late. His talent carried him home.

The factor was totally spent. He was probably short considering he only worked twice since his last race. That speed duel certainly didn't help.

I am not convinced that horse can't get two turns.

Considering he entered the race with two career starts off a six month layoff Sway Away ran a solid race. Sure, the pace was fast but that track is so incredibly tilted against closers.

Does he have a lot to prove still? Absolutely but he surely gained a lot from today's race.

I should have known this was all a way of you to mention the fantasy nonsense. You got me. Well done.

He looked like the right horse to bet on paper in that race. I was certainly going to pick him to beat The Factor on Kasept's show Friday.

I'm not sure he did anything he shouldn't have done in that race today - and I go on facebook and read a lot of people drooling over his "great" performance today.

He got tired, but he's still moving very well for a horse who ran 43.41_ 107:31 (pending the Da Hoss' investigation) the first 6f of the race.

The Factor entered the race off of a 2 month layoff. With 3 works in those 2 months. Sway Away had 6 workouts since The Factors 1st of 3. Not to mention Sway Away has been pointing to this race since Thanksgiving, if not before that. The Factor was just confirmed for the race less then a week ago because of foot problems.

you turned it into a fantasy discussion....unless PG 1985 did before you - which I don't know - because I didn't read his post. But, either way, you should know that you want neither of these horses for the Derby right now.

I hope The Factor never wins again. It's probably the most annoying name for a horse in 20 years.

Sounds like a Jersey Shore character.

People on facebook also drool on Uncle Mo's fan page about he and Awesome Maria going on dates. Compared to the people on Facebook, Thoroughbred Champions looks like a meeting between Andy Beyer and Steve Crist.

Is it me?

At no point did I say I wanted either. All I said was if I had to decide between the two of them in the Derby, I want Sway Away. That's it. Nothing else other than that. I'm not making future bets on either and I'm not rushing to bet either back. Just that if you made me decide between the two in the Derby, I'd take Sway Away.

If I had to make a list of horses I like in the Derby The Factor isn't near it and Sway Away isn't either (yet). I didn't say anything about liking either one in their future preps. Just that I think Sway Away has a better chance of getting the 10 furlongs at Churchill on May 7th than The Factor does.

Especially with the black cloud in The Factor's corner.

Yeah - I know.

The Uncle Mo page is disturbing.

That's a fantasy horse racing decision.

You should play!

I'm playing the RTTR. Be afraid...be very afraid.

Brethren's is pretty bad too.

Some of the chicks that post on those pages are real whack-a-doo's..Them country chicks stay with horse cack in their mouths.

One thing for certain after reading those. Throughbred horses are arrogant fuks. Everything is Me-Me-Me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxUuDPNbkJk